This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
After a brief hiatus to break down the biggest game of the year, we're back and ready to maneuver Wednesday's nine-game slate. With NFL season officially "over", expect to see a few more of these types of articles ramping up in the coming weeks from myself and my colleagues.
Points Props
I think we might be getting to the point of the year where taking the under, just generally, seems to make sense. Case in point, Serge Ibaka scoring under 13.5 points (-134). Ivica Zubac has been getting more involved late averaging 12.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 25.0 minutes in each of the last three games which have come at the direct expense of Ibaka (9.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 22.7 minutes in the same timeframe). The Wolves are one of the worst teams against opposing centers so there's a risk one of the two go off, but I'm betting even a best-case scenario for Ibaka puts the o/u marginally in play.
I mentioned this in the Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday picks, but I'm definitely interested in targeting Terry Rozier under 17.5 points (-118). Gordon Hayward sure looks like he's primed for a major game that would cut into Rozier's possible production further, but the guard has also been less of an offensive threat since returning from his ankle injury. I'm not sure there's a ton of locks in this slate, but I definitely like the odds relative to the likelihood of Rozier scoring 18+.
All the hype recently has been centered on LaMelo Ball, rightfully, but taking the over regarding Lonzo Ball's 21.5 points+rebounds+assists (PRA) at -110 is something I'm really intrigued in. The Bulls are a better defensive team than last year, or at least they play at a much slower pace, but they still allow top-10 figures in points, rebounds, and assists to point guards. Ball is pretty much a jack-of-all-trades in that regard so the over feels way too low given Ball's scoring prowess as of late.
Rebounds/Assists Props
Death, taxes, and taking Clint Capela for a double-double at -286 versus the Mavs, against whom the center just registered a 10-point, 13-rebound double-double six nights ago. I really don't understand why DraftKings continues to be so loose with Capela's double-double figures, but I'm glad to target it from a parlay perspective every time. Ironically I think Domantas Sabonis has a better chance of not hitting a double-double (-386) against the Nets, but both sure seem likely to happen. Just parlaying the two would lock in -139 odds.
Sticking in the Mavs/Hawks game, I'm shocked you can get Kristaps Porzingis getting a double-double at +155 odds. It's not a lock by any means, but he's hit that number in four of the last five games, including a 24-point, 11-rebound double-double last week against Atlanta. The Hawks don't give up a lot of production to centers though, but this would be one I'd parlay at -160, so something in the plus range just feels like stealing.
I'm always conflicted about targeting moderate PRA numbers for star players, but I think I'm buying Jamal Murray's under 28.5 PRA figure (-118). The Cavaliers are surprisingly good against opposing point guards allowing the fifth-fewest points to the position, and Murray hasn't really been involved from a rebound/assist perspective. The 23-year-old has hit that mark just once in the last six games too, further reinforcing my confidence in the under.
It's probably not quite as guaranteed as the odds suggest, but I'll probably be looking to parlay the -134 odds of Zion Williamson registering under 7.5 rebounds. The Bulls allow the third-fewest rebounds to power forwards, but more importantly, Steven Adams healthy tends to free up Zion to be a more featured scoring threat. The 2019 No. 1 overall pick has missed this over in each of the last three games, too, so all signs point to the under.
Best Bets
- Lonzo Ball over 21.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)
- Clint Capela/Domantas Sabonis both get double-doubles (-139)
- Jamal Murray under 28.5 points/rebounds/assists (-118)
