This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We're back to the big slate Wednesday with a 10-game offering that kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET. There are several injury situations to monitor, so you will need your late-swap skills as tip-off nears.
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds are best available USA odds and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC
POR @ DET (+7) O/U: 221.5
MIA @ IND (+2) O/U: 217
DAL @ BOS (+1.5) O/U: 225
HOU @ BKN (-13.5) O/U: 232
UTA @ MEM (+6) O/U: 227
TOR @ OKC (+7.5) O/U: 222
NYK @ MIN (+4) O/U: 219
SAC @ SAS (-2.5) O/U: 230
MIL @ LAL (+8.5) O/U: 222
CHI @ PHO (-6) O/U: 222.5
INJURIES
DET Dennis Smith (back) - OUT
DET Wayne Ellington (calf) - DOUBTFUL
Cory Joseph ($4,500) and Saben Lee ($5,000) will split minutes at the point, but that doesn't make them a fade. They both scored in the mid-30 FP range against the Raptors. Hamidou Diallo ($5,800) is a bit expensive, but he is a candidate for a start in the backcourt.
MIA Kendrick Nunn (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
With Goran Dragic ($4,800) healthy, he would be the best placeholder for Nunn and might be a safe play overall.
IND Doug McDermott (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Jeremy Lamb (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
I still like Justin Holiday ($3,800) in a McDermott absence. I don't see much of a change here otherwise.
BOS Jaylen Brown (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
If Brown is out, give a little bit more love to Jayson Tatum ($9,000).
HOU Christian Wood (illness) - PROBABLE
HOU John Wall (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Houston is a messy spot where a lot of value could open up. If Wood can't make it, Kelly Olynyk ($5,500) has established himself as a reliable pivot with his new team. Kevin Porter ($5,500) will be a sound play with or without Wall, but he'll be more valuable if Wall takes a seat. D.J. Augustin ($4,000) would also get run at point guard in the event of a Wall absence.
UTA Donovan Mitchell (personal) - OUT
It's certainly a decent spot for Mike Conley ($6,000) to take over things in the backcourt, and of course, Jordan Clarkson ($5,000) has to be considered whenever a guard is absent.
MEM Grayson Allen (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
I'm not a huge fan of this team against Utah tonight, but De'Anthony Melton ($4,100) is a guy who deserves more run with the Grizzlies anyway, and he proved himself in a spot start on Monday. His performance may have earned him extra playing time, even if Allen plays.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (foot) - OUT
OKC Luguentz Dort (concussion) -OUT
OKC Darius Bazley ( shoulder) - OUT
It's still a very messy spot in OKC. I would consider Ty Jerome ($4,100) as an option moving up the depth chart, as he's playing a bit better than Theo Maledon at the moment. Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,300) and Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,700) should also see decent upticks tonight.
CHI Zach LaVine (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
CHI Coby White (back) - QUESTIONABLE
One has to wonder how long LaVine can handle playing on his ankle, which apparently is a lot more serious than just a tweak. White would probably get a bit more run if LaVine were out, but the bigger beneficiary could be Patrick Williams ($4,100).
ELITE PLAYERS
We have five players at $10k and above tonight, and the new addition to the club is De'Aaron Fox ($10,000). His recent output is hard to refute, but many people will get scared of this elevated price tag since he needs 50 fantasy points to meet value. They are in a split against the Spurs, and he came very close to 50 on Monday. I think he could go higher, but he should be limited to tournaments in hopes of big upside. My exposure won't be too strong here.
Revenge game, anyone? James Harden ($11,500) is in the juiciest one of the year versus Houston, and if you buy into that narrative, then he's arguably your best spend-up option tonight. There is some blowout risk here, and Kyrie Irving ($9,600) would have a similar cause to post a big number, but both players have a solid floor that won't hurt you too badly if they were to underperform in a cash lineup. I don't think Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800) merits a lot of exposure in a slow-paced game against the Knicks, but Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) against the Lakers and Luka Doncic ($10,500) are two elites that are definitely worth the cash. I like Giannis against the compromised Lakers as a close second to Harden despite some disappointing numbers by the Greek Freak's standards.
In the $9k range, I like Julius Randle ($9,300) for a couple of reasons. Randle's numbers with Mitchell Robinson in the lineup were measurably lower than when he played alongside Nerlens Noel, and with Robinson out indefinitely, Randle's numbers will benefit. Secondly, his 25/14 double-double against them in their last matchup is a decent metric to trust. Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) faces a low game total but could still succeed against Miami. Damian Lillard ($9,100) hasn't beaten 5x value in two weeks, so I don't see myself spending up for him tonight.
EXPECTED CHALK
Rudy Gobert, UTA ($8,200) @ MEM
Gobert still comes at an almost comical price. He'll face a Memphis team that he's faced twice already over the past week. He posted 25/9 and 16/4 in those matchups, so a floor of 40 FP is a safe bet. If you're looking for steady production in a cash lineup, Gobert fits the bill. I have no problem targeting Richaun Holmes' ($8,000) center upside for a little bit less. These two centers are pretty much interchangeable tonight.
Dejounte Murray, SA ($7,600) vs. SAC
Murray put up 42 FP against the Kings Monday, which was good for 5.5x value. If he can match that total tonight, he'll represent one of the more stable guard values on the slate.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,400) @ OKC
It makes sense to play Toronto's most explosive player in a game they might actually win. He's only averaged a bit above 35 FP since his five-game absence, so all he needs to do is match that total and add a steal or two. The depleted Thunder could also smell a win here, so expect this to be a competitive matchup where both teams will need to push their elites.
Robert Covington, POR ($7,000) @ DET
Although Norman Powell's arrival may bite into Covington's production eventually, it hasn't happened yet. Covington is coming off his best two-game run of the season with fantasy totals of 50 and 46 FP. As long as he keeps his steady minutes at the four, Covington should be safe for another big number against Detroit.
Also consider: Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,600) @ LAL, Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($6,600) @ MIA
VALUE PLAYS
As usual, look for value in the injury section, and keep your ear to the ground for late-breaking news. A slate this size will inevitably have some value open up as news becomes available.
OG Anunoby ($6,600) and Kyle Lowry ($6,300) @ OKC
Toronto's struggles are a big reason why these salaries have sunk. While Anunoby can usually be found within $500 or so of his current number, Lowry's salary is unheard of. Granted, his numbers haven't been the best, but he'll be two games removed from a foot injury and perfectly capable of crushing value if he gets hot. You can't ask for a better spot for the Raptors than the Thunder, so both of these guys merit strong consideration.
Buddy Hield, SAC ($5,800) @ SA
Hield looked great against the Spurs on Monday, and he even added some rebounds to his sharpshooting totals. For Hield, it's all about the three-ball finding the basket, and if Monday was any indication, he appears to be dialed in, going 5-for-9 from long range in the lopsided win.
Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,500) vs. DAL
You have to consider a Celtics starter at this price, and Jaylen Brown's potential absence only further magnifies smart's potential. His past couple of games were nothing special, but he has the upside to scratch the 40 FP in the right scenario.
Andre Drummond, LAL ($5,200) vs. MIL
Feeling lucky? Wanna gamble? Employ this pick in a tournament lineup or two. I'd expect Drummond to be available tonight, and I'd like nothing more than to see a twin-tower approach of Montrezl Harrell and Drummond for at least a few possessions. They've already announced a start for Drummond tonight. How can you resist getting in on the fun? Don't go overboard, but the salary point is too good for a potential double-double contributor.
As usual, on a big slate, I'll finish the article with a few additional budget values:
SF Saddiq Bey, DET ($,4,800) vs. POR
SG Gary Trent, TOR ($4,700) @ OKC
SF Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA ($4,500) @ MEM
Also, I want to focus on values like Svi Mykhailiuk and Patrick Williams that we found in the injury section. Although there's a lot of value earlier in that part of the article, these two targets stand out.
