This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Texas State vs. Troy
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Texas State vs. Troy Betting Odds for Week 6
Spread: Texas State -13 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook); Troy +13.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 57.5 (Over, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook); 58 (Under, -110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas State -485 (DraftKings Sportsbook); FanDuel +420 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Texas State vs. Troy Betting Picks for Week 6
Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect that both Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease are game-time decisions for Thursday. It previously suggested Crowder was out and Kilcrease would start.
The Texas State Bobcats (2-2, 0-0) and Troy Trojans (1-4, 0-1) meet in a Sun Belt Conference matchup at the Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala., and kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed and streamed on ESPNU.
Texas State opened with two victories over FCS Lamar and UTSA in the first two outings, but it dropped a 31-28 decision at home against Arizona State on a Thursday night in Week 3, while falling 40-39 at NRG Stadium in Houston against Sam Houston as an 11.5-point favorite. The Bobcats are just 1-3 ATS in four tries while cashing the Over in all four outings.
For Troy, we've grown accustomed to seeing this as a mid-tier power routinely competing for conference championships and bowl games. However, Jon Sumrall left the program for the Tulane job after the 2023 season, going 23-4 with a 16-2 record in conference play. Sumrall's teams were also 12-0 inside the SBC's West Division while going an impressive 13-1 at home.
Under Gerad Parker, the new head coach, Troy has already lost twice at home this season, while going 0-4 against FBS teams, including a 13-9 loss last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite over Louisiana-Monroe as the Under (45.5) cashed.
Troy has managed just 334.8 total yards per game while managing 189.0 passing yards and 21.5 PPG, and defensively, the Trojans are allowing 175.2 rushing yards per game and 25.8 PPG.
RB Gerald Green went for over 100 rushing yards against ULM last time out, picking up the pace after QB Goose Crowder was knocked out with a shoulder injury. He is a game-time decision for Thursday, as is backup QB Tucker Kilcrease, so it will be worth keeping an eye on their statuses. It would behoove Thursday's starter to get the ball to WR Devonte Ross, who has 29 receptions for 529 yards and six touchdowns, all but one of the team's receiving scores.
Texas State's offense is far more impressive. It averages 451.8 total yards per game and 294.0 passing yards per game through the air, while posting 37.8 PPG. Defensively, the Bobcats allow 340.5 total yards, 207.5 passing yards, 133.0 rushing yards per game, and 27.0 PPG.
QB Jordan McCloud has completed 69.3% of his pass attempts for 1,141 yards, 12 TDs and 3 INTs in four games, and he has three different receivers with at least 222 receiving yards and three scores.
Now, looking at the series history, Texas State has a lot to overcome. Troy leads the all-time series 13-1, winning 12 consecutive meetings since the Bobcats' only win in the series at home in San Marcos on Oct. 4, 1997. Troy won down in Texas last season, 31-13, and it is 8-0 all-time against Texas State at home.
While the road team has covered the past two meetings while going 4-2 ATS in the past six in the series, again, Texas State has NEVER won at Troy in eight tries. The Trojans are catching two touchdowns on their home field. Yes, Troy has been very bad this season, something which is unusual for it. But it has covered two of the past three outings, and while an overwhelming majority of the bets are on Texas State, the sharps are backing Troy. Let's go against the public and take the points, too.
Texas State vs. Troy Expert Pick: Troy +13.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Texas State vs. Troy Predictions for Week 6
As far as the totals are concerned, Texas State has crushed the Over in all four games to date, scoring at least 28 points in every game while going for 34 or more points three times. It has also allowed 35.5 PPG in the past two games while conceding 27 or more points in three different games, including against FCS Lamar.
For Troy, the Under has cashed in three of the past four games, but at home, the Trojans have scored 26 or more points in two of three outings. Defensively, while Troy has allowed just 12.5 PPG in the past two games, it has allowed 28 or more points three times in five games this season.
However, while the Bobcats have cashed high in all four games, the Under has hit in two straight meetings, three of the past four in the series, and in three consecutive battles at Troy.
Playing Under 58 is a good bet, with the Trojans catching nearly two touchdowns. If you're familiar with teasers or simply playing alternate spread and totals, backing Troy +21.5 (-280) and Under 61.5 (-164) comes in at +105 as SGP, and that's a fabulous value, too.
