This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got another busy weeknight in the college hoops world, with teams from every major conference taking the court. Here are my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
Mississippi 
at Arkansas 
The Rebels put themselves in a great position for a potential at-large bid, winning 11 of 13 games during the non-conference season. They defeated BYU, Louisville (on the road) and Georgia, with their only losses coming against Purdue and Memphis.
The Razorbacks have a similar resume, though it doesn't have the same sheen. Arkansas also won 11 of 13 non-conference games, including a win against Michigan, but that's the extent of their accomplishments. The Razorbacks had opportunities for other notable wins when they played against Baylor, Illinois and Tennessee (on the road), but they lost each game by five-plus points. KenPom is projecting Arkansas will lose nine of its remaining 17 conference games.
When Ole Miss has the ball Wednesday, it will have an even matchup against the opposing defense. The Rebels rank 33rd in offensive efficiency, giving them a fair chance against the Razorbacks' defense, which ranks 29th in efficiency. Arkansas doesn't have any clear defensive weaknesses, but Ole Miss isn't awful in any one category on offense, either. The Rebels have the fourth-best offensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams, and they rank 109th in effective field goal percentage, giving us a team that usually makes the most of its scoring opportunities.
When Arkansas has the ball, it faces a stiff challenge with the opposing defense. The Razorbacks rank 57th in offensive efficiency, which isn't bad, but it's noticeably worse compared to Mississippi's defense, which ranks 30th in efficiency. An important question in this matchup is whether or not Arkansas can hang on to the ball. The Razorbacks are close to the D-1 average in offensive steals, however, the Rebels are exceptional at picking pockets, boasting the seventh-highest defensive steal percentage in the nation. The Razorbacks rank below average in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, so they might fall into trouble if they're not extra careful with the ball on Wednesday. Mississippi ranks 60th in effective field goal percentage allowed, so it usually makes life difficult for opposing offenses no matter where they're on the court.
All things considered, I'd rather take the better offensive team, the same team that's also highly effective at causing turnovers on defense. Road games are tough, but they're still winnable. I'm taking the points with the Rebels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi +3.5
Colorado 
at UCF
The Buffaloes earned an impressive non-conference victory when they defeated Connecticut during the Maui Invitational, 73-72, but unfortunately, that's the full list of their accomplishments. Colorado had opportunities to collect resume-builders several times, but lost to Michigan State, Iowa State (twice) and Arizona State, all by double-digit margins. These kinds of facts don't usually bode well for a team.
The Knights, meanwhile, have a pair of noteworthy wins: they beat Texas A&M in the season opener and more recently won at Texas Tech. Both opponents rank in the top-16 of KenPom's overall efficiency standings, so UCF appears to have a high ceiling, even though it got crushed in its most recent game when Kansas came to town.
Colorado's biggest issue is its offense. It ranks 134th in offensive efficiency -- a poor ranking for most teams that compete in high-major conferences. An even bigger problem is its inability to protect the ball. The Buffaloes rank 325th in offensive steal percentage, and they also rank 285th in non-steal turnovers, a team that severely suffers from both forced and unforced errors. It's hard to win with these kinds of issues, and it's even harder to win against a team like UCF that excels at causing chaos, ranking 91st in defensive steal percentage and 94th in turnovers in general.
When playing in the other direction, the Buffaloes are much better, ranking 56th in defensive efficiency, but they've had trouble against better teams. Stronger opponents have lit up Colorado's defense in multiple instances, namely, Iowa State dropped 99 points in Maui before Arizona State put up 81 in its most recent game. UCF doesn't have an impressive offensive efficiency rating, ranking 92nd, but it still managed to outscore Texas A&M in its 64-61 victory over the Aggies, an opponent with the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation. More recently, the Knights scored 87 points in their win at Texas Tech, an opponent with a defensive rating comparable to Colorado.
Given Colorado's offensive struggles, and UCF's ability to play well against good teams, I like the home team's odds of successfully defending homecourt. I'm backing the Knights in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UCF -5.5
Texas A&M 
at Oklahoma 
The Aggies have assembled one of the most impressive resumes up to this point in the season. They have won 12 of 14 games, collecting wins over Ohio State, Creighton, Texas Tech, Purdue, and Texas. Their only two losses came at UCF in the season opener and against Oregon in the first game of the Players Era Festival, both respectable teams, so there's not much shame in those outcomes.
The Sooners, on the other hand, pitched a perfect record through the non-conference season, 13-0. The winning streak was nice, but they played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation, ranking 331st in difficulty, per KenPom. Based on this lack of competition, and a few warning signs I noticed ahead of its conference opener, I picked against Oklahoma in my article when it traveled to Alabama last Saturday. Sure enough, Alabama coasted to an easy victory, 107-79. Oklahoma is undoubtedly a decent team, but its underlying numbers suggest regression is on the way -- and fast. KenPom projects Oklahoma will lose nine of its remaining 17 conference games, starting with Wednesday.
The Sooners' biggest liability is by far their defense. They rank 84th in defensive efficiency, which isn't awful, but that's the good news. The alarming news is that Oklahoma is dreadful guarding in the paint, allowing opponents to make almost 55 percent of two-point attempts, ranked 288th in the nation. This is a delightful note for Texas A&M, which typically struggles with shooting despite ranking 39th in offensive efficiency. Perhaps an even bigger issue for Oklahoma is its inability to secure defensive boards, ranking 304th in defensive rebounding percentage. This is a terrible quality against any team, but it's the last thing you want in this matchup. The Aggies posted the highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams last season, and they once again lead the nation in offensive rebounding.
Oklahoma is much better at the other end of the court, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency, but unfortunately for the home team, so is Texas A&M, ranking sixth in defensive efficiency. The Sooners have outstanding shooting numbers, but this shouldn't be surprising considering it played most of its games against weaker competition. The one area where Oklahoma falls below average is offensive rebounding, ranking 198th. Texas A&M has the edge in this category, ranking 123rd, so the Sooners aren't likely to see many second-chance opportunities.
Overall, the Aggies are substantially better on defense, and they appear perfectly built to take advantage of Oklahoma's weaknesses, namely its lack of interior defense. For these reasons, I'm going with the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M +1.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Mississippi +3.5
- UCF -5.5
- Texas A&M +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
