College Football DFS: Friday Slate Week 16

TGIF and another opportunity for some College Football DFS! We have the entire spectrum of match-ups on this special Friday Night as we have some slugfests and potential shootouts. Also note that we do need to consider the weather since we're in the middle of December.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Ball State @ Buffalo (-14.0) O/U: 67.5
Oregon @ USC (-3.5) O/U: 63.5
Nebraska @ Rutgers (Even) O/U: 54.0
UAB @ Marshall (-5.5) O/U: 42.0

We're being teased into that Nebraska/Rutgers match-up as it has some sneaky potential to be a competitive shoot-out, however, it's also a Big 10 game with few implications. With that in mind, I think the Buffalo/Ball State and the Oregon/USC game are the smash spots for this slate. What I like about that Nebraska/Rutgers game is that it will spread out some of the selections in cash games and it will also give you a chance to differentiate from the other games in tournaments. I won't completely fade the Cornhuskers and Scarlet Knights, but I don't think I would utilize stacks from that game either.

WEATHER

Buffalo, NY – Cold (~31 degrees & clear skies)
Los Angeles, CA – Warm (~60 degrees & clear skies)
New Brunswick, NJ – Cold (~30 degrees & clear skies)
Huntington, WV – Cold (~35 degrees & clear skies)

INJURIES

QB Noah Vedral, Rutgers (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Vedral left the game last week and was seen in crutches, so it's very possible Artur Sitkowski (DK $5,700, FD $7,700) will get the nod against Nebraska. He's worth a play in tournaments as I'm not sure many will go here and it will allow you to stack up at other positions.

RB Vavae Malepeai, USC (knee) DOUBTFUL
Malepeai is dealing with a sprained MCL which is expected to keep him out against Oregon. That sets up well for Stephen Carr (DK $3,200, FD $5,900) and Markese Stepp (DK $3,600, FD $5,500) who both should be popular plays in the slate.

QUARTERBACK

Kedon Slovis, USC (DK $8,000, FD $10,700) vs. Oregon
With Slovis being the most expensive QB on the slate, yet still affordable on both sites, there's no reason not to play another QB in your superflex with this play. Slovis has tremendous upside and has thrown five touchdowns in each of his last two games. I can definitely see USC chucking the ball around against Oregon. I don't mind also playing Oregon's Tyler Shough (DK $7,800, FD $10,500), but I think I would go somewhere else for my other QB recommendation to differentiate yourself from other entries and play some other studs.

Drew Plitt, Ball State (DK $7,600, FD $9,400) vs. Buffalo
I'm not really sure how Ball State made it to the MAC title game, but I do know that Plitt is a pretty sure bet to have high volume attempts against Buffalo. Not only does the Vegas line suggest they will be behind in this game, the Cardinals lost their star running back, Caleb Huntley, who opted out of the rest of the season to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. In his last three games, Plitt has a total of 11 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACK

CJ Verdell, Oregon (DK $4,200, FD $7,400) vs. USC
With the masses anticipated to go with the expensive Jaret Patterson (DK $10,000, FD $12,500) and for good reason, I think it's an opportunity to fade that noise and go with some extreme value plays. This will allow you to get the two quarterbacks in your line-up and some stud receivers. That starts with Verdell who was dealing with an undisclosed injury in Week 14 and that's likely the reason for the discount in price. When healthy, Verdell is a complete back and showed that in the Ducks' first two games with a couple of 100-yard rushing games and a combined seven catches on eight targets.

Dedrick Mills, Nebraska (DK $5,000, FD $7,100) vs. Rutgers
Rutgers has the worst rush-defense on the slate as they are giving up 184.4 rushing yards per game. That sets up perfectly for Mills who has received double-digit carries in four of his five games this season. At his price, it should be pretty easy for him to return value with that probable volume of carries and he typically has a chance for at least one touchdown each and every week.

Stephen Carr, USC (DK $3,200, FD $5,900) vs. Oregon
While I prefer to stack Slovis with other USC receivers, I do think Carr is so cheap that it's feasible to also slip him into the line-up if you're in a pinch with your remaining funds. I wouldn't depend on Carr for production as he hasn't shown he's returned fully from his knee injury, but I do like him in tournament plays in case he is fully healthy.

WIDE RECEIVER

Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC (DK $7,500, FD $9,500) vs. Oregon
Since we're already rolling with Slovis at QB, I think the safest stack is with St. Brown as he has the potential to set the bar at the wide receiver position. He's had at least nine targets in four of his games and a total of six touchdowns in the last two contests. There's no debate when it comes to predicting who the top target is in the Trojans offense. Considering the savings that are available at the RB position in this slate, you can feel comfortable spending at WR.

Antonio Nunn, Buffalo (DK $5,000, FD $7,300) vs. Ball State
Nunn is the top pass-catcher for the Bulls and has 20 catches for 353 yards and two touchdowns on 30 targets in five games. That's the type of production that suggests that he could have a breakout game as he did have a pair of 100-yard receiving games with a touchdown in Buffalo's first two games. There's a chance that Buffalo and Ball State could turn in to your typical MAC game which would be beautiful for DFS backers.

Justin Hall, Ball State (DK $7,200, FD $9,200) vs. Buffalo
Going will Hall makes perfect sense if you play his quarterback as he has a stranglehold on the target share for the Cardinals. He's not priced nearly high enough for a guy who pushes double-digit targets each and every week and has not scored less than 15 fantasy points in any game this year. Against Western Michigan, he was the man with 10 catches for 175 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. He also provides bonus rushing production with at least two attempts in all six games this season. He's my favorite play for a Ball State team who will likely be forced to throw the ball to compete with Buffalo.

With soft pricing in this slate, there's a great chance to play all of these guys, but here's a few dart throws that should be primarily utilized in tournaments or if you want to spend up at RB:

WR Bru McCoy, USC (DK $3,200, FD $5,000)
WR Artie Henry, Marshall (DK $4,300, FD $6,500)
WR Johnny Johnson, Oregon (DK $4,500, FD $6,700)