The NBA regular season ends Sunday and the Play-In Tournament is slated to tip off Tuesday night. In the play-in NBA betting event, eight teams seeded seventh through 10th in each conference hope to start a prolonged postseason push.
So RotoWire.com wanted to see how NBA teams fare after they survive the play-in phase to make the NBA playoffs. Check out the history in our interactive graphic below:
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The NBA does not consider it a playoff appearance unless a team is in the 16-team field for the best-of-seven first round. The play-in games, under their current format, have been around since 2021, leading to a few long-term postseason success stories during that stretch.
How Do NBA Play-In Teams Fare in Postseason?
The odds of making it out of the first round of the postseason after starting in the NBA's Play-In Tournament are slim – only 15% of play-in teams won their first-round series. That would translate to odds of about +565 at leading sportsbook apps.
But that's not to say that being in the event is a kiss of death for postseason success.
Three Play-In Teams That Went Further
Three of the 20 Play-In teams since 2022 have advanced out of the first round. That includes last year's Golden State Warriors, who knocked off the Houston Rockets in seven games before falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves in five during the Western Conference semifinals.
The 2023 Play-In Tournament crew had two examples of teams that found their best form at the right time. The West's No. 7 seed, the Los Angeles Lakers, knocked off the Memphis Grizzlies and the Warriors before falling to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference final.
The East had a Play-in team make an even better surge that year. In the East, the eighth-seeded Miami Heat ousted the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics in their run all the way to the NBA Finals. There, they fell to the Denver Nuggets in a five-game series. Entering Round 1, BetMGM Sportsbook had the Heat at +6000 odds to win the East.
Of the 17 teams that lost in the first round after advancing through the Play-In Tournament since 2021, none extended their lone postseason series to seven games. Five of those teams lost in six games, eight in five games and three were swept in four.
Eastern Conference Play-In Picture
Heading into Friday, we know which 10 teams will either be in the full field or Play-In Tournament in each conference, though the East's order is still in flux as the regular season wraps up.
The Atlanta Hawks (45-35 after Thursday) hold the sixth and final automatic playoff spot in the East – one game ahead of the Orlando Magic (44-36) and two ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets (both 43-37) – with two games to play. At bet365 Sportsbook, the Magic (-270 odds) and the Sixers (-240) are favored to survive the play-in and reach the 16-team playoffs.
Should the East stay in its current pecking order, Orlando would be the No. 7 seed, facing eighth seed Philadelphia in a Play-In, with the winner advancing to face the Boston Celtics. The ninth-seeded Hornets would square off against No. 10 Miami (41-39). The Hornets have gone 21 years without winning a playoff series, tied with the Sacramento Kings for the longest active streak.
The winner of the Charlotte-Miami clash would then play the loser of the Orlando-Philly showdown to determine the East's eighth and final playoff seed. That team would face a first-round series against the Detroit Pistons, with an eye toward becoming the first eight seed to knock off a top team since the Heat in 2023.
Western Conference Play-In Picture
Out West, the four Play-In Tournament teams are settled, though the seeding could still change in the final two games. For now, the Phoenix Suns (44-36) are slated to play the Los Angeles Clippers in the 7/8 clash on Tuesday night. The Portland Trail Blazers and Warriors would duke it out in the 9/10 showdown. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Suns (-650 odds) and Clippers (-145) are favored to emerge out of the play-in round.
Phoenix is locked into the seventh spot and the Warriors (37-43) will be 10th, but the Clippers (41-39) and Trail Blazers (40-40) could flip flop this weekend.
Whichever team wins the 7/8 showdown gets the right to try stopping Victor Wembanyama and the No. 2 seeded San Antonio Spurs in the first round. The No. 8 seed plays the defending champion and league-best Oklahoma City Thunder (64-16), who have clinched homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs.
NBA Playoff Odds for Play-In Candidates
When it comes to Play-In Tournament team futures, DraftKings Sportsbook has +105 odds (or a 48.8% implied probability) that any team reaches the second round as a prop bet. The site has +450 odds on a Play-In team reaching the Conference Finals, +1100 odds of making the NBA Finals and +5000 odds of winning the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2026.
Based on recent history, it seems wise to wager that none of the No. 7 or No. 8 teams will advance to the second round. That 15% success rate in the first round over the past five years speaks to the long odds that lower seeded teams face in the NBA's best-of-seven gauntlet.
