The All-Star break creeps ever closer, and we'll kick the week off with a slim four-game slate as we enter the final full week before festivities begin in Los Angeles. Using RotoWire's projections, I'll dig up our favorite DFS plays from a shallow player pool. I recommend a cash-game approach on slates of this type, as you have to be nearly perfect to cash in a GPP with free players to choose from. We also need to keep our ear to the ground when lineups lock, as potential absences for the Timberwolves and Clippers will impact our approach.
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NBA Games Today
For the latest spreads and over-unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Monday. Keep in mind that this is not a complete list. Use your best judgment when evaluating ongoing injury scenarios elsewhere on the slate.
HOU Kevin Durant (ankle) - OUT
Durant's absence will mean increased usage for Josh Okogie ($4,200) and a possible explosive night from Amen Thompson ($8,800).
MIN Anthony Edwards (back) - QUESTIONABLE
MIN Julius Randle (thumb) - QUESTIONABLE
I'll be all over Jaden McDaniels ($6,300) and Naz Reid ($6,700) if these tags hold.
MEM Jaren Jackson (quad) - QUESTIONABLE
MEM Ja Morant (elbow) - OUT
MEM Santi Aldama (knee) - OUT
Jackson joins a long list of Memphis injuries. I expect Jock Landale ($5,600) and GG Jackson ($4,500) to benefit if Jackson is out. Elsewhere, Ty Jerome ($4,400) has wasted no time getting back into game form, and he should play a significant role with Morant out until after the All-Star break.
PHI Paul George (suspension) - OUT
George is out for 25 games, so it's time to load up on Kelly Oubre ($5,700) and give him the keys. Dominick Barlow ($3,900) will also benefit.
LAC James Harden (personal) - QUESTIONABLE
Harden's return is unclear, and it's best to just wait on the Clippers. I want to use Harden in the min-revenge setting, so I'll hold off until things crystallize.
Elite Players
We have two players at the top of this shallow player pool with salaries of $10k or more, and they're on the same team. Tyrese Maxey ($10,400) and Joel Embiid ($10,300) are both at reasonable salaries just above the 10k threshold. Embiid is probable and had an excellent game over the weekend, and you can always count on Maxey to produce. The Clippers are on a hot streak, but I'd take the safer play and go with Maxey. Embiid is also viable due to the limited number of available centers.
The $9k range is understandably slim, and Anthony Edwards' potential absence limits things further. Harden was out Sunday for personal reasons, and we already mentioned a desire to use him if he's available. Alperen Sengun ($9,700) and his dual eligibility are also worth a look with Kevin Durant sidelined. We have eight players to choose from at the $8k level, and along with the aforementioned Amen Thompson, I'm targeting Zion Williamson ($8,000) and Pascal Siakam ($8,700).
Expected Chalk and Value Plays
Brandon Miller, CHA ($7,800) vs. NOP
Although LaMelo Ball ($7,900) is at an excellent price point, Miller's floor has proven to be a bit steadier. Both Ball and Miller were out when the Hornets faxed the Pelicans back in November, and I think both players are viable as they try to exact revenge at home. I wouldn't stack the duo, but try to involve one of them.
VJ Edgecombe, PHI ($6,800) @ LAC
While Edgecombe isn't directly correlated with George, the high-flying rookie will likely see his role increase. The team played without George earlier in the season, and it was Edgecombe's first chance to showcase his ROY-worthy skills in an enhanced role.
Ivica Zubac, LAC ($6,500) vs. PHI
It's been quite some time since Embiid and Zubac have tangled, and there are no recorded instances this year or last year. Zubac managed a 14/13 double-double without Embiid on the court earlier in the season, and Zubac's reasonable salary sets up as a cost-saving alternative to Embiid, who can sometimes show fatigue after a big game. He's carried a heavy load for three straight games, and he could struggle against an unfamiliar opponent.
Tari Eason, HOU ($6,300) @ IND
I'll take a chance on Eason if he's healthy enough to play. Choosing between Eason and Jabari Smith ($6,200) is usually a crapshoot, but Eason's numbers haven't disappointed in limited action over the past two weeks. It's also tough to determine who gets the bulk of Durant's workload, but Eason figures to be one of the beneficiaries.
Cedric Coward, MEM ($5,800) vs. MIN
Coward has proven to be a relevant part of the ROY race thanks to strady production with the Grizzlies. We will likely see increased production while Memphis suffers through injuries, although Jerome's return will impact Coward's chances in the backcourt. He's equally effective on the wing, and some potential Minnesota absences may play to Coward's advantage.
Aaron Nesmith, IND ($5,500) vs. HOU
I cringe at the thought of endorsing more than one Indiana prospect, but I will settle on Nesmith and Siakam. His salary is quite good relative to his production, and the Pacers could be aided slightly by Durant's absence. I don't expect an upset win or anything close, but I'd be happy with a 30-FDFP effort from Nesmith, who's shown an ability to exceed that number over the past month.
Also consider: Jaylen Wells, MEM ($4,200) vs. MIN
