This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIA (-2.5) vs. HOU, O/U: 219.5
TOR vs. BOS (-3.5), O/U: 222.5
IND (-3) vs. DET, O/U: 219
ORL vs. GS (-5.5), O/U: 224.5
PHI (-5.5) vs. POR, O/U: 229.5
Thursday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST and includes five games. Christian Wood remains out for the Rockets while John Wall is expected to play. Without much for clear value on this slate, the most significant injury news is Cole Anthony's status, who's listed as questionable after spraining his shoulder on Tuesday. Should he miss tonight, Frank Mason would presumably start at point guard and be the chalky pay-down option.
The MIA-HOU matchup seems like an appealing game to target. Both sides are still missing a few key players while Jimmy Butler, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins have affordable salaries that could suit mid-range builds should there not end up being much for cheaper value. The ORL-GS matchup could be another good target, especially if Cole Anthony ends up being out as the Warriors will also be shorthanded again. I don't mind fading the IND-DET matchup. The Pacers are playing the second night of a back-to-back after struggling in yesterday's loss and tonight's game against the Pistons features the slate's lowest total.
Injuries to Monitor
Christian Wood (ankle): OUT
Wood will be evaluated weekly after spraining his ankle. DeMarcus Cousins ($6,900) will continue to start at center.
John Wall (ankle): PROBABLE
Wall is expected to play tonight after spraining his ankle on Tuesday.
Evan Fournier (back): QUESTIONABLE
Fournier has missed consecutive games with back spasms but could return tonight. Dwayne Bacon ($4,400) has been starting at shooting guard in his place.
Goran Dragic (ankle): OUT
Dragic will miss his third straight game with a sprained ankle. Kendrick Nunn ($5,800) will likely get another start at shooting guard.
Cole Anthony (shoulder): QUESTIONABLE
Anthony suffered a shoulder strain on Tuesday and is listed as questionable for tonight. If he were to sit, Frank Mason ($4,000) would probably start at point guard.
Elite Players
Joel Embiid ($10,800)
Embiid is the most expensive player on the slate. His salary is also the highest it's been all season as he could be rostered for just $9,400 less than two weeks ago. The bump in salary is definitely overdue. He's coming off 62.75 DK points on Tuesday and has scored at least 52 in seven of his last nine. The Sixers have a favorable matchup against Portland tonight, and Embiid will be a popular spend-up option.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400)
Vucevic has put up 77.75 and 61.75 DK points in two of his last three games. He's seen an increase in usage since the injury to Aaron Gordon, and the Magic have Cole Anthony and Evan Fournier questionable for tonight's matchup against the Warriors. I like the salary savings he provides over Embiid, and you wouldn't be losing too much upside either.
Stephen Curry ($10,100)
It continues to be boom or bust for Curry. In his last five, he has two games of 41 DK points and two games of 73. The Warriors have a favorable matchup against the Magic tonight, and without many elite players on tonight's slate, Curry has a good chance to be the highest scorer. My interest will depend on whether we get enough cheap value to pay up in multiple spots.
Damian Lillard ($9,800)
Lillard has seen his salary drop under 10K for the first time in nine games. He's put up at least 48 DK points in three consecutive games and has ceiling potential every night. I don't see much difference between him and Curry. My interest in the two will depend on whether I have Magic or Sixers players in my lineup to pair them with.
Expected Chalk
Jimmy Butler ($8,400)
Butler has scored at least 44 DK points in all six games since returning from an extended COVID-19 absence. It's a bit surprising that his salary isn't higher. He's been right on the edge of a triple-double with at least eight rebounds and nine assists in four consecutive games. Without much for clear cheap value on this slate, I'd expect people to gravitate towards Butler rather than spend all the way up.
Frank Mason ($4,000)
The Cole Anthony injury news is the most important on the slate, as Frank Mason would become a chalky value option if Anthony were to miss. Evan Fournier is also listed as questionable, and Mason has seen significant run off the bench in three games since joining the Magic.
Value Picks
Jerami Grant ($7,400)
Grant has scored at least 44 DK points in three of the past four games and can still be rostered at a discount from where we've seen his salary in recent weeks. He gets all the usage he wants as the number one option in Detroit.
John Wall ($7,100)
Wall may go somewhat overlooked tonight, but I don't see any reason for a $700 gap between him and Victor Oladipo now that Wall is playing more minutes. He's one of the safer value plays on the slate, and it makes sense to pair him with Jimmy Butler.
Draymond Green ($6,800)
Green has really stepped up recently, as the Warriors have been shorthanded in the frontcourt. He's put up at least 40 DK points in three of the past four games while seeing mid-30s minutes.
Chris Boucher ($6,000)
Boucher finally seems to be getting more run. He's averaging 28 minutes in the past four and has games of 44 and 49 DK points in that span. His upside makes him a good option in tournaments.
Dwayne Bacon ($4,400)
If Cole Anthony plays and we don't get much for value tonight, you could do worse than Bacon, assuming Evan Fournier is out again. Bacon has played 31 minutes and topped 20 DK points in consecutive starts at shooting guard.
