This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As usual, there's a gigantic slate leading into the All-Star break, and with so many options, you're likely to be overwhelmed. The myriad of possibilities makes cash games a better ROI call, as a GPP will be tough to nail. But, as we all know, it only takes one lineup to win it all!
We've got James Harden ($11,800) out there again tonight, and he plays a team that (gasp) held him to less than 30 points in their last matchup. On a slate like this with so many options, you have a little more flexibility when it comes to the concept of fading Harden. I will play a Harden/other elite stars and scrubs lineup, but I will also spread a few lists without him, switching out some elite plays while sticking to a few value anchors.
Our three highest-paced games are GS/POR (235), WAS/TOR (233.5) and SAC/DEN (231). HOU/MIN has a high over/under as well, checking in at 229.5. Vegas may know something we don't, but I have a hard time believing that the WAS/TOR matchup deserves such a high break with a 103/101 pace differential. These are the four games I will focus around in my lineup builds. Eliminating entire games is a great way to gain focus on these large slates, and for Wednesday I won't be paying too much attention to MEM/CHI or MIA/DAL save a few pivot opportunities, and I'm also not too keen on exploring the MIL/IND matchup.
BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Celtics, 76ers, Grizzlies, Warriors
Here are some of the key injuries for Wednesday's slate:
Kawhi Leonard (knee) QUESTIONABLE: It's possible coach Nick Nurse will sit Leonard out for the Raptors' final game before the All-Star break. In that case, Norman Powell, OG Anunoby and Patrick McCaw could see extra minutes on the wing.
Kyrie Irving (knee) QUESTIONABLE: At the time of this writing, Kyrie is listed as out, but I think this could be upgraded. They may elect to sit him before the break, though. We should know very soon about his status. It was a quiet night from the Boston backcourt on Tuesday, with only Gordon Hayward ($4,800) producing a decent stat line, while everyone in the frontcourt powered the offense. It's hard to look away from Terry Rozier ($6,900) as the de facto starter, but his disappointing game last night will surely lower his ownership. The frontcourt will have a harder time against the Pistons, however.
Mike Conley (illness) QUESTIONABLE: It's likely Conley will return from an illness, but attention must be paid to Avery Bradley ($3,400), who came up in a big way in Conley's absence. 52 DKFP is nothing to sneeze at. He played almost 38 minutes, so it's possible that they'll look another way on this back-to-back, but this performance puts Bradley back on the fantasy radar.
Andrew Wiggins (illness) QUESTIONABLE: Wiggins was unable to practice on Tuesday, so it's possible he won't suit up against the Rockets. Since multiple people will fill this gap, I'm reluctant to give a full-throated endorsement to anyone in particular. But instead of guys like Josh Okogie or Luol Deng, I'd target Dario Saric ($4,600) as a flier candidate for more usage if Wiggins sits.
Kris Dunn (tailbone) QUESTIONABLE: If Dunn sits, your options aren't great as they relate to an injury pivot. Rather than target one of the many little-used options, I would carry Zach LaVine ($7,300) as a prime candidate to see more time.
DeMarcus Cousins (rest) OUT: This scratch eliminates one of my favorite center options for the evening. No one else on the Warriors roster has logged much time recently with Cousins' arrival, but it might be a good time to put Draymond Green ($6,000) back out there. While he's been serviceable since Cousins' arrival, his numbers have taken a dip, and his salary has lowered $1K as a result. For extreme value, I like Jordan Bell ($3,100) a punt option in the paint for the Warriors, with Kevon Looney ($3,700) as a solid value play.
Tomas Satoransky (personal) QUESTIONABLE: We have no clue as to Satoransky's status tonight. But if he's ruled out, there's decent value to be had here. I'll target one elite option below, but Chasson Randle ($3,800) should start in the event of Satoransky's absence, and I think Jordan McRae ($3,800) will get more opportunities as well.
CLEVELAND: Cedi Osman (ankle) and Ante Zizic (back) are both questionable. Kevin Love ($7,000) is still a little too cost-prohibitive relative to his current usage, so I expect both Larry Nance ($6,700) and Marquese Chriss ($3,900) to continue their run at the four and five positions.
VANVLEET TO LIN: With Fred VanVleet (thumb) out, we should see Jeremy Lin's ($4,300) first game as a Raptor, and he should serve as Kyle Lowry's primary backup. Lowry sees about 34 minutes per game, but you could also see him share time with Danny Green at the two spot. Lin could emerge as one of the better low-cost options on the slate against the Wizards.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at TOR ($8,700): With Satoransky potentially out, a lot of the backcourt production will flow from Beal, and he's also had great luck against the Raptors this season. Across three contests, he's AVERAGING 61 DKFP per game. That's a pretty impressive number against Toronto, and it puts him into the conversation when you're discussing a Harden-free lineup or a Harden tandem play.
Chris Paul, HOU at MIN ($7,600): I apologize for not going a little lower for my second pick, but when you consider how Harden "struggled" against Minnesota in their last game, I have a feeling Paul might be utilized a bit more. I predict a higher assist total for Harden and a higher point total for Paul overall in this matchup, and CP3's three straight 40-plus DKFP performances make him an excellent target if you can afford to spend up on a guard tonight.
Kadeem Allen, PHI at NY ($4,100): Our primary issue with rostering Allen is David Fizdale. Allen has emerged as the big point-getter at the two despite Damyean Dotson earning the start, but Fizdale's rotation choices fluctuate like the current weather in California, and he could pivot to Alonzo Trier at any given moment. The good news with Allen is that Mudiay and Ntilikina are still sidelined, which tells me that regardless of Fizdale's fickle nature, he'll continue to give Allen enough minutes to beat value at this price.
Additional guards to consider: Damian Lillard, POR vs. GS ($8,800), Jamal Murray, DEN vs. SAC ($6,200), Landry Shamet, LAC vs. PHO ($4,000)
FORWARDS
Kevin Durant, GS at POR ($9,300): Much like Beal, I think Durant is an excellent Harden pivot or stars-and-scrubs tandem for the Beard, as both his recent production and history against Portland are excellent. Couple the fast pace of this matchup and I think you have a perfect storm for Durant, who will also take on some added responsibility without DeMarcus Cousins on the floor. I think his rebounding numbers might be a slight concern here, but his triple-double against the Blazers is an encouraging sign. A look at his back-to-back numbers show little variance on the tail end, so I'm not too worried about that factor.
Bobby Portis, WAS at TOR ($6,300): Among all the new arrivals to the Wizards, I have the most confidence in Portis. Speed, size and opportunity are three metrics that I frequently use when considering talent, and Portis has all three in spades. His four-game average of 41 DKFP provides an excellent floor at this price, and I think his 6-11 frame will match up well against both Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka.
Marvin Bagley, SAC at DEN ($5,900): Bagley flirted with a double-double when he last played in the high altitude, and this was back in October when the Kings' game script wasn't in his favor. He's now the presumptive starter at the four in Sacramento, and he's also coming off a career-high 32 points against Phoenix three days ago. He should be well-rested and ready for a big total on Wednesday.
Additional forwards to consider: Montrezl Harrell, LAC vs. PHO ($6,900), Josh Jackson, PHO at LAC ($5,900), Gordon Hayward, BOS vs. DET ($4,800), Marquese Chriss, CLE vs. BKN ($3,800)
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. HOU ($10,300): It's a tough call between Towns and Jokic at the top, but I ultimately settled on KAT, primarily due to his excellent 60 DKFP performance against them in their last meeting. I give more credence to that metric because he put up that number while dealing with Clint Capela, who won't be a factor on Wednesday. All things considered, Towns' specific skill set will be too much for Houston's current interior to handle. Plus, the tandem of Harden and Paul put up more shots than any backcourt in the league, leaving Towns with plenty of opportunities off the glass.
Draymond Green, GS at POR ($6,000): I mentioned him before, and his salary looked so good in my final builds that I had to give him a highlighted endorsement. Let's look at a little B.C (Before Cousins) and A.B (After Boogie) numbers for Green. At first glance, they aren't that different, but he's averaged about two minutes less on the floor in the A.B. period and scored an average of about two points less in the A.B. period as well. That could mean a world of difference for Green, who can impact damage swiftly and decisively. The Warriors have also now grown more accustomed to a balanced attack that includes a reliable big man inside. There's some risk involved here, but at this price, I am willing to give it a whirl in a few of my lineups.
Boban Marjanovic, PHI at NY ($3,800): This is a bit of a stretch, but when you consider Embiid on the tail end of a back- to back and the likelihood that this game could get out of hand, Marjanovic emerges as a decent flier at center. Since coming to Philly, he's become Embiid's primary backup, and Embiid's numbers suggest a slight drop-off in these back-to-back scenarios.
Additional centers to consider: Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. GS ($7,400), Kenneth Faried, HOU at MIN ($6,600), Jonas Valanciunas, MEM at CHI ($4,200)
