This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got one of those huge 11-game slates tonight, so it's the best possible time to fire up some GPPs, especially the single-entry selections, as we try to strike it rich with the cornucopia of targets available to us.
SLATE OVERVIEW
BOS (-1.5) @ IND, O/U: 209.5
HOU (-11.5) @ CLE, O/U: 228.5
LAC (-2.5) @ TOR, O/U: 221.5
LAL (-7.5) @ ORL, O/U: 213
BKN (-9.5) vs.CHA, O/U: 217
UTA (-1) @ MIN, O/U: 222.5
CHI (-5.5) vs. ATL, O/U: 222
PHO (-6.5) vs. MEM, O/U: 231
MIL (-13) vs. NO, O/U: 235.5
SAC (-1.5) vs. OKC, O/U: 209
GS (-5) vs. NY, O/U: 210
Right away we see the two worst teams in the league in what should be a messy face-off that I'll largely avoid. While lineup-destroyer David Fizdale is no longer with the team, we've already seen in two short games how wide the usage variance is for the Knicks. While the Pelicans/Bucks game looks tantalizing, I may end up fading the true elites there and instead fish for value, and I like the narrow spread and competitive pace of the LAC/TOR matchup.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
The slate is remarkably clean, aside from long-standing injury spots that we're already aware of.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (quad) OUT
Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe should take on expanded roles. Ersan Ilyasova is a strong candidate to see increased minutes.
Fred VanVleet (knee) QUESTIONABLE
VanVleet missed Monday's game and it's still too early to tell if he'll miss his second-straight contest. A glance at Toronto's box score reveals Norman Powell ($5,200) as the biggest beneficiary in VanVleet's absence.
Marcus Smart (eye) QUESTIONABLE
We'll see what happens here, but I expect Smart to make it onto the court. An eye infection is a tricky thing, though. The issue could adversely affect his shot, and I'd be more inclined to slide over to Jaylen Brown ($6,700) regardless of Smart's status.
Rajon Rondo (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Alex Caruso ($3,800) should carry the load and he still comes at an excellent price.
ELITE PLAYERS
We have five chart-toppers at 10k or above on Wednesday, so the burning question is, who's worth it? I'm not a huge fan of the pace-down as the Lakers take on Orlando so despite the promise of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, I'm going to leave them off. I feel the same way about James Harden against the Cavs. Instead of toiling in this range, I'm going to target a few guys just below the 10k threshold.
Russell Westbrook, HOU ($9,800) @ CLE
Westbrook's put up 50 or more DKFP in four consecutive games, and despite James Harden's ceiling, the $3,100 salary discrepancy is just too wide of a margin to pay for what could end up as comparable production from his teammate. This is a narrative that will continue to be in play for me every time Houston is on the slate, and unless Westbrook's price creeps up to a prohibitive level, I'll stick with the story I'm given and take the lower-priced option.
Devin Booker, PHO ($8,800) vs. MEM
The speedy pace of this matchup is alluring, and we're all aware of how Booker can explode with huge lines when the time is right. The Suns are right in the mix in a tough Western Conference, and the Grizzlies are markedly better than their record might indicate. Booker underperformed in his first game against Memphis back in early November, but I think he'll be ready to flip the script this time around.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($8,700) @ TOR
Revenge game alert! Raptors fans can't be too pleased about getting one of the game's best players on a one-year loaner. Granted, his addition resulted in a championship, but I think both teams will be eager to make a point as they tangle for a second time in Canada. The first contest this season was more of a defensive affair, resulting in a low-scoring 98-88 win for the Clippers. Leonard put up a double-double in that game, but it certainly wasn't his best stat line. I expect the game script to be a little different this time around, as the Clippers now have the services of Paul George ($8,400), who wasn't involved in the last contest. You guessed it - I'm endorsing George as well.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Kemba Walker, BOS ($7,600) @ IND
Don't get me wrong, I'm all about Devonte' Graham. He's in my primary seasonal league and I got him for a bargain, but is his dominance really driving Walker to this DFS price point? I'm understandably wary of the pace of this game but at this price, I have a hard time finding a way off of the former Hornet. There's no doubt that he's put up a couple of clunkers, but a 40 FKDP game locks him in at 5.2x value, and that's a number he can certainly get to, especially when you consider he's beaten that number in three of his last six games.
Ricky Rubio, PHO ($7,300) vs. MEM
I'll tell the same story as Booker with Rubio, who should excel in this scenario. He only managed six assists when he last faced Memphis, but I'm once again defying the numbers and proclaiming a better outcome for Rubio, who is averaging a whopping 9.2 dimes per game this season, a number that's on pace to be his career-best.
Buddy Hield, SAC ($7,100) vs. OKC
There's definitely a snooze-worthy quality to this contest, but Hield's scoring potential in a low-ownership spot might be too good to ignore. He's a solid cash anchor who can deliver an incredibly reliable floor -- he's scored 40 or more DKFP in six of his last ten games. These two teams have yet to meet, but I like Heild's chances opposite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari, who are the two most likely guys to cover him.
Taurean Prince, BKN ($6,600) vs. CHA
This is a great spot for almost any Net, but a great scoring opportunity for Prince, who's been humming lately as the team's starter at the four. He's had a spectacular three-game run that included a revenge matchup against the Hawks. Over that span, he averaged an impressive 16 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
Nemanja Bjelica ($5,900), SAC vs. OKC
Why do I keep coming back to this game? The numbers tell me I should stay away, but in my search for low-ownership GPP candidates, Bjelica stands out like a sore thumb when you drill down just below the surface information. Granted, we may very well see Marvin Bagley return, but he'll likely be on a minute restriction and we can still drain a little bit of value out of Bjelica tonight. Over his last five games, he's averaged a value-crushing 37.1 DKFP per game.
VALUE PLAYS
Ben McLemore, HOU ($5,400) @ CLE
I keep expecting McLemore to slow down, but it isn't happening yet. He's still logging close to 30 minutes per game in every matchup, and coach Mike D'Antoni appears to be pretty pleased with his production. Without Eric Gordon, there's a considerable need for a sixth man in the offense, and McLemore appears to be that guy.
Derrick Favors, NO ($4,800) @ MIL
Favors appears ready to return after a 12-game absence. While a bit of rust is to be expected, I really like Favors at this price in the highest-paced game of the night. Although injuries have plagued him this season, he's a stalwart presence in the Pelicans' interior when healthy. The highlight of his season was a 20/20 beatdown against the Clippers, so as he gets back in the swing of things, we'll likely see more big numbers.
Glenn Robinson III, GS ($4,700) vs. NY
I know I said I'd stay away from this game, but I think it's prudent to find a Golden State target in one of the few games where they'll actually be favored. I think if anyone has an advantage, it's Robinson, who's often been the leading scorer among this motley crew of rookies and journeymen. I think we can also make a case for a decent game from Willie Cauley-Stein, but the Knicks have a lot of question marks out on the wing and are actually stacked with big men. It could turn into a nice opportunity for Robinson.
Danny Green, LAL ($4,200) @ ORL
Green's salary has flown all over the place this season, but after a few days below $4k they've priced him a bit more appropriately tonight. As long as he stays this low, all you really need to beat value here is around 22 DKFP, and thanks to LeBron James, he gets the ball enough to routinely exceed that number.
SUMMARY
As is the case with such large slates, it's impossible to cover every value spot. I'd encourage relying on the Over/Under numbers and explore teams like Milwaukee and Minnesota to hunt for a little more value. I also think that a dual-elite approach in the sub-10k price range is the way to go tonight.
