This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have a slim four-game slate on Sunday, but the highlight of the day is crystal clear. The marquee matchup is a clash between the old and new guard in Los Angeles, but other interesting contests should also be monitored. The slate is excluding the earlier matchup between the Thunder and the Raptors.
SLATE OVERVIEW
DEN (-9.5) vs. SAC O/U: 210.5
HOU (-4.5) @ NO O/U: 230
MEM (-3.5) vs. CHA O/U: 217.5
LAL (-3.5) vs. DAL O/U: 221.5
With such a small slate, you can't readily fade any one matchup, and I actually think I've mentioned someone from every game in this article. Sacramento and Houston received the least mentions, and my logic behind fading the elites in Houston comes from an endorsement of other marquee guys tonight.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Clint Capela (heel) QUESTIONABLE
While Capela is listed as OUT in DraftKings, his injury isn't considered to be serious so he could return despite the back-to-back. Although Tyson Chandler started in his place, it was Isaiah Hartenstein ($3,000) who enjoyed the better day off the bench. Hartenstein is an amazing value at 3k, so an extra look at Capela's status could make or break your lineup.
De'Aaron Fox (back) QUESTIONABLE
I'm listing Fox as questionable as well, as his back spasms continue to be an intermittent problem. After the AM shootaround, he may say he's fine and be able to play, but Cory Joseph ($4,600) will start if he can't go. I also like Buddy Hield ($6,200) with Fox off the floor.
Marvin Bagley III ( foot) OUT
Bagley's back on the injury report again, so Nemanja Bjelica ($5,700) and Trevor Ariza ($4,200) represent the best pivot candidates but Richaun Holmes ($7,100) will also increase his load as the team's starting center.
ELITE PLAYERS
Our top players are all in back-to-back games. As a result, I think the fatigue factor is negated. Your picks at this level depend entirely on which contest you want to embrace. It's close for me, but based on past production against their opponent, my top two are clear and are both under 10k.
LeBron James ($9,800) and Anthony Davis ($9,700), LAL vs. DAL
For $19,500, the duo has accounted for an average of 122 points in two contests against the Mavericks. Although the HOU/NO game promise the biggest O/U total and James is working through an injury, I think the LA side of this game is the way to go. Luka Doncic ($11,400) posts an average of 67.3 DKFP against the Lakers over a two-game span. Going that way could give you almost 6x value if we trust his average - and I can see myself giving him some exposure today - but James and Davis are my best elite picks. I fade James Harden ($10,700) at my own peril. But if you're really a fan of this game's pace, going for Russell Westbrook ($9,200) will save you some cash.
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,100) vs. SAC
I don't know that you can trust this 31 DKFP two-game average against the Kings. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that Jokic didn't live up to his lofty salary to begin the season, but he seems to be humming on all cylinders now and is coming off three great games that included two triple-doubles. His lines against Sacramento aren't great and it could lead some away from him, so we might see low ownership for the center.
Brandon Ingram, NO ($8,100) vs. HOU
I'm stretching down the elite category due to the smaller slate, and Ingram certainly earns that moniker in this fast-paced matchup. He sports a great record against Houston, putting up 63 DKFP against them in one appearance this year, and a decent 42 DKFP average over two games last season. Ingram beats 6x value if he can split the difference and put up 50, but I'd be happy with a 45 DKFP for around 5.7x value and $180 per point*.
* I've received a question or two about this number and why it's important. Depending on your desired score - let's use 340, a GPP cash as an example - you take that number and divide it by your total salary allotment of $60,000. That gives you about $176 per DKFP, which means we're looking for guys who can help us get to that average. Of course, the number all depends on your projections.
Devonte' Graham, CHA ($7,900) @ MEM
You've got to pay attention to Graham every time he takes the floor. And although his price has vaulted to almost 8k, he still possesses the ability to crush value here if he hits his ceiling - which I project in the high 40s. The oddsmakers favor Memphis, but the Grizzlies struggle defensively and Graham will be looking to improve after he only put up 27 DKFP against them in their last meeting.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM vs. CHA ($6,700)
Charlotte's real weakness is under the basket, and I don't believe the combo of P.J. Washington and Cody Zeller will be particularly effective against the veteran big man. While we are on the subject of Washington, his recent return from injury has driven his price down to $5,500 and that immediately makes him a value consideration despite this matchup. But I think Valanciunas is worth this price.
Will Barton, DEN ($6,100) vs. SAC
Barton's not the flashiest pick, but you have to like his ability to get above 40 DKFP in the right scenario and I'd be thrilled if he could deliver that for us at this price. He's averaged 35 DKFP against the Kings over two games this season and that's pretty close to what we need.
Ja Morant, MEM ($6,400) vs. CHA
I think Morant is just a tad too expensive, but he makes the cut based on his superb 42 DKFP game against Charlotte in their first matchup. He also posted 32 DKFP against a tough Denver defense. If Morant can rack up enough assists, he could beat that number today.
Lonzo Ball, NO ($5,400) vs, HOU
Ball loves a big stage, and his talents will be on full display against the Rockets. While this is a back-to-back game for the Pelicans, he has a great history against Houston and his three-point shot is warming up. You can never count out Jrue Holiday ($7,800) as the bigger contributor, but I think Ball could have a big night.
VALUE PLAYS
Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($4,800) vs. DAL
Kuzma's now managed two-straight 30-plus DKFP performances, so I think we can discard the questionable tag that's been stuck to his name for weeks. Even with the back-to-back game, I don't expect much of a minute restriction but there's always a chance he could come up sore in the shootaround. This pick should be monitored a little more closely than others, but the value is there.
JJ Redick, NO ($4,300) vs. HOU
Redick can pop on any given night, and just an average performance from Redick can deliver almost 6k value. The pace and the favorable defensive matchup checks all the boxes, so I think Redick will be a solid value reach for players who think this game will match its over/under.
Jerami Grant, DEN ($3,800) vs. SAC
They utilized Grant for 32 minutes on the front end of this back-to-back so I can't verify if that was by design or not, but I think he's going to remain a relatively safe value as long as Paul Millsap continues to sit. There's always the possibility Grant got a lot of work for load management of other players, but I can't find anyone on the roster who gained a significant advantage from this move.
