This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
12 games are on the docket for Thursday evening again, with tips spanning from 6:30 to 11:20 p.m. EST, where again, the seven later games are broken out into a second slate. Four of these games come with point totals of 150 or greater, so it's a slightly-higher scoring slate than the afternoon. As such, we've also got a larger player pool at the high-end, with four options coming in at $9,000 or greater and a decent nine forwards priced at $8,000 or more.
We'll try to find some balance below between less obvious high-end options, while aiming for some value in the middle tier in positive game scripts in order to squeeze as many top players into lineups as possible.
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Top Targets
Ace Baldwin, G, Penn State ($8,700)
There are a plethora of pay up options in plus spots, but Baldwin is my preference in that he's not the most expensive, but he's shown the upside to compete with those guys. Baldwin simply never leaves the floor, averaging 39.2 minutes across Penn State's last 13 games, averaging a robust 16.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.5 steals. They faced Indiana twice in the regular season and scored 83 and 85 points, as the Hoosiers weren't able to slow PSU's 55th-ranked tempo, per KenPom. Baldwin was brilliant in both of those outings, averaging 45.25 DKP. He's topped 30 DKP in six straight, four times going for 39.5 or better.
Zyon Pullin, G, Florida ($7,900)
Grabbing a high-end piece of the Gators here makes too much sense as they are the only team with an implied total over 80 points. I'd prefer to save a little on Walter Clayton or Will Richard as the matchup is just as good, but many others may prefer that, so lets target Pullin and try to save elsewhere. He's had the Bulldogs number in two matchups, averaging 18.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals while shooting 52.6 percent from the floor. He recorded all of that production with just a 15.3 percent usage rate, as the Gators scored 102 and 88 points against Georgia. At this price, he'll be hard pressed not to return a 4x value.
Middle Tier
Jamison Battle, F, Ohio State ($6,300)
It's another gross slate for mid and bargain tier forwards, so we'll take a shot on Battle in a paced up spot against Iowa and their 26th-ranked tempo. Battle is in reasonably solid form, averaging 18.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.8 assists over his last six, showing a 17.5 DKP floor and 40.5 DKP ceiling. That's a wide range, but four of the six games did result in at least 25 fantasy points. We'd like some additional peripheral numbers, but if the pace is true, Battle should score enough to provide 3.5x with room for more. He earned 22.25 DKP in a regular-season meeting, but only played 26 minutes, so there's growth potential.
Jayden Nunn, G, Baylor ($5,800)
Nunn is all about safe, stable production, budget balance and affording spending on other high-end options. He's reached double-digit fantasy points in 15 straight, averaging 12.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.1 steals across 32.3 minutes. The game that preluded this safe stretch came against Cincinnati, where he was limited to 15 minutes due to foul trouble. Seven times in this stretch, Nunn has topped 20 fantasy points and twice over 30 fantasy points, so there is some potential. But ultimately, we've got an expected close game where Nunn will see a healthy stable of minutes, with production hopefully fallling in line.
Bargain Options
Jacob Groves, F, Virginia ($4,900)
Groves has started three straight and hit double-digit fantasy points in each of those opportunities. That first start came against Thursday's opponent in Boston College, and it's possible the staff likes the matchup here. Groves is a stretch forward, shooting a whopping 47.9 percent from 3-point range, and that seems to fit the Eagles' defensive weakness, as BC ranks 241st in defending the three. As always, we know with Virginia the game will be low scoring, which always offers up the appeal of their players being low rostered.
Luke O'Brien, G, Colorado ($4,600)
It's a travesty that O'Brien and his 6-foot-8 frame is only guard eligible, but I still like the player, matchup and price point. O'Brien has started four straight in the absence of Cody Williams, and this play would be completely out the window if Williams (game-time decision) returns here. He's averaged 14.0 DKP across 27.0 minutes, and has had success even had success as a reserve in a prior matchup with Utah, posting 17.5 DKP in 23 minutes. We've got a nice 152-point total with Colorado being 3.5-point favorites, so there should be some opportunities available for O'Brien here.
