This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's featured slate on DraftKings is a five-game offering that kicks off at 2:30 p.m. EDT. As we head into the last few days of the regular season, things are going to get very interesting in the DFS landscape, and we already have some notable players taking a seat as they rest for the postseason. Let's dip right into the action.
SLATE OVERVIEW
Games or teams to target are list in BOLD, while games/teams to fade are in ITALICS
OKC vs. PHO (-5.5) O/U: 224
DAL vs. UTA (-6.5) O/U: N/A
TOR vs. MIL (-5.5) O/U: N/A
IND vs. MIA (-2.5) O/U: N/A
DEN vs. LAL (-5.5) O/U: 221
The Raptors clinched the second seed in the East last night, and with the Bucks firmly at the pole position in the conference, this potential Eastern final preview is of no consequence. We've already seen Milwaukee limit some of their starters, and it's only a matter of time before Toronto does the same thing, and it may very well happen tonight. Of course, we will have to monitor the starting lineups as they are announced, but it's a game I will only go to if we have visible value pivots. Every team on the slate except the Raptors, Lakers and Bucks have something to play for tonight, and although I am sure we can find some value as elites are benched, there's only one team that we know are carrying out that scenario. We'll get to that team in the injury section.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
For the most part, the guard baseline breaks at about $6,100 for chalk players, so while it is slimmer than usual, there are spots at multiple salary levels. The forward position is a bit more plentiful, and I would set the baseline for forwards at around $5,500. As usual, centers are a bit more shallow, and the dropoff occurs fairly quickly at $7,800. You're going to find that the center position might be a place where we make a very significant value pivot.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Luka Doncic, DAL (ankle/rest) OUT
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee/rest) OUT
Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL (hip) OUT
This is the biggest news of the slate by a mile, so we need to spend extra time on this situation. There was a stretch from late January to mid-February that the Mavs were without Doncic due to injury. Tim Hardaway ($5,600) and Seth Curry ($4,100) saw the most significant boost in his absence. Porzingis's situation is a little cloudier, as Boban Marjanovic ($3,000) was also absent for many of the games that Porzingis missed. We also have to factor in Trey Burke ($3,700), who has yet to play when both of their Mavs stars are out altogether. I think Hardaway tops my list of pivots, as he can absorb some production from both spots. Maxi Kleber ($4,200) would have to rank second on my list, and I'm good with both of them in cash. For GPPs, I think Burke is the guy you have to look at, and Boban would only need 16 DKFP to beat value at his low salary. Curry is a bit of a wild card due to his leg injury, but he's a viable GPP candidate. There are other places to go on this roster, but these guys carry the least amount of risk.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (tooth/rest) - PROBABLE
LeBron James, LAL (groin) - PROBABLE
Anthony Davis, LAL (ankle) - PROBABLE
Stay away. I can't say it any more simply. I'm sure this trio will play well, but none of these guys are likely to beat value. To be worth the cost, the absolute lowest number that would be acceptable in this grouping is 50 DKFP, and when you look at what's at stake for LA and Milwaukee (very little), one has to assume that both teams will take it easy with these guys. I'm going to stick with that conviction, and if I get burned, so be it. Since I'm going with my gut on this and could be entirely incorrect, I'm not going to offer any pivots due to the obvious volatility involved with this hunch.
T.J. Warren, IND (foot) QUESTIONABLE
We have to wait and see on Warren, but he had this tag the other day and went on to post 48 DKFP against the Lakers. The Pacers are sandwiched between the Heat and the 76ers, and I'm sure they would like to snag the fourth seed, so the team would welcome a thumbs up from Warren at the shootaround. He's a bit expensive at $8,400, but if he's good to go, I will give him a good bit of exposure in my builds.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA (leg) QUESTIONABLE
When you consider that Dallas is sending out a rag-tag group, I feel that the Jazz will play it safe with Mitchell. With only two seeding games left, there isn't much the Jazz can do other than leapfrog the Thunder to take the fifth seed. If I ran the Jazz, I'd probably rather play the Nuggets over the Rockets anyway, so it's anyone's guess as to how motivated they will be. I am going to continue rolling with Mike Conley ($6,100), as his salary and potential production are too good to pass up.
Jimmy Butler, MIA (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Reports say he is 'on track' to play, and this game has several playoff ramifications in terms of seeding. It's also going to be interesting to see how Butler and Warren fare opposite each other, as the last confrontation in January resulted in a technical for Warren. I think both of these guys will be pumped for a rematch.
Steven Adams, OKC (leg) QUESTIONABLE
Nerlens Noel, OKC (ankle) OUT
Dennis Schroder, OKC (personal) OUT
This spot is simple. If you follow my articles, you know how much I like Luguentz Dort ($4,000). I still can't get over how low his salary is, and how few people are rostering him, after exceeding value in almost every game he's played. Granted, the Thunder are on a back-to-back, but I'm still going to throw a lot of love Dort's way once again. I also feel like Darius Bazley ($3,300) could be our best value on the slate. He surpassed everyone's expectations in Adams' absence. We would need to check on the center's status before heading in this direction, but if Adams is out, I'm all over Dort AND Bazley.
ELITE PLAYERS
As I said, there's so much uncertainty at the top, we hardly have an elite section to fill out. So, I'll skew the requirements to a slightly lower salary point. Nikola Jokic ($9,100) is up there in the stratosphere and is an excellent choice, but I'm more inclined to go with Deandre Ayton ($8,000) for $1,100 less, and for obvious reasons. The potential jumble at center for the Thunder will be an exploitable spot for Ayton, and the Suns need this win desperately. I might adjust my thinking if Adams suits up, but for now, Ayton is my guy in the paint.
Devin Booker, PHO ($8,700) vs. OKC
Speaking of motivation, the Suns will need the best out of Booker down the stretch. Unfortunately for DFS players, Booker lacks consistency in the bubble. He's had two great games and two so-so ones relative to his salary. We need him to get close to 50 DKFP to make him worthwhile. He's hit that threshold against the Clippers and the Heat in Orlando.
Chris Paul, OKC ($8,200) vs. PHO
Is it even fair to say that Paul flies under the radar? His popularity numbers have been lower than normal, but I think they'll spike Monday. This is one of my favorite games on the slate in terms of pace and playoff significance. Paul's previous history against the Thunder averaged right at 40 DKFP, which is the bare minimum we need from him in order to make this spend-up worthwhile.
Also consider: Michael Porter, DEN ($7,700) vs. LAL
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,800) vs. TOR
Even though the Bucks are close to shutting down their stars, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Middleton will still be heavily in the mix Monday. I have no idea of how the Raptors will react to their second-seed clinch, and that's one reason that I'm fading that side of this game. Our ideal scenario is that Middleton gets hot in the first half and Giannis sits in the third quarter, giving Middleton more opportunities.
Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,600) vs. DAL
If the Ayton exploit doesn't excite you, the Gobert option against the Porzingis-less Mavericks should have plenty of appeal. Gobert played the Mavs twice in much less favorable circumstances and averaged 48 DKFP over the two contests. Gobert hasn't been as consistent as I'd like, and I think this is the first seeding game that he's garnered any interest for me. I suspect that I'll keep an eye on Adams, and if he plays, I'll have plenty of room to slide down to Gobert from Ayton.
Ricky Rubio, PHO ($6,500) vs. OKC
The streaky Rubio is a tough option to go with, but motivation is a big intangible that you have to embrace when it comes to the Suns. They are easily the Cinderella story of the bubble right now, and I'm disappointed that it's the first game on the slate. There's so much to like, it immediately limits our pivot opportunities for later contests. That alone will reduce my exposure to him, but it's important to note that he's exceeded 5x value in three of his five bubble contests.
Also consider: Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($6,900) vs. MIA. Also, follow news about the Raptors, and if you can glean any information about playing time, Fred VanVleet ($7,300) and Pascal Siakam ($7,400) could be strong recommendations.
KEY VALUES
As usual, I'm advising that you scroll back to the injury report to find the best values. In this order, I'm promoting Dort, Bazley (if Adams sits), Hardaway, and Kleber. Burke and Marjanovic are my GPP punt plays. Here are some other value spots.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,300) vs. IND
He popped with a huge game upon Kendrick Nunn's (personal) departure from the bubble with 51 DKFP against the Suns. Based on Herro's salary, I'd be elated with two-thirds of that production. The only thing stopping this endorsement is the possible return of Goran Dragic ($4,900), who might take over in the starting five over Herro. Since this is the next-to-last game on the slate, you could slot in one of them and quickly pivot to the other due to the similar salaries.
Cameron Johnson, PHO ($5,200) vs. OKC
Johnson has been exceedingly popular in Orlando, but he's shown a few cracks in his armor with games that don't warrant his salary. His success hinges heavily on his rebounding numbers, and he could find considerable success against the Thunder if their frontcourt struggles as expected. Going with Johnson adds yet another player to this game, and I'm usually gun-shy about front-loading the slate, but if you're fading Booker and Ayton, I'm fine with this option.
It's imperative that you keep a close eye on late-breaking news Monday. To double-check your builds, I recommend checking in with our Advanced Lineups tool to get the latest information as games lock.
