This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
It's always a tricky endeavor when trying to target different futures bets, especially regarding a NBA season that hasn't even officially announced its second-half schedule as part of a concerted effort to make sure 2021 is as equally frenetic as 2020. Especially when it comes to identifying different player awards, narrative and talent unilaterally drive the votes. Below is a list of bets that I think could strike a chord with either denominator.
LaMelo Ball Rookie of the Year (+480 on FanDuel)
I feel less confident about this take after watching Wednesday's contest where he played just 16 minutes, but there's an undeniable amount of interest from the general public regarding the youngest of the Ball siblings and I think that type of organic hype can help drive a Rookie of the Year narrative.
It's the same type of reasoning that made Zion Williamson third among Rookie of the Year votes last year despite playing 24 games and I think it's an even truer statement in a year such as this where there aren't any obvious "star" rookies" to contend with the planetary orbit Ball commands from the media.
Getting this award would either mean the Hornets completely bottomed out mid-way through the season and simply feed Ball for the award, or they contended for a playoff spot likely on the heels of a resurgent campaign from Gordon Hayward and rise of Terry Rozier/PJ Washington. The latter scenario could easily be credited to Ball as well depending on the minutes he plays. Consider this a bet on the cynical side of sports media.
Most losses - Pistons (+375 BetMGM)
This already rose from +400 to start the season and it's hard to really disagree after watching Wednesday's loss to the Timberwolves.
There are some legitimately bad teams in the NBA at the moment, particularly the Thunder who might be reinventing the term "war chest", but even they have a decent combination of scrappy veterans and intriguing players who will be force-fed minutes which might allow Oklahoma to stumble into a win or two.
The Pistons are one Blake Griffin injury/trade away from being a roster truly bereft of talent. The depth chart looks more like the 2020 version of the scene in Major League where Cleveland Indians owner Rachel Phelps hands out the list of spring training invites. I do get a little worried that a coach like Dwayne Casey will coax whatever bit of promise might be possible out of this rotation, but at the end of the day, this is still one of, if not the least talented roster in the NBA. There are worse things to bet on when you're considering futures.
Kevin Durant 2021 MVP (+1200 MVP DraftKings)
I'm going back to the narrative well on this one, but we know the voters love a good story. Perhaps LeBron James' postseason success coupled with Giannis Antetokounmpo's back-to-back MVP run will open the door for someone else to slide in, particularly if that someone is able to lead his team to one of the best records in the NBA (the Nets have the fourth-best odds to record the most regular-season wins).
There's legitimate concern the Nets could ease Durant back into the fold giving him fewer minutes in the same way the Clippers operate with Kawhi Leonard, but I still like the idea of voters catching onto the reclamation story of Durant coupled with the Nets' success. You could hedge it with the early frontrunner, Luka Doncic, under the same premise, but even then you're hoping the voters become enamored with the gory stats the All-NBA guard will put up considering the Nets likely will win more games, and possibly by a considerable margin.
Michael Porter Most Improved Player (+1200 FanDuel)
I'm enamored with the potential of Porter. The small forward exploded during a brief period in the bubble, only for an aversion to defense forcing him out of the rotation late in the Nuggets' playoff run with multiple guys returning from injury. It's hard to really gauge the perception of Porter on the outside, as the 22-year-old's stats weren't very impressive over the totality of his rookie season, but he shined to near supernova levels offensively in his brief foray in the starting lineup last season.
Christian Wood, the odds-on favorite for the award, doesn't have nearly the same type of star-stamping stretch as Porter, but he certainly has the talent to pull it off and should be situated in a fantastic situation in Houston. The operative is "should" as "Houston, we have liftoff" could mean a completely different phrase by the end of 2021 depending on how the James Harden situation plays out.
I'm betting on talent when it comes to Porter and hoping the situation figures itself out. If he gets the type of minutes we saw in Wednesday's loss to the Kings (24 points in 30 minutes) it'll be hard to really ignore his numbers, particularly with the Nuggets almost guaranteed to have a better season than the Rockets.
