This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Our final big slate of the season is upon us with Saturday's Final Four two-gamer, where DraftKings is offering a $25,000 first-place prize for a $18 entry, giving a one in 6,535 chance at the big win. It's an absolutely fascinating slate, with no player priced north of $8,200, which will make for incredibly deep lineups. We also got one game with a minuscule 131.5 point total, and another at 149.5, so we know exactly where teams will be built from.
There is some disparity in pricing across each team's starting lineups. Miami and UConn are the highest expected scoring teams, and none of their starters are priced below $6,100. Conversely, San Diego State doesn't have a starter priced at $6,000. Ample aces are available, ample bargains too. It's going to make for fascinating builds. Let's see if we can find an edge.
It also sadly represents the end of the season, and my writing opportunities as such. It's been a grind, a blast, and we've found some success throughout the year. Cheers and many thanks for reading and tolerating me. Until November! Let's end with a bang.
Top Tier
Norchad Omier, F, Miami ($8,100)
Miami largely remains a better real life team than a fantasy team. Nijel Pack ($6,700) is a scorer only, while we're chasing upside with Jordan Miller ($7,700) and Isaiah Wong ($7,200), both of whom can pop off, but we can get that from other rotations too. I'm always a firm believer in building around top forwards, so I'm all in on Omier here. Sure, there's foul risk, and it's a challenging matchup against Adama Sanogo ($8,200). But Omier has a nice floor with rebounds, stickbacks and solid free throw shooting. Give me 30 DKP to build around and get different elsewhere. I'd further add the expectation is most lineups build around Sanogo here, giving us a lower-used Omier to add to the goal of differentiation. To be fair, there's nothing cost prohibitive about using both.
Alijah Martin, G, Florida Atlantic ($6,800)
In highlighting a guard, I have some struggles. We touched on Miami's options above, none of which are wrong. Connecticut has some surging guards that aren't consistent scorers. So I'm going to bank on Martin's opportunity here. He's averaged 11.5 shot attempts across the Owls 11-game winning streak, and most recently is averaging 16.2 points and 5.3 boards across his last six. I'm certainly worried about shooting lines in the NFL stadium, and San Diego State's defense is obviously no slouch. But with solid rebounding and a few timely shots, we've got potential.
Middle Tier
Tristen Newton, G, Connecticut ($6,400)
This is the tier where differentiation can further permeate. The pricing is so low across the board, lineups can absolutely live with a plethora of stars and grabbing 10 DKP elsewhere. So perhaps we can go with lineup-average pricing and secure 20-30 DKP with lower roster percentages. We fully expect this game to shoot out, yet Newton is the Huskies' fourth-priced option. He's averaged only 21.6 DKP across the team's tournament run, but went for 31.25 or more in four of UConn's six games prior. That can make him an unsung hero and DFS slate buster, assuming he's ignored.
Nathan Mensah, F, San Diego State ($5,700)
I'm heavily fading Vladislav Goldin ($6,600) here, as I suspect high usage, so where do you round out your frontcourt? It's Mensah for me, as opposed to Alex Karaban ($6,100) for block upside. Mensah has swatted at least two shots in six straight, which I hope plays up against FAU's undersized, guard-heavy rotation.
Bargain Tier
Matt Bradley, G, San Diego State ($5,600)
Are we kidding with this price point? Bradley isn't in great form, hitting just 6-of-27 (22.2 percent) across his last three. But nine shots nightly is terrific for a sub 6k player, and he's a proven streaky player, going 16-for-39 (41.0 percent) in the preceding three games. Volume isn't in doubt, and Bradley gets involved on the glass as well.
Nicholas Boyd, G, Florida Atlantic ($5,500)
Do I like Boyd more than some of his opponents starters? Probably not. There is certainly a reason to grab three Aztec starters at sub-6k pricing as low-end building blocks. Boyd doesn't generate his fantasy appeal strictly upon 3-pointers in this guard-heavy lineup, something I don't want to chase in the Texans stadium. He's averaged 6.2 rebounds across his last five, and the points come organically thanks to the Owls' "we over me" approach. He's had a 14.75 DKP floor in that stretch, suggesting we'll get at least a 3x return.
