This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have a second consecutive big night of hardwood action on tap Saturday, as nine games are on the slate following a massive 11-game ledger Friday. It's an almost even split in terms of projected competitive games and potential comfortable victories for favorites, with five of the nine contests carrying spreads of five points or fewer on DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday morning. Offense should be solid but not the overriding factor, as projected totals are all under 230 points, and one, Celtics-Thunder, is actually just under 220. It's also worth noting the injury report is heavy on big names, which could make value plays especially important in both cash games and tournaments.
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the three games on Saturday's slate with the highest projected totals on DraftKings Sportsbook as of early Saturday morning:
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans (Projected total: 229.5 points)
These two squads combined for 273 points in a regulation game the one previous time they met this season, and the Pelicans check into Saturday allowing 115.0 points per game, along with 47.3 percent shooting. Dallas has better numbers in both categories -- 111.0 PPG and 45.8 percent, respectively -- but New Orleans does put up an impressive 117.7 points per game at home. Naturally, the most pertinent factors in whether this game lives up to expectations are the health of Luka Doncic, who missed Friday's game for Dallas with back tightness and could end up a game-time decision Saturday, and Kristaps Porzingis, who noted after Friday's game he may be given Saturday off for rest.
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (Projected total: 228.5 points)
These two teams have had well-earned reputations as extremely slow, defensive-minded squads in the past, but that has changed to a degree in recent years. The Jazz have become much more of an offensive force this season, averaging the third-most points per game (116.8), including 117.8 per home contest. The Grizzlies also sport a much better offense on the road (114.8 PPG scored, compared to 109.1 at home). However, Utah allows an NBA-low 104.3 points on its home floor, while Memphis ranks in the top half of the league with 110.6 points surrendered per road game. Therefore, this could be a game that has some trouble living up to this number.
Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves (Projected total: 228.0 points)
These two clubs duked it out Friday night, and only 207 combined points were scored in a win for the T-Wolves, but that came with some unusual circumstances. Houston actually failed to score over the final 7:04 to blow what had been a 16-point lead. It's difficult to predict what the Rockets' state of mind will be Saturday, but the conditions are there on paper for some points to be scored. Minnesota surrenders the third-most points per game (117.0), while the Rockets are giving up the ninth most (113.4), including 115.1 per road game. The T-Wolves are also yielding the third-highest shooting percentage (47.9) of any team, but each team does check in ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in points scored per game.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Returning from Suspension: Malik Beasley, MIN
Possible rest days on back-to-backs: Kemba Walker, BOS/ Kristaps Porzingis, DAL
Joel Embiid, PHI (knee)/ Status: OUT
Embiid's ongoing absence Saturday should lead to Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard once again logging the minutes at center.
Luka Doncic, DAL (back)/ Status: GTD
If Doncic is forced to miss a second straight game, Jalen Brunson could see another start at point guard, while the usage of the remaining members of the starting five will naturally see a big boost.
Julius Randle, NYK (thigh)/ Status: PROBABLE
Randle is expected to play through his thigh issue without limitations.
Bradley Beal, WAS (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Beal sits out, Russell Westbrook's usage will go to even higher levels than usual, while Raul Neto and Garrison Mathews will see extra run at shooting guard.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Leonard sits out, Paul George, Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac should all see plenty of extra usage, and Luke Kennard could potentially enter the starting five.
Zach LaVine, CHI (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
A LaVine absence would send the usage of the rest of the Bulls' starting five skyrocketing, while Garrett Temple and Denzel Valentine would likely be direct beneficiaries at shooting guard.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (rest)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Porzingis sits out, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber and Boban Marjanovic could all benefit to an extent.
Evan Fournier, BOS (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Fournier could make his team debut Saturday and likely handle a starting role at shooting guard.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (foot)/ Status: OUT
SGA's ongoing absence should continue to afford Theo Maledon the start at point guard.
Serge Ibaka, LAC (back)/ Status: OUT
Ibaka's absence should lead to another start for Ivica Zubac at center.
Collin Sexton, CLE (hamstring)/ Status: GTD
If Sexton misses a third straight game, Darius Garland should see more ball-handling opportunities, while Isaac Okoro could remain in the starting five.
Lonzo Ball, NOP (hip)/ Status: OUT
Nickeil Alexander-Walker will draw another start at point guard with Ball already confirmed out for a fourth straight game.
Other notable injuries:
Delon Wright, SAC (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Derrick Rose, NYK (conditioning)/ Status: GTD
Elfrid Payton, NYK (hamstring)/ Status: PROBABLE
Reggie Bullock, NYK (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
D'Angelo Russell, MIN (quadriceps)/ Status: OUT
Marcus Morris, LAC (calf)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Dennis Smith, DET (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Rajon Rondo, LAC (groin)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Kevin Love, CLE (calf)/ Status: GTD
Daniel Theis, CHI (trade acquisition)/ Status: OUT
Lonnie Walker, SAN (wrist)/ Status: OUT
Eric Gordon, HOU (groin)/ Status: OUT
Danuel House, HOU (personal)/ Status: OUT
Darius Bazley, OKC (shoulder)/ Status: OUT
Elite Players
There are five players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate, beginning with Russell Westbrook ($11,000) and continuing with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), Luka Doncic ($10,800), Julius Randle ($10,200) and Joel Embiid ($10,000). However, this is a list that is partly affected by injury, with Doncic questionable and Embiid out. Randle also carries a probable designation, but as that implies, he's expected to play.
The remaining two players – Westbrook and Antetokounmpo – are interesting for different reasons. Westbrook could potentially be taking the floor without Bradley Beal, who has a questionable designation due to a foot injury. If his backcourt mate misses, Westbrook would naturally see his already strong value enhanced even further. Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo doesn't have an official injury designation as of this writing, but he has not looked himself in his two games following a one-game absence due to a knee sprain. Giannis has scored under 20 points in both contests, which came against the Celtics, and is now playing his third game in four nights against the Eastern Conference's toughest defensive squad in the Knicks.
There are also several players with salaries in the high four figures free of injury designations that have the ability to deliver elite scores, including Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700), Nikola Vucevic ($9,500) and De'Aaron Fox ($8,900).
Towns was outstanding Friday against the same Rockets squad he'll face Saturday, posting 64.0 DK points over 35 minutes. However, Malik Beasley is slated to return from his 12-game suspension Saturday, which could put a bit of a ding in Towns' usage. Vucevic will be making his Bulls debut, and given his considerable talent and the caliber of season he's enjoying, he could well hit the ground running on his new team. Vucevic's usage would also see a bump if Zach LaVine sits out with his ankle injury. Meanwhile, Fox has scored between 49.5 and 63.5 DK points in his last three games and is coming off having scored a career-high 44 points versus the Warriors on Thursday.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the names just detailed in the Elite Players section, other likely chalk plays include Nickeil Alexander-Walker with Ball confirmed as out; the remaining healthy members of the Mavericks starting five if Doncic and/or Porzingis sit out; Paul George if Kawhi Leonard sits out; Ivica Zubac with Serge Ibaka sitting out another game and the big man having scored over 30 DK points in five of the last seven overall; and Richaun Holmes with an excellent matchup against the Cavaliers and coming off a pair of tallies of more than 40 DK points in his last three.
Key Values
Mason Plumlee, DET at WAS ($6,200)
Plumlee is now averaging 30.9 DK points per game after scoring 35.0 to 42.0 in his last three contests. The big man hasn't been below 25.0 DK points in any of his last 10 games, either, and he's actually been better on the road with a 63.2 percent success rate from the floor and 30.9 DK points per game. The matchup Saturday against the Wizards is a highly appealing one, as Washington allows the second-most DK points per game (62.0) to centers on the season, along with the third-highest offensive efficiency (34.9 percent) to the position. Washington also allows the third-highest offensive efficiency in the paint (60.6 percent), where Plumlee scores 78.0 percent of his points.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, NOP vs. DAL ($5,300)
Alexander-Walker has been excellent in Lonzo Ball's stead over the last three games, scoring 32.25 to 36.25 DK points. The second-year guard has put in some hefty workloads during that span as well, logging between 31 and 39 minutes. Ball is out again Saturday. Although the matchup against the Mavericks isn't normally an especially appealing one for DFS purposes, the Mavs could well be without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Alexander-Walker has averaged a solid 18.6 DK points across just 19.2 minutes at home this season while typically coming off the bench, and he's averaging 36.0 DK points per 36 minutes without Ball on the floor this season.
Sterling Brown, HOU at MIN ($5,000)
Brown will once again be in the starting five with Danuel House out of action Saturday, which will give the former a chance to build on the 11-point, 11-rebound double-double he notched Friday night against this same T-Wolves squad. The performance netted an impressive 32.75 DK points, but it's far from the only notable effort Brown has produced recently. He'd also tallied between 23.75 and 41.0 DK points in four other games over the prior nine, and Minnesota will check into Saturday's contest allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency (24.3 percent) to small forwards, along with 55.0 DK points per game to players with small forward designations. Brown has also been a more productive player on the road overall, averaging 21.1 DK points across 25.1 minutes over 20 games.
Other value plays to consider: Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. PHI ($5,900); Tim Hardaway, DAL at NOP ($5,500); Mitchell Robinson, NYK at MIL ($5,400); Lauri Markkanen, CHI at SA ($5,200); Shake Milton, PHI at LAC ($5,100); Isaiah Stewart, DET at WAS ($4,600); Ben McLemore, HOU at MIN ($3,200)
