This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's slate is a 10-game offering that gives us a lot of fast-paced matchups to choose from. Let's get right to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
IND (-5) vs. DAL O/U: 218.5
CLE (-1.5) vs. NY O/U: 217
WAS (-5) vs. GS O/U: 235
ORL (-4) @ CHAR O/U: 203
BOS (-6) @ ATL O/U: 227.5
MIA (-2.5) @ PHI O/U: 213
BKN (-2) vs. PHO O/U: 228
MEM (-7) vs. DET O/U: 230
SAC (-2) vs. MIN O/U: 227.5
LAC (-9.5) vs. SA O/U: 227.5
Orlando and Charlotte are going to be complete fades for me, and tonight is also a night where I'm going to try and stay away from picks on Miami and Philly. Every other game is in play, and there are a lot of clean and clear pivots available in injury situations across the slate.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Luka Doncic (ankle) OUT
It looks like Doncic may be out through the All-Star break, so it may take a couple of games for a reliable pivot to solidify. Jalen Brunson ($6,000) will get the start, and a 44 DKFP game against Atlanta two days ago is a good indicator of his usage moving forward. A whole host of other Mavs came through with increased production in Doncic's absence, with Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,100) leading the pack. We also saw value-beating totals from Delon Wright ($5,200), J.J. Barea ($4,400) and even Valpo grad and Aussie Ryan Broekhoff ($3,400). These lower-salaried players should probably be faded for a game or two until we get a slightly larger sample size.
Trae Young (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Reports indicate that Young's injury isn't serious, so it's possible that we may see him tonight. If he's unable to go, it leaves a huge hole in Atlanta's production. I think Kevin Huerter ($5,400) is the best backcourt pivot for the price if Young can't go, but a glimpse of Atlanta's starting five closer to tip-off will also provide some insight into our projections.
Kyrie Irving (ligament sprain) OUT
Irving is back on the injury report for at least a few games, which means it's once again safe to fire up Spencer Dinwiddie ($8,000). DraftKings has kept up with the scenario and is making it really difficult to justify him as an add at 8k, however. After some number-crunching, I think your best value in terms of usage increase with Irving out is Caris LeVert ($4,700), who sees a 5 percent usage bump and a 7-DKFP increase when Irving is off the floor.
D'Angelo Russell (quad) QUESTIONABLE
The high O/U of this game makes this a worthy situation to monitor - otherwise, Russell's recent erratic play would keep him off my radar. Alec Burks ($5,300) is your most sensible pivot if Russell can't make it.
Julius Randle (hip) QUESTIONABLE
If the Knicks choose to keep Randle out, Bobby Portis ($3,700) should emerge as a low-cost pivot, while Marcus Morris ($6,600) would be the best mid-range starter to target.
Kemba Walker (knee) OUT
Marcus Smart (thigh) QUESTIONABLE
With both of Boston's point guard options on the mend, it might be best to just funnel your exposure to the rest of the starters, even if Smart is cleared (i.e., Brown, Tatum, Hayward). Brad Wanamaker ($3,600) would be a great low-cost pivot if Smart doesn't play.
Derrick Rose (groin) QUESTIONABLE
Rose's current status is unknown at time of publishing, but Reggie Jackson ($4,700) is the obvious pivot if Rose is sidelined.
Ricky Rubio (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
There's no word on Rubio yet, but if he remains out, we have a pretty reliable source for information about who to go with if he misses, thanks to Sunday's game. Elie Okobo started but did very little, so I would stay away from him. Jevon Carter ($3,000) was the guy who ran away with the role Sunday and based on the current state of the roster, I'd be fine rolling with him if Rubio sits.
ELITE PLAYS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($10,600) @ SAC
Aside from a hiccup against Toronto, Towns has been incredibly steady since returning from injury, averaging 28.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists over eight games. The Kings are still dealing with injuries to Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes, leaving only Dewayne Dedmon and Harry Giles to defend the paint. While you can probably find some bargains at center tonight, I think they'll all pale in comparison to what Towns could put up in this scenario.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($10,300) vs. SA
Despite his inflated price, Leonard's managed to stay at or just below 5x value for a majority of his last 10 games. I need more than 50 DKFP from him to justify this price, and he did just that in his last matchup against his former team. He's met the Spurs enough times to where I wouldn't use revenge as a measurable (unless he was in the AlamoDome). Both Leonard and George are now healthy, so I think now is the time for the Clippers to really put on the gas and end strong before the All-Star break.
Bradley Beal, WAS ($10,100) vs. GS
I wish I could quit you, Bradley Beal. I know at some point this cavalcade of prolific production will end, but you can't ask for a better matchup for Washington than a tangle with the struggling Warriors. Although they've yet to meet Golden State, the Hornets are almost as bad as the Warriors and have similar weaknesses. Beal laid the hammer down with 62 DKFP against Charlotte, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a similar number from him at home tonight.
Also consider: Andre Drummond, DET ($9,400) @ MEM, Gordon Hayward, BOS ($7,900) @ ATL
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($7,000) @ SAC
Despite the size of this slate, some plays stick out very plainly, and Wiggins is one of those guys you can't avoid when you're looking for high-ceiling targets. Wiggins didn't play particularly well against the Clippers on Saturday but his two-game history against the Kings is pretty strong, averaging 52 DKFP over two contests. 35 DKFP is all he needs to meet value, but what we really want is a huge pop in production here, and I think tonight will be a great chance for Wiggins to bounce back.
Ja Morant, MEM ($6,800) vs. DET
Detroit may be without Derrick Rose tonight, leaving Reggie Jackson to defend the talented Morant. Although I don't think this game will break the 130 O/U threshold set by the bookmakers, it's still an indicator that the pace of this game might be higher than most people think. I, for one, am buying into the Memphis hype and I think this group of youngsters, led by Morant, can beat anyone on any given night. Morant met value in his last matchup, and I think a healthier version of the Grizzlies will only help his cause to exceed his last outing.
Elfrid Payton, NY ($6,500) @ CLE
Payton will definitely be well-rested after a one-game suspension. He continues to take advantage of RJ Barrett's extended absence, and with Julius Randle potentially out tonight, Payton will need to create his own shot opportunities while dishing the ball over to the less capable hands of Bobby Portis. This is a game I don't mind giving some exposure too, as it's 217 O/U and narrow spread should mean a pace increase for both teams.
Collin Sexton, CLE ($6,200) vs. NY
Sexton leads the Cavs with over 27 percent usage, and even though Cleveland has lost 10 of their last 11 games, Sexton has rarely missed a beat. I think he could end up largely overlooked tonight, but with a floor of 27 and a ceiling of 44 over his last 10 games, it's hard to ignore him at this price. As I said above, this is a game I don't mind loading up on despite the struggles associated with both teams.
Jaren Jackson, MEM ($6,100) vs. DET
I'll continue to ride the suspension express and give some love to Jackson, who should also be well-rested and ready to go Monday. He excelled with a 44.5 DKFP outing in his last game against Detroit, and the surging Grizzlies should be able to exploit the Pistons' interior, which has been manhandled in recent games.
Also consider: Deandre Ayton, PHO ($7,700) @ BKN, Thomas Bryant, WAS ($5,800) vs. GS, Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($6,300) vs. DAL
VALUE PLAYS
PLEASE pay attention to the injury pivots in the first section to get the best value spots available. Unlike other slates, recommendations in that section are especially clear and chock-full of value tonight.
Mikal Bridges, PHO ($4,500) @ BKN
If you haven't noticed that Bridges has not only started, but logged an average of 31.4 minutes of court time over the past 10 days, it might be time to take a closer look. I will freely admit that his numbers have been all over the place during that span, but it doesn't take long to notice a very clear ceiling when the game script is flowing his way. Finding a starter with that kind of potential in the 4k range is rare, and finding him on a night where his game boasts a decent Over/Under is even rarer.
Tristan Thompson, CLE ($5,300) vs. NY
His center designation will limit you to two spots, but I like Thompson as a GPP play if Randle remains out for the Knicks. Thompson is a great pivot off the higher-priced Kevin Love in this spot, and I think the Cavs will utilize Thompson more than usual based on the potential of Bobby Portis' involvement in the frontcourt. In three matchups against the Knicks, Thompson's averaged 30 minutes of court time with an average of 30 DKFP per game.
Brandon Goodwin, ATL ($3,200) vs. BOS
If we get a Young scratch closer to game lock, I'll be trying to find a spot for Goodwin and hopefully grabbing a bit more cash for other positions. It might not be a bad idea to run with him anyway, on the chance that Young starts and struggles with his injury.
