This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Three separate slates combine for DraftKings Saturday college hoops contests. 31 games are included throughout the loaded day, 62 teams, and 310 starters! We'll try to identify some chalk and some different plays while obviously not being able to touch on everyone. Trust your gut, try to be different!
Main Slate
This slate gets going at noon EST, and features a $10,000 total prize pool tournament, the largest of the day, so we'll spend the most time here. 12 games gives us a plethora of options, with tips spanning until 2:00 p.m.
UNC/Syracuse and Kentucky/Texas A&M are our two highest-total games, at 154 and 155.5 points, respectively. Virginia/Wake Forest is our low point at 129.5, and while I never advocate simply writing these games off, and Virginia is certainly struggling, Wake Forest isn't proficient enough for me to trust.
It's a clear bounceback spot for the slate's highest-priced player in Hunter Dickinson who really let me down Wednesday, largely due to foul trouble. If you can afford him, I like the play as it could come with minimal roster percentages due to that last out. Providence's Devin Carter doesn't have a plus game script, but it hasn't mattered of late. He looks as safe as they come while still offering massive upside.
Top Players
Jaemyn Brakefield, F, Mississippi ($7,600)
We noted the two top-priced options above, and I like both of Creighton's top guards here a lot in Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman, but if we're looking to build a balanced lineup with low roster percentages, I think the Rebels as a unit are going to be overlooked. And with my known proclivity to take forwards in the upper tier, Brakefield makes a ton of sense. In his last 10 games, he's averaging 16.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.3 steals across 30.4 minutes. He's had more games with over 30 DKP (six) than under 20 (two), which include a mamouth 43.25 against Florida last time out and 44.0 against North Carolina State. Vanderbilt has minimial size inside, and rank 344th against the 3-point shot defensively, where Brakefield hits 40.0 percent. If that last stat interests you, Matthew Murrell averages six 3-point attempts and shoots at a similar success rate, while also being priced under $8,000. There could be a successful Rebels stack here.
Wade Taylor, G, Texas A&M ($7,600)
This may be too obvious of a spot for Taylor, who is priced super favorably for his potential. This game we know we want to target with the high point total, and this salary makes Taylor an easy fit in most builds. He's off a 2-for-16 shooting outing, so we'll expect a bounce back in what could be a wide-open contest. Kentucky is sound defensively, but play at the nation's 12th fastest tempo, per KenPom. Taylor has a 30.7 percent usage over his last five, and we can further forgive his inefficiency with his peripheral numbers capable in three other categories. Taylor posted 30 DKP at Kentucky last year despite scoring only eight points. It's obviously not the same Wildcat team, but the result shouldn't differ much, giving us a 4x return with potential for far more.
Middle Tier
Pierre Brooks, F, Butler ($6,600)
Hopefully a safer play to pair with our next option. Brooks has scored in double-digits in every game to date, averaging an impressive 16.4, seemingly creating a decent floor, having been under 20 DKP just twice in 16 games. He doesn't rebound at a high level, but at 240 pounds, he's going to have a nice bulk advantage against the Pirates, who are undersized outside of Jaden Bediako, who will math up with Jalen Thomas. The Bulldogs are expected to score 75 points, so again, the floor should be safe, and there should be room for five or so rebounds to help out.
Jonas Aidoo, F, Tennessee ($6,000)
A pure upside play here for GPP purposes, as Aidoo has shown 53.25 and 41.0 DKP upside, resulting in a price tag as high as $8,200 on the season, and at $7,400 his last time out against Mississippi State. He's maddeningly inconsistent, so paying that number anytime is crazy, but given this discount, it should be all systems go. He's failed to provide a 3x return this number just four time in 15 outings. The matchup isn't great offensively, as Georgia ranks 41st in defensive efficiency, but that should open up rebound opportunities at worst. And the Bulldogs only have one rotational big to match up with Aidoo, so he should get a few matchup-based offensive opportunities.
Bargain Options
Elliot Cadeau, G, North Carolina ($4,800)
This is a game I want to be very careful with. It figures to be popular with the high implied point total, but neither team is lighting it up offensively of late and both teams are statistically sound defensively, with Syracuse sitting 38th and UNC at eighth, having held three straight opponents under 60 points. I personally do think this game opens up a bit and we see some scoring, and that plays to Cadeau as much as anyone else here. He has been inconsistent, but used change of pace on the dribble last time out to get to the rim, and his calling card is setting up his teammates, which he'll be able to do if the game script plays out as thought. It's a nice sub-5k in to this game.
Darrion Trammell, G, San Diego State ($4,200)
This simply looks like a nice bounceback opportunity for Trammell, who earned just 3.0 DKP against San Jose State last time out thanks to three fouls in 20 minutes. He'd previously been in double-digits in every game prior, nine times providing at least a 3.5x return on this reduced priced. He's been priced as high as $6,900 with an expected statistical leap this season, and he's regressed, but we can buy that dip here for a safe floor on the cheap. The game comes with a 150.5 point total and a narrow 2-point spread. Trammell averages 24.5 minutes and figures to see ample chances throughout.
Afternoon Slate
The afternoon slate gets going at 2:15 p.m. EST and includes nine games. We've got a just a $500 first-place prize for the taking, but with only 234 other lineups to beat, that's a fair contest to sharpen skills in and is very attainable.
Florida-Arkansas is going to be our obvious game to target with a massive 165.5 point total. Purdue-Penn State is the only other game north of 145 points and comes with the Boilermakers huge 20.5-point favorites. Their star center, Zach Edey, is slumping a bit from a fantasy perspective, and the price is just $10,000 here, his lowest point of the season. I don't hate that as a play, so lets see if we have enough value to make it happen.
Top Players
PJ Hall, F, Clemson ($7,800)
Speaking of slumping, Hall hasn't topped 30 DKP in four straight, and hasn't been better than 23.0 DKP in three straight. That sounds like a buying opportunity to me. This should be a fascinating matchup with him and BC's Quentin Post, both of who have the ability to bang and stretch the floor. Clemson is reeling, having lost three straight in conference, all by double-digits, and are in dire need here. They are solid favorites with an expected 81-point total thanks to the Eagles' 147th-ranked defensive efficiency.
Tramon Mark, G, Arkansas ($7,500)
Arkansas is a mess rotationally, but the one constant seems to be Mark. He's averaging 31.2 minutes over his last five with a 24.2 percent usage rate, scoring in double digits every time out, averaging 18.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists. If we accept this game is one where we need shares, Mark at worst provides stability.
Middle Tier
Jaeden Zackery, G, Boston College ($6,200)
I'm admittedly struggling in this middle tier, and think this slate sets up for a stars and scrubs type lineup build. Load up on the 7k type players, and round it out with a plethora for 5k and under bargains. But if you're looking for balance, perhaps Zackery is due a bounce back. He's really struggling in three conference games, shooting just 20.0 percent (5-for-25) but the volume and minutes (31.0) are there.
Will Richard, G, Florida ($5,600)
Richard fits the mold of Zackery, and comes cheaper and in a better matchup. He's been woeful in two conference games, averaging 3.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and a 12.1 percent usage rate across 25.5 minutes. In six prior games, he averaged 15.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and a 20.7 percent usage rate across 30.8 minutes. An pessimist could say there's a clear declining role while an optimist will say he's shown capable and is due a rebound. The only thing I can back for the latter is the Gators' expected 85-point total, which Richard can get 10+ of. But if he can flirt with 20 DKP and allow us to spend freely on four or more 7k+ options, that can work.
Bargain Options
Mason Gillis, F, Purdue ($4,800)
Perhaps this price is a touch too high for a reserve with inconsistent usage, but it's also the cheapest viable in to a team that can flirt with 90 points. The large spread can either mean garbage time production for Gillis, or unfortunately as we've seen in prior blowouts, he's not part of the scoring barrage and cedes minutes to further bench choices in the late two media time outs. But Penn State pushes pace which I expect Purdue to thrive on, and Gillis can spell Edey as necessary. He's failed to reach double-digit DKP just three times all year, and none since December, and is off a season-high 16 points scored, having now topped 21 DKP in three of four.
C.J. Walker, F, Central Florida ($4,600)
This is a rarity for me where we can target some cheaper forwards and possibly load up on high end guards as a result. Walker has seen his minutes rise in each of his four games to date, culminating with a start and 31 meaningful minutes last time out against Kansas. He's been worht 19.0 DKP or better in two of his last three, and the matchup with BYU offers a moderate pace boost where the Knights can score 70+, and Walker comes with a 24.1 percent usage rate, a rarity for a new-found starter at this price.
Late Slate
If you've made it this far, there isn't a reason to not play the evening slate. We've got the same stakes available as we do in the afternoon; $500 to first place in DK's largest tournament, with $2,000 total in prizes. But we should have ample action, as seven of the 10 games included here have totals of 150 points or higher. We tip off here between 6:00 and 10:00.
Bad news is I can't go to my aces in the hole. Over the last week we were able to use Texas Dylan Disu and Virginia Tech's Sean Pedula with wild success. Disu gave us a nearly 6.8x return in two outings, while Pedula went for nearly 7.8x! This blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally, but their prices have risen substantially, so it's back to the drawing board.
The good news here is we don't have a player priced north of $9,000, which means we can pay up and still build a well rounded attack.
Top Players
Tamin Lipsey, G, Iowa State ($8,200)
Perhaps this slate's to buy the dip? Lipsey hasn't gone over 22.5 DKP in his last two, but had previously shown a 34.5 DKP floor across his last 10. Oklahoma State is solid defensively and doesn't play fast, but one thing the do is turn the ball over, at 19.2 percent of the time. That seems to set Lipsey up to maintain the 3.3 steals he's averaging. Pair that with some scoring and additional peripherals, and we should get a floor and ceiling we all like.
Fardaws Aimaq, F, California ($7,800)
Aimaq is just a safe play. He's coming off of his second-worst performance of the season at 25.5 DKP, a game in which he fouled out in 24 minutes, suggesting he can always do better. This is slightly less appealing if N'Faly Dante is back for the Ducks, as he gives them needed size but you wouldn't expect him to be a full go. He's shown the upside to match that of some of the other sub-8k players mentioned in other slates, though I don't expect it here with Cal being heavy underdogs on the road. But he seems like a can't miss floor play to build around given season-long success.
Middle Tier
Wooga Poplar, G, Miami ($6,700)
There seem to be a reasonable amount of options in this price tier. Poplar is my favorite for a floor. He's seemingly at full health, playing 34 minutes in his return from three-game absence, where he provided 26.0 DKP, which was his third-worst output of the season. Virginia Tech comes in 166th in defensive efficiency, Miami needs a bounce back performance after a shocking loss to Louisville, and this game has a tight spread with a high total. Poplar presents as a safe in to it.
Cody Williams, F, Colorado ($5,900)
This slate's free square. Williams returned from a seven-game absence to post 25.5 DKP points with a 28.8 percent usage. More importantly, he wasn't limited, playing 38 minutes. He's been under 20 DKP just twice when active, and this game comes with a 156.5 point total where the Buffaloes are favored substantially.
Bargain Options
Mekhi Long, F, Virginia Tech ($4,900)
Long has posted just two single-digit DKP outings all season, and has a reasonable 18.1 percent usage across 19.0 minutes in his last six games. He doesn't stand out in any category, but has started in five of those games. It's not a direct correlation to the potential absence of Hunter Cattoor, but if he's forced to miss Saturday, the Hokies will need to shift their rotations. Long was a capable producer at ODU in two years prior to his transfer, and can offer some upside if forced into minutes. And with a 2x floor at worst, he's a solid pay down.
Denver Jones, G, ($4,000)
Jones has started 10 straight, which may be all we need for a 4k priced player. He's not going to win you a slate, as his ceiling has been 17.75 DKP. But he's unlikely to provide single-digit fantasy points, and gives us a cheap in to the Auburn lineup that is firing. They're 16.5-point favorites, exepcted to score 82+ points, and that can lead to meaningful production early, and him running the show with the second unit late.
