College Football Picks: NC State vs. Georgia Tech

College Football Picks: NC State vs. Georgia Tech

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

College Football Picks: NC State vs. Georgia Tech

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6-4 Georgia Tech hosts 5-5 North Carolina State Thursday evening at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Both teams are well rested off a bye last week. The Wolfpack have been horrible against the spread in 2024, sitting a 2-8, while the over has cashed at a 6-4 mark. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is 5-4-1 ATS while the under has hit at an 8-2 clip. The Yellow Jackets were an elite team ATS last year as an underdog, and while that trend hasn't held in 2024, they're just 1-1-1 as favorites this season.

NC State vs. Georgia Tech Betting Odds for Week 13

Spread: Georgia Tech -8.5 (-110 DraftKings); NC State +9 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)

Total: Over 51.5 (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 51.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Georgia Tech -315 (FanDuel Sportsbook); NC State +270 (BetMGM)

The spread opened at (-9.5) and has ticked down slowly throughout the week ever so slightly. It's largely at (-9) at most books, though a few (-8.5) exist as of Wednesday afternoon. That may become more common before kickoff, but it's hard to envision it getting below the magical touchdown mark.

The total, too, is moving downward a touch more sharply, opening Sunday evening at 53.0. It would appear the trend is for this to keep moving downward, and given the Jackets' proclivity on unders, it makes sense and should be bet as soon and as high as possible.

DraftKings' moneyline number on the Jackets is the best out there, sitting at (-340) or greater elsewhere after opening at (-325). The moneyline hasn't moved nearly as much, sitting near where it began the week (NC State +260).

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NC State vs. Georgia Tech Betting Picks for Week 13

Health is always of paramount importance, and it's a big question mark for Georgia Tech. QB Haynes King missed two games with a significant upper-body injury, and while he returned in their last game against Miami, he wasn't healthy enough to throw, attempting just six passes while Aaron Philo handled the bulk of passing responsibilities. Additionally, leading rusher Jamal Haynes left after one quarter for unspecified reasons, and his status has yet to be updated. That ambiguity may be what's caused the spread to slide some but we'll assumingly get clarity prior to kickoff.

As a result, I'm currently staying away from the spread. North Carolina State has some very uneven results, getting blown out by Tennessee and Clemson, while also losing to Duke, Syracuse and Wake Forest. They have only two ACC wins, and there's little to suggest a breakthrough is coming. As such, I'm not putting the Jackets on much of an upset alert and have some interest in them covering once we know they're at full strength.

That leaves us with the total, and while I don't like being a trend bettor, that's where I land. Georgia Tech used ball control and heavy rush attempts to keep Miami's potent offense at 23 points and I expect they'll have similar success from whoever takes the carries against a Wolfpack defense that allows 4.4 ypc. Most importantly, it keeps the clock moving, limiting the Wolfpack's possessions. The downward trend makes this risky, and I could absolutely support a teaser or alt-line parlay on Georgia Tech (-2.5)/under 59.5 (or thereabouts). Georgia Tech averages 27.7 ppg but has scored more than 28 points only three times this season. The Wolfpack have topped 24 points just once in their last four games.

NC State vs. Georgia Tech Expert Pick: under 51.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

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NC State vs. Georgia Tech Predictions for Week 13

Remarkably, given that there's only one more week left in the season after this, North Carolina State is playing just their third road game. Georgia Tech isn't known for an incredibly hostile atmosphere, and that's notable with the Wolfpack starting a true freshman quarterback in C.J. Bailey. And it's amplified by the fact they can't run the ball (105th), and the Jackets are elite against the run (16th). An upset likely requires Bailey to shoulder the load, and it's not something I want to bank on.

Having another 10 days to recover, I'm expecting we'll see a fuller version of King under center for Georgia Tech, which will make them less predictable offensively. Neither side generates many turnovers defensively, but the Wolfpack cough it up more frequently. Misdirections, RPOs from King and a timely takeaway give the Jackets a home victory.

Georgia Tech 28-21

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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