This article is part of our DFS College Football series.
Welcome to our breakdown for the New Year's Day Slate. We've got a four-game offering with eight quality teams. Alabama and Auburn carry the two highest implied totals while Georgia and Baylor are bringing up the rear in that regard with implied totals of 23.5 points or less.
Below, you'll find our suite of DFS Tools along with a cheat sheet and my position-by-position breakdown. Happy New Year!
DFS Tools
Cheat Sheet
| Team | Opponent | H/A | O/U | Spread | Implied Points | Plays Per Game | Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM | Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Michigan | N | 58 | -7.0 | 32.5 | 65.58 | 173.8 | 1.1 |
| Auburn | Minnesota | N | 58.5 | -4.0 | 31.25 | 74.50 | 184.9 | 1.1 |
| Wisconsin | Oregon | N | 51.5 | -3.0 | 27.25 | 68.54 | 222.8 | 1.3 |
| Michigan | Alabama | N | 58 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 68.75 | 183.4 | 1.2 |
| Oregon | Wisconsin | N | 51.5 | 3.0 | 24.25 | 69.62 | 191.2 | 1.4 |
| Minnesota | Auburn | N | 54 | 7.0 | 23.5 | 67.33 | 208.4 | 1.5 |
| Georgia | Baylor | N | 41.5 | -5.0 | 23.25 | 66.92 | 215.1 | 1.0 |
| Baylor | Georgia | N | 41.5 | 5.0 | 18.25 | 66.92 | 198.5 | 1.2 |
| Team | Opponent | H/A | O/U | Spread | Implied Points | Opp. Rush Yds/G | Opp. YPC Allowed | Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G | Offensive S&P+ | Opponent Defense S&P+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Michigan | N | 58 | -7.0 | 32.5 | 119.08 | 3.03 | 1.5 | 3 | 9 |
| Auburn | Minnesota | N | 58.5 | -4.0 | 31.25 | 127.92 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 37 | 30 |
| Wisconsin | Oregon | N | 51.5 | -3.0 | 27.25 | 106.85 | 3.23 | 0.3 | 10 | 14 |
| Michigan | Alabama | N | 58 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 135.08 | 3.82 | 0.8 | 19 | 6 |
| Oregon | Wisconsin | N | 51.5 | 3.0 | 24.25 | 102.38 | 3.38 |
Welcome to our breakdown for the New Year's Day Slate. We've got a four-game offering with eight quality teams. Alabama and Auburn carry the two highest implied totals while Georgia and Baylor are bringing up the rear in that regard with implied totals of 23.5 points or less.
Below, you'll find our suite of DFS Tools along with a cheat sheet and my position-by-position breakdown. Happy New Year!
DFS Tools
Cheat Sheet
| Team | Opponent | H/A | O/U | Spread | Implied Points | Plays Per Game | Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM | Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Michigan | N | 58 | -7.0 | 32.5 | 65.58 | 173.8 | 1.1 |
| Auburn | Minnesota | N | 58.5 | -4.0 | 31.25 | 74.50 | 184.9 | 1.1 |
| Wisconsin | Oregon | N | 51.5 | -3.0 | 27.25 | 68.54 | 222.8 | 1.3 |
| Michigan | Alabama | N | 58 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 68.75 | 183.4 | 1.2 |
| Oregon | Wisconsin | N | 51.5 | 3.0 | 24.25 | 69.62 | 191.2 | 1.4 |
| Minnesota | Auburn | N | 54 | 7.0 | 23.5 | 67.33 | 208.4 | 1.5 |
| Georgia | Baylor | N | 41.5 | -5.0 | 23.25 | 66.92 | 215.1 | 1.0 |
| Baylor | Georgia | N | 41.5 | 5.0 | 18.25 | 66.92 | 198.5 | 1.2 |
| Team | Opponent | H/A | O/U | Spread | Implied Points | Opp. Rush Yds/G | Opp. YPC Allowed | Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G | Offensive S&P+ | Opponent Defense S&P+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Michigan | N | 58 | -7.0 | 32.5 | 119.08 | 3.03 | 1.5 | 3 | 9 |
| Auburn | Minnesota | N | 58.5 | -4.0 | 31.25 | 127.92 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 37 | 30 |
| Wisconsin | Oregon | N | 51.5 | -3.0 | 27.25 | 106.85 | 3.23 | 0.3 | 10 | 14 |
| Michigan | Alabama | N | 58 | 7.0 | 25.5 | 135.08 | 3.82 | 0.8 | 19 | 6 |
| Oregon | Wisconsin | N | 51.5 | 3.0 | 24.25 | 102.38 | 3.38 | 0.6 | 18 | 17 |
| Minnesota | Auburn | N | 54 | 7.0 | 23.5 | 115.5 | 3.41 | 0.8 | 7 | 4 |
| Georgia | Baylor | N | 41.5 | -5.0 | 23.25 | 143.85 | 3.69 | 1.2 | 34 | 16 |
| Baylor | Georgia | N | 41.5 | 5.0 | 18.25 | 75.69 | 2.65 | 0.1 | 24 | 2 |
Quarterback
Bo Nix, Auburn 
($6,800 DK, $8,900 FD) vs. Minnesota
Finding a defense to pick on in this slate is tough with seven teams ranking inside the Top 20 in S&P+ and four of those seven rank inside the Top 10. Minnesota is the lone team outside the Top 20, checking in at No.30 defensively. That's at least a starting point.
Nix is still far from a finished product as a passer but he's not afraid to take shots deep down the field and having a receiver like Seth Williams certainly doesn't hurt. He's also a rushing threat with 301 rushing yards and seven scores on the ground this year.
Mac Jones, Alabama 
($7,000 DK, $9,800 FD) vs. Michigan
Jones is more appealing on DraftKings where he accounts for just 14 percent of your salary and is the third-most expensive quarterback whereas his FanDuel price tag takes up over 16 percent of the cap and makes him the priciest quarterback on the board. Although, that could keep his ownership in check over on FanDuel...
As for Jones himself, it's a tough but not overly intimidating matchup against the Wolverines, who rank ninth in defensive S&P+. Jones threw at least three touchdowns in each of his starts this season and it appears he'll have his full compliment of weapons in the passing game. There isn't a slam dunk play at quarterback on this slate but Jones has the best projection of the group.
GPP Play
Tanner Morgan, Minnesota ($6,500 DK, $7,600 FD) vs. Auburn
There's plenty of risk here as Auburn's defensive line could wreck this game from the get go for the Gophers. There's also upside, though, as Morgan has the highest YPA of any qualified quarterback on the slate and threw 28 touchdowns on just 289 pass attempts. Also, it's not a weak number overall, but Auburn allows a slate-high 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. With a slate this small, it's hard to find a way to separate yourself from the pack. But Morgan represents a decent pivot off the chalk.
Running Back
Najee Harris, Alabama ($7,200 DK, $9,700) vs. Michigan
I'll preface this by saying that Jonathan Taylor is the top running back play on the board in terms of his projection, but you already knew that.
With Harris, we have a running back who has been on an absolute tear to close out the season. He racked up 13 total touchdowns in his last six games and accounted for 818 yards from scrimmage. There's also very little competition for carries when it comes to Harris, who owns a 46 percent market share of the Tide's rushes. And J.K. Dobbins showed us that this Michigan defense can be run on.
Zamir White, Georgia 
($4,000 DK, $5,900 FD) vs. Baylor
Georgia is going to be fielding a ragtag bunch Wednesday with so many players sitting out. DraftKings' price on D'Andre Swift of just $4,000 is a strong statement that they're not optimistic of his chances of suiting up or at least seeing a big workload. Brian Herrien is also out, so this could be White's chance at a breakout game. I'd lean toward White over James Cook or Kenny McIntosh among the remaining Georgia running backs, though McIntosh is an interesting GPP target on both sites as well. Baylor also gives up the most rushing yards per game on the slate.
JaTarvious Whitlow, Auburn ($6,000 DK, $8,100) vs. Minnesota
Whitlow is the clear top option in the Auburn backfield and that was never more clear than in the Tigers' win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl when he commanded 47 percent of the rushing share. He took 16 carries for 114 yards against the Tide and added 29 yards receiving.
In terms of the matchup, Minnesota gives up 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game and 127 rushing yards per game.
Wide Receiver
Seth Williams, Auburn ($6,100 DK, $7,900 FD) vs. Minnesota
Williams is the obvious pairing for Nix if you're attacking an Auburn passing game stack. He owns a 29 percent target share and has 801 yards and eight scores on 105 targets. Williams also had at least 30 percent of the targets in six of the last eight games. Look for him to be heavily targeted against the worst defense on the slate.
Quintez Cephus, Wisconsin 
($5,300 DK, $7,200 FD) vs. Oregon
This would be the only piece of the Wisconsin passing game I'd be interested in targeting. Cephus is the top target in the Badger passing attack, commanding a 27 percent target share while no one else has more than a 12 percent share. He's also extremely productive with that target share, putting up 10.1 yards per target and locking down six touchdowns on 52 catches. With Oregon giving up a slate-high 222 passing yards per game, Cephus is positioned to take advantage of this matchup.
Tyler Johnson, Minnesota 
($6,600 DK, $8,800 FD) vs. Auburn
Johnson is set to finish out his storied collegiate career Wednesday against Auburn after notching his second 1,000-yard season. Auburn has a respectable secondary but it gives up the third-most passing yards per game on the slate (208.4) and a slate-high 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. Johnson, meanwhile, caught 74 of his 106 targets for 1,114 yards and 11 touchdowns and owns a 37 percent target share. With Minnesota expected to be playing from behind, the Gophers could abandon the run and lean on the passing game, and that'd mean a heavy target volume for Johnson.
Other Suggestions
- George Pickens, Georgia ($4,900 DK, $6,700 FD) vs. Baylor
- Juwan Johnson, Oregon ($5,800 DK, $7,400 FD) vs. Wisconsin
