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- Top 3 pointer scorer
- Top total points scorer
- Most assists made
- Most free throws made
- Most rebounds made
- Most fouls made
- Most steals made
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PICK5 STRATEGY, FRIDAY, DEC 20
While the Football Pick8 offering from RankingBall is enjoyable, I was really looking forward to seeing the basketball version. For starters, you only have to get five categories. Secondly, your slates greatly vary in size, so you automatically have a better shot at the money when the slate is slim.
One major disadvantage is the lack of correlating information on players, which is something that I felt was lacking in the Pick8 as well. My recommendation to fix this problem is to fire up the DFS slate on one of the major sites, so you get an idea of various injury situations and positions that you can potentially exploit. You don't want to get too cute with a pivot off of an elite player, however. You want to use this tactic as a method of exclusion, not replacement. More often than not, your pivot off an injured player won't produce as well as an already-established target, unless there's significant statistical evidence that suggests otherwise.
We have a ten-game slate Friday, so there are a lot of statistical variables to examine. I find that in addition to the DFS site referral, a look at the Vegas Odds is helpful, so let's take a look at that information before we dive in.
IND (-4.5) vs. SAC O/U: 207.5
MEM (-1.5) @ CLE O/U: 222.5
BOS(-9) vs DET O/U: 219.5
TOR (-6.5) vs. WAS O/U: 230
PHI (-8) vs DAL O/U: 213
MIA (-9.5) vs. NY O/U: 216.5
OKC (-4) vs. PHO O/U: 221.5
DEN (-10) vs MIN O/U: 217
POR (-4) vs. ORL O/U: 217
NO (-1.5) @ GS O/U: 223.5
These figures are not a be-all, end-all litmus test, but it's a useful guide to target games that could have the most production and predictability. A higher Over/Under indicates more production, and a narrow spread implies increased usage for the starting five. Our categories go deeper than scoring potential, however. We are at a point in the season where a lot of teams have already faced each other so that historical information is extremely relevant. Also, certain positions will find themselves with a significant statistical advantage due to an injury or a size-talent mismatch. An example: Player A is on a string of double-doubles, and they're playing a team without their elite center. From a scoring AND rebounding perspective, it's a great spot for Player A.
For each category, I'm going to give you two potential targets to choose from.
TOTAL POINTS
Something to keep in mind for this category is that we are looking for POINT TOTALS ONLY, not fantasy points. Multi-category contributors put up a lot of fantasy points, but they aren't all necessarily high scorers. You need to take that into account as you look at the selections.
Brandon Ingram, NO @ GS
This situation sets up well for Ingram, as the game's high O/U and narrow spread guarantees he'll be on the court for a full complement of minutes. He put up 27 against the Warriors in their last meeting and is coming off a 34-point night against the Timberwolves.
Kemba Walker, BOS vs. DET
Walker has been a veritable scoring machine over the past few games, and he'll take on a Detroit squad that has one of the worst scoring defenses in the league (28th).
3 POINTERS
Kemba Walker, BOS vs. DET
I definitely think a sweep is possible tonight against Detroit's weak perimeter defense. Kemba drilled five threes in his last matchup and has connected on 22 threes over his past four games.
Buddy Hield, SAC @ IND
I'm not crazy about the metrics in this game and Indy's defense is tough against shooting guards, but most of Hield's scoring production comes from long range. He's hit five or more three-pointers in four of the past six games.
REBOUNDS
Andre Drummond, DET @ BOS
Drummond is almost always good for a solid rebounding number, and the Celtics frontcourt is struggling a bit recently. The loss of Al Horford to Philly has had a noticeable impact. Expect Drummond to take advantage.
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. DAL
He will have to contend with Kristaps Porzingis, but Embiid is as safe as they come this category. He's averaging 12.6 rebounds per game and is coming off a 19-rebound performance against the Heat.
ASSISTS
Ricky Rubio, PHO @ OKC
Whenever Rubio is on the slate, you have to consider him in the assists category. He has rattled off eight, 14 and 13 assists over the past three games. Deandre Ayton (ankle) is out, but the Suns have learned to function without him, so I don't think Rubio's numbers will be affected.
Ben Simmons, PHI vs, DAL
Without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks are a bit of a jumble and things should open up for Simmons as he tries to collect dimes by dishing to Tobias Harris and Embiid. The Simmons-Embiid stack will be popular in Pick5 whenever Philly is playing.
TEAM FOULS
This category is the biggest crapshoot, but you can look at key players and see how capable they are at drawing fouls. It's grasping at straws, but you can still use it as a metric. Nikola Jokic is a guy that can play pretend under the basket, and with a lack of weapons, the Warriors may commit more than their share of fouls. I also think the 76'ers will get fouled a lot by the Mavericks.
I hope you all enjoy this exciting format, and good luck!
