This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
I hope you were reading this column back at the beginning of the season. If you were, you could have got a couple of excellent options including:
- Myles Turner Defensive Player of the Year +4000 (now +250 on DraftKings)
- LaMelo Ball Rookie of the Year +480 (now -140 on FanDuel)
- Bradley Beal average over 26.5 points -110 (BetMGM doesn't offer this now but if they did I have to imagine it'd be -1000)
If not for a 10-game COVID-19-related absence for Michael Porter I strongly believe the forward would also be contending of the Most Improved Player of the Year award as well, so most of our early-season futures touts have been impressive.
Luka Doncic to win MVP (+650 on FanDuel)
Doncic was one of the odds-on favorites to begin the year, but the Mavs' struggles to start the season have finally pushed the dynamic point guard to a point where I'm most interested in grabbing him.
At the moment, LeBron James has emerged as the new frontrunner for the award, and probably rightfully so given likely voter bias regarding his performance relative to his age, and the Lakers overall team success despite a grueling championship run just a few months prior. But if the Mavs were to say, starting competing for a top-five seed in the West, I think Doncic would rise closer to the top given his production.
I mean, the guy is averaging close to a triple-double on the season and that's with shooting a ghastly 28.5 percent from beyond the arc through 17 games. If you look ahead at the Mavs schedule, I think it's entirely possible, and probably likely, Dallas rattles off a nice win streak in the month of February to the point where they will be a pretty obvious playoff contender. How the team manages the trade deadline could inadvertently boost Doncic's odds further considering the only thing hurting his resume at the moment is overall team success. I'm not saying I would buy at this figure necessarily, but I do think this is the best odds we'll see for a guy that almost certainly will finish among the top three in MVP votes at the end of the year.
Grizzlies to make playoffs (+146 on FanDuel)
I don't really know how the NBA will handle the imbalance of postponed games which likely will affect this bet more than we might assume. The Grizzlies have played just 13 games this season -- the fewest across the entire league. Perhaps the NBA makes a daunting gauntlet for Memphis towards the second half of the season and the sheer amount of back-to-backs runs the Griz into the ground but considering just about every team has been affected by a postponed game or COVID-19 outbreak at some point through the first two months, I'm sort of leaning towards the idea these games never get made up and instead the standings rely on win percentage.
If that's the case, I feel reasonably comfortable the Grizzlies will slip in. If you look at the West teams on the outside looking in, the Mavs were the only team many were projecting into the playoffs from the onset. Some thought the Rockets and Pelicans could have contended for a postseason berth this season, but with the former trading away their main piece and the latter actively looking to tear away many of the spare parts, I don't think either make a serious run at one of the last spots.
The Warriors complicate things as well and could be dangerous in a play-in setting, but regardless, the Grizzlies sure seem to be situated nicely in the event that not all postponed games are played. Especially for plus money, this feels like a perfect gamble for a future bet with the season now a month underway.
76ers to win Atlantic Division (+260 on FanDuel)
This wasn't meant to be a FanDuel-specific article, but when the value all falls on one sportsbook, you have to target it.
Look, the Nets probably are the best team in the East. But the 76ers have already ridden the rocky waters of a major COVID-related blip and still hold a slim lead over the division. Of course, that type of situation can theoretically happen again to the 76ers, but if the roles were reversed in Brooklyn, it's almost guaranteed the lack of depth would be too much to overcome. The three-headed monster of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving will always keep the Nets competitive, but even if all three remain healthy and continue to play 40 minutes a night, I think the exhausting toll would eventually catch up with them.
Depth matters when it comes to these regular-season bets. Yes, the Nets are the better team, but to suggest the 76ers are in a demonstrably worse position to win the division feels like an overreaction to a number of star names coming together in a season where everyone knows the regular season doesn't matter.
