This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
11 games come our way in the season's second day of the year at DraftKings, where a $5,000 first-place prize is available for the taking. We get underway at a slightly earlier than usual 6:30 p.m. EST. Of the 11 games, only Baylor vs Auburn has a single-digit spread, and only three games come with a point total under 140 points. We're expecting to see some blowouts, so I'm not targeting much of anything from the lower end schools. Iowa's tempo leads the way with a 153 point total, while Maryland/Mount St. Mary's comes in at a slate-low 132 points.
Top Players
RayJ Dennis, G, Baylor ($9,100)
At Toledo last season, Dennis didn't face a Power 5 team until March, where he earned 30.2 DKP while shooting just 5-for-19. I don't necessarily anticipate that type of volume in his step up to Baylor, but he also dished out eight dimes, likely giving him multiple paths to fantasy scoring. Baylor lost nearly 46 points from it's backcourt from a year ago, plus freshman phenom Ja'Kobe Walter isn't fully healthy and is making his collegiate debut, which should afford Dennis ample opportunities. Pair that with this being the tightest spread of the slate with a fair total, and Dennis should be in a spot to succeed.
Ben Krikke, F, Iowa ($7,700)
The Iowa frontcourt has massive stats to replace with the departures of Kris Murray and Filip Rebraca. Enter Krikke, who had a 26.9 percent usage rate at Valparaiso last season. I'm not sure how well he'll translate into the Big 10, but that's irrelevant Tuesday facing North Dakota. We know the Hawkeyes' pace isn't going to change, and their expected 87 point total is well worth backing Krikke at this moderate price. He had 14 points, seven boards and two assists in 25 minutes during an exhibition.
Middle Tier
Jay Heath, G, Georgetown ($6,900)
With eight transfers and three freshman, the Ed Cooley era at Georgetown opens with a lot of unknowns. That's going to create some value, but with no exhibition games to guide us, there's also a lot of ambiguity. Heath is one of the few holdovers, so he's the safest bet. While the Hoyas are massive favorites and could play a deep rotation, I think we're going to see the opposite for at least the first 3/4 of this game. Heath averaged a mere 21.8 DKP last year, so I don't love this price point as it relates to upside. But a 3x return seems like a lock, and he did provide 4x or better in three of his final seven starts last year. Simply put, he's the known amongst the unknown for a team expected to score 80+ points. UNC transfer Dontrez Styles ($3,700) looks like he could draw the start with Ismael Massoud (hand) out, and could offer nice value.
Kel'el Ware, F, Indiana ($6,700)
We don't want to build a lineup strictly based on exhibition results, but it's very worth nothing that Ware led the Hoosiers in scoring in both of those scrimmages, posting a combined 34 points and 17 rebounds. He didn't have huge success at Oregon as a freshman, but his per-40 minute stats were very usable. Indiana is in their post Trayce Jackson-Davis era, leaving a huge hole to fill. The game has a solid 144-point total and reasonable 12.5 point spread, so Ware and the Hoosiers' starters should see plenty of run, and the Eagles won't have much size to match the 7-foot, 242 pounder.
Value Plays
Nahiem Alleyne, G, St. John's ($3,800)
I'm burying the lead here, unintentionally, as Red Storm forward Joel Soriano ($9,600) looks like one of the best/safest plays on the slate. I have no problem playing multiple pieces from this lineup given the 80-point implied total. And again, exhibition box scores should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, St John's played Rutgers in their preseason, which is seemingly more meaningful than most scrimmages. And Alleyne saw 35 minutes and took 17 shots. The former Hokie and Husky has shown offensive prowess in the past, and the price point is far too favorable.
Dylan Cardwell, F, Auburn ($3,800)
This matchup with Baylor is one we should want pieces of on both sides; it's got a narrow spread and solid 144+ point total. The problem is both sides have a plethora of new pieces and unpredictable rotations as a result, so why not take a punt play as a GPP flier? Johni Broome is expected to be healthy enough to play. What if he's not? Or what if he gets into foul trouble against Baylor's bigs? Cardwell averaged 13.1 DKP in 13.5 minutes last season, which is a 3.4x return with no growth. He had a massive nine points, 10 boards, three assists and four steals in 21 minutes in the Tigers exhibition with Broome hurt. There's next to no risk at this price, and for GPPs, we live and die with the what-ifs, which can result in a massive return.
