Saturday's main slate at DraftKings is an interesting one. We've got what's becoming a standard $7,000 total prize pool and $2,000 first-place prize in a contest that tips at noon EST. It features eight games, with a rare mid-major inclusion with VCU against George Mason. It's a far lower scoring slate than we've seen on previous Saturdays. Three games come with totals around 165, but nothing exceeds that and Kansas - West Virginia presents with a paltry 133.5 total.
College Basketball DFS Picks for Saturday, January 10
Only Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner ($10,200) is priced in five-figures. He's surging and the Commodores have an 88.5 point expectancy, so I see no reason to fade him unless you want to save coin and go with teammate Duke Miles ($8,700), who has shown equally elite upside. The only real injury of note is LSU's Dedan Thomas ($8,300), who is doubtful. Jalen Reece ($4,200) has started two straight but hasn't performed, posting 16.25 and 9.5 DKP in 36 and 29 minutes, respectively. He looks like a lazy bargain option.
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College Basketball DFS Top Players
Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas ($8,800)
I'll be really interested to see roster percentages here. It's the lowest total of the slate, seemingly not making Peterson targetable, but he's still priced down from his season ceiling ($9,700), and he's been a man on a mission in his two games since injury crushed his non-conference season. Peterson has an insane 45.7 percent usage rate in two games since returning to action, averaging 29.0 points and 6.0 rebounds. He's not distributing at all, so the low point total in the game is a concern. But he's still got 4x+ potential simply on volume and remains attractive under a 9k price.
Alex Condon, F, Florida ($8,200)
This slate, for me, doesn't present with clear and obvious games to target or stand out options as required payups. I went to the Condon well in Tuesday's column and he rewarded with a nice 34.5 DKP. He's gone for at least 28 DKP in seven straight, giving us a stable 3.4x floor. He'll play 30 minutes here and Florida should flirt with 80 points. It's just a stable play at a fair price, nothing sexy about it. If we're chasing a higher ceiling, consider Houston's Kingston Flemings at the same price.
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Middle Tier
Aday Mara, F, Michigan ($6,600)
Michigan's presence on slates is always a challenge. They're always going to have the highest implied point total, 91.5 on this slate, but they're deep and it can be any number of options having spike production. Mara is pretty unique for a 7-foot-3 guy, as he's a willing distributor in addition to swatting shots, so he doesn't need to score or rebound at a high level to produce. Two teams with top 50 tempo ratings sets this up for a game to potentially stack. But singularly, Mara is a nice pivot form Yaxel Lendeborg ($7,700), who's priced down and will likely be a popular option as a result.
Ven-Allen Lubin, F, North Carolina State ($5,900)
Two trends converging here lead me to Lubin as my singular play on the Wolfpack, who are very stackable on this slate with an 83.75 expected point total. Lubin has been priced as high $8,200, so we're buying the dip while that prior price point shows his double-double potential. Florida State ranks 13th in tempo, so the 'Pack are going to score. Lubin also has eight offensive rebounds in his last three, a spot where FSU struggles. Stick backs, a plethora of boards and team totals give us a ceiling.
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College Basketball DFS Value Plays
DeWayne Brown, F, Tennessee ($4,000)
Minimal risk, reasonable reward here. Brown has started five straight, and while he struggled in the first of those, he's gaining footing, averaging 7.3 points and 6.0 rebounds. Fouls limiting his minutes are an absolute concern against a talented, veteran Florida front court. But a 3x return is certainly possible while freeing up our spending. I don't see this as a ceiling play however, but it's an opportunity to zig where everyone else zags on Felix Okpara ($4,200).
Sam Alexis, F, Indiana ($3,900)
Alexis seems to show a 3x potential as a punt play to grab some higher priced options. He's started six straight, only twice being under 12.5 DKP, giving us a 66.7 percent chance at a 3.2x return. Is that lazy analysis? Maybe, we're not chasing prior results. Nebraska is undefeated, but an underdog here. They're not a good rebounding team, seemingly setting Alexis up to hit at least five points and five boards.
