This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The Thursday slate kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET, but the trade deadline comes right before that, so it's going to be a wild day, folks! Hold on to your hats. Or better yet, leave your hat at home.
SLATE OVERVIEW
POR @ MIA (-4) O/U: 218.5
WAS @ NYK (-3) O/U: 226
LAC @ SAS (+6) O/U: 221.5
PHI @ LAL (+5) O/U: 211
GSW @ SAC (-2,5) O/U: 223
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALICS
Luckily, no trade activity affected our builds last night. Instead, the elite options underperformed across the board, leaving a lot of unsatisfied players. We managed a cash despite the load-up of Luka Doncic with picks like Donovan Mitchell, Moses Brown and Jeff Teague.
You can bet that trades will play a part in tonight's slate, however. To make matters worse, trade outcomes will likely affect the slate's best game, where the Warriors face the Kings. By the time this article is posted, we may already have some breaking news, so it's important to use this column as a primer and pivot accordingly. Here are some spots we should be looking at today:
Spurs - LaMarcus Aldridge
Kings - Barnes, Holmes are the most likely pieces
Warriors - Oubre is the most likely player to move
Trail Blazers - Gary Trent, Rodney Hood traded for Norman Powell
76ers - Tony Bradley involved in three-team deal
We don't have to deal with teams like the Rockets, Raptors or the Pistons, who just put a deal through involving Delon Wright overnight. The slate will still be a little wild, but not as crazy as it could have been with a different set of teams. As we go over the injuries, I'll do my best to identify the most likely trades and provide pivots.
INJURIES
MIA: Goran Dragic (back) -- QUESTIONABLE
Kendrick Nunn ($5,500) had a nice 25-point outing with Dragic out of the lineup. I like him as a pivot over Tyler Herro ($5,200). At the moment, it seems like the Heat will stay quiet at the deadline.
Wizards: I think it's unlikely that we'll see much action here -- outside of Thursday morning's swap of underperforming bench players with the Bulls -- but there were rumblings of a trade involving Bradley Beal earlier in the year. Either way, I'm not a big fan of this team in particular as it's a huge pace-down for the Wizards against the Knicks.
NYK: Derrick Rose (conditioning) - QUESTIONABLE
If Rose plays, the backcourt will revert back to the confusing jumble it's been in previous weeks, and the added return of Elfrid Payton ($5,200) muddles the issue even more. The Knicks are unlikely to make a move, but if they did, it would probably involve parting ways with someone from this crowded backcourt. I would hold off on the Knicks backcourt until we see a starting lineup.
LAC: Serge Ibaka (back) - OUT
LAC: Patrick Beverley (knee) - OUT
Ivica Zubac ($5,600) and Marcus Morris ($5,000) will lead the way inside for the Clippers. The team has frequently mentioned Terance Mann ($3,600) and a desire to get him more involved, making him an interesting budget play. The Clippers are pretty much set, and it would be a surprise to see any movement from them at the deadline.
SAS: LaMarcus Aldridge (likely trade) - OUT
SAS: Lonnie Walker (wrist) - OUT
SAS: Rudy Gay (foot) - WILL PLAY
Anyone besides Aldridge would be pure speculation at this point, but he may be part of a package if the team can find an interested suitor. I think the wildest outcome would be a case where DeMar DeRozan gets shipped. Their starting lineup bears some monitoring at lock, but Jakob Poeltl ($5,400) will continue to handle the center spot in Aldridge's stead. The Spurs were on the receiving end of a blowout Monday, so there will be some recency bias, but Keldon Johnson ($5,500) is a likely candidate to bounce back.
PHI: Joel Embiid (knee) - OUT
PHI: Seth Curry (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
PHI: Danny Green (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
Dwight Howard ($5,400) remains the most sensible pivot for Embiid, especially with Tony Bradley out of the picture. A Curry return would throw a wrench into any planned backcourt pivots, but Shake Milton ($5,400) would be fine if Curry misses.
Lakers: Obviously, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are out. From there, things will almost certainly get interesting. The Lakers have been mentioned in several trade talks, but their options are fairly limited. Simply put, we have to wait and see on the Lakers tonight. Kyle Kuzma ($7,000) is still the most reliable option in this scenario, along with Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,500), but some additional value will open up if a trade occurs.
Warriors/Kings: For starters, you still have to run with Jordan Poole ($6,200) in Stephen Curry's absence, despite an underwhelming game against the Sixers. The next question involves Kelly Oubre. If the Warriors don't trade him, they'll need to either sign him for an extension or let him loose to explore his worth in the offseason. An extension seems unlikely, so if the team takes a phone call that results in an attractive package for Oubre, they will probably take it. I think Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,300) is a good play already, but he's even more attractive if Oubre ends up leaving the team.
For the Kings, things are definitely up in the air. We'll discuss one solid guarantee to stay on the team a bit later, but multiple guys could be headed out before the end of the day. Once again, we have to wait and see, but you have to think Hassan Whiteside ($4,300) would be in line for big minutes if Richaun Holmes gets traded, and DaQuan Jeffries ($3,500) would be useful if Harrison Barnes or Buddy Hield made an exit. If there's no movement at all, this game will be one of the highest-paced affairs, and I would put guys like Barnes and Holmes back into play. Cory Joseph was already traded to Detroit, so Tyrese Haliburton ($5,700) will also have the inside track for additional minutes.
ELITE PLAYERS
We only have two guys above 10k on today's slate. Julius Randle ($10,200) appears to be a much better call at this price point than Russell Westbrook ($11,100). The Wizards will see a hit to their total possessions with the Knicks, and it makes sense to hold off on Westbrook and Bradley Beal ($9,200). Randle is a dominant presence for the Knicks and will have no trouble penetrating Washington's weak interior, so despite the high salary, he's a very reasonable call.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,700), Jimmy Butler ($9,500) and Damian Lillard ($9,400) dominate the 9k range. These guys are victims of subpar matchups. Both of these games are pace-down affairs, and if we look at game history, Leonard is the only one with metrics. He went for well over 50 FP over two games against his former team, so the numbers tell us that he is the smartest play of the trio. It's fine to have some of Butler and Lillard in MME builds, but they aren't single-entry options today.
EXPECTED CHALK
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($8,900) vs. GSW
Fox hasn't been very dependable this season, but the game checks all the boxes for him: a fast pace, a key backcourt injury for the opponent, and potential added pressure from a short-handed lineup due to trade activity. The upshot is that he's coming off two consecutive games with 30 or more points, so the arrow is definitely trending in the right direction.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($8,800) @ LAL
The Sixers are set to have their way with the Lakers tonight, and Harris should continue to provide much-needed interior support while Joel Embiig is out. Among all the teams available tonight, Philly is my favorite team to stack, as I also really like Ben Simmons ($8,200) here as well. This one-two punch is an excellent way to go, especially in cash lineups.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,000) vs. POR
Every player is affected by pace, but the quality of the matchup can often neutralize that factor. That's why I like Bam here. He's a consistent favorite on FanDuel due to his PF designation, so we get center-quality production without sacrificing the sole center slot. We have no previous metrics for these two teams this season, but Portland's defense will struggle to contain an interior attack.
Dejounte Murray, SAS ($6,700) @ LAC
Murray certainly isn't going anywhere, and he'll be leading the charge for whatever lineup shows up tonight. He's averaging just over 30 FP per game over his past five games, so ideally, we'd need a bit more for him to meet 5x value. His two-game FP average against the Clippers comes very close to a value-beating number.
VALUE PLAYS
Mitchell Robinson, NYK ($6,000) @ WAS
Robinson will no longer be a sneaky contrarian secret after a superlative return to action. Robinson's biggest issue has always been a propensity to get in foul trouble, but if he's favoring that hand injury, perhaps he won't play as aggressively on defense and fouls won't be an issue. Thus matchup against the Wizards is a boon for any center, and although Randle will curb Robinson's impact, this a spit where you can go over the field and still be unique.
Markieff Morris, LAL ($4,700) @ PHI
In the off chance, Harrell gets shipped out today, I will almost certainly pivot to Morris, who should be in line for a decent game in the paint without Marc Gasol available. He stands to be a good target regardless for the short-handed Lakers, who will need a big body to hold off Simmons and Tobias Harris.
James Wiseman, GSW ($4,200) @ SAC
Wiseman is back in the starting lineup, and although ROY honors may be out of reach, he'll still be a force to be reckoned with down the stretch. He could find himself in an exponentially better situation later in the day, especially if Harrison Barnes and/or Richaun Holmes are dealt out of town.
