This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's slate provides us with seven games, and many of them are high-pace contests with narrow spreads, which is a perfect storm for our lineup builds.
DET (-5) vs. WAS O/U: 229.5
TOR (-12.5) vs. CLE 217.5
MIL (-11) vs. DAL O/U: 227.5
HOU (-10) vs. SA O/U: 233
MIA (-4.5) @ MEM O/U: 217.5
OKC (-6) vs. CHI O/U: 208.5
PHO (-0.5) vs. POR O/U 228.5
The Blazers/Suns matchup is my favorite game of the night, and there's also some spots that I like in the Spurs/Rockets game.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Luka Doncic (ankle) OUT
We'll leave this in the ongoing injury pile after this mention. Right now Jalen Brunson ($5,000) is your fill-in guy but I also like Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,800) as a guy who will step up in this scenario.
Andre Drummond (eye) QUESTIONABLE
This injury occurred Saturday, so he may have had enough time to heal. If he sits, Christian Wood ($4,500) would see a boost in production with Blake Griffin (knee) also questionable.
Devin Booker (forearm) QUESTIONABLE
Mikal Bridges ($4,100) would start if Booker can't go, but Booker will make every attempt to get on the floor in what should be the slate's most competitive contest.
Fred VanVleet (knee) DOUBTFUL
The start here will remain with Norman Powell ($5,500), but Kyle Lowry ($7,700) is worth looking at as well.
Thomas Bryant (foot) and Moritz Wagner (ankle) OUT
This spot will remain the Davis Bertans ($6,300) show in the short term, with Rui Hachimura ($6,400) also lending a hand.
Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic (OUT)
While I expect Jimmy Butler ($9,100) to drive the bus here, Kendrick Nunn ($6,300) remains a solid option, with Tyler Herro ($4,600) providing a lot of upside at his price.
Jae Crowder (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Crowder is a vital cog for Memphis so several Grizzlies will need to step up. Kyle Anderson ($3,700) will get the start, although I'm not too confident in him as a pivot candidate. Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,300) is a more reliable target here.
ELITE PLAYERS
James Harden, HOU ($12,900) vs. SA
At more than twice the DK median price, Harden comes at a hefty cost, but I'm using his 78 DKFP performance in his last game against the Spurs as a guide. What's truly hilarious is that if he replicates that number he'll still only be a 5.4x value, but he's a viable play if you litter your lineup with a host of cheap injury pivots like the ones we mentioned above. Russell Westbrook ($9,600) had a 55 DKFP might against the Spurs and as I've said before, I'll almost always favor Westbrook when I get similar floors for $3,300 (!) less.
Without Luka Doncic, the Bucks should handle Dallas without too much help from Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) who I'll run with all day seasonally, but will reserve his DFS services for games with a much narrower spread than the one we have tonight.
As I said above, look for Jimmy Butler ($9,100) to post a good number against Memphis.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($8,600) vs. CLE
As we look for balance on a slate that you could assemble elite-free, Siakam would emerge as a guy you should consider against the Cavaliers. His floor will remain in the low 40-DKFP range, but he has the goods to push it to 50 in the right situation. Somewhere in between those numbers would push his FPP$ value to a more satisfying place.
Ricky Rubio, PHO ($7,900) vs. POR
I like Rubio in my favorite game of the night, and I like him even more if Booker can't go, as he'll need to amp up his scoring to stave off a more predictable backcourt scheme. Both Mikal Bridges and Kelly Oubre Jr. ($7,000) should be able to help with that, but I would only target Oubre in Booker's absence, while Rubio is a solid play in either scenario.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($6,900) vs, DAL
Middleton is finally settling back into his 2018-19 salary and production. I used Middleton as a nice security blanket in many a cash game win over the past couple of years, and I like his prospects in what should be an extremely soft game for the Bucks. While he sees similar minutes to Giannis in a blowout, he comes at a price where I can tolerate that limitation.
Steven Adams, OKC ($6,700) vs. CHI
I haven't called for No. 12 much this season, but Adams has amped up his scoring of late and he should be able to keep the cylinders humming against one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Adams is coming off three straight double-doubles. This setup should deliver his fourth in a row.
C.J. McCollum, POR ($6,500) @ PHO
McCollum hasn't been spectacular of late, but I'm a big fan of this matchup and it could be a nice spot for him to come alive and deliver a number that beats projections. He doesn't need to do a whole lot to hit value at $6,500, and I like him as a GPP candidate with the potential to pop off a high number.
Also consider: Bertans, Hachimura and Nunn (see above), Carmelo Anthony, POR ($6,000), Dennis Schroder, OKC, ($5,700)
VALUE PLAYS
The injury section has a lot of pivot value, but here are some additional bargain candidates.
Luke Kennard, DET ($5,400) vs. WAS
It's a nice spot for Kennard as the Pistons are actually favored in this matchup. Despite their record, they've been rolling against the spread for much of the season. The potential absence of Drummond will require all facets of the Detroit offense to be on notice, so I expect Kennard to throw out one of his better numbers against the Wizards.
Rudy Gay, SA ($4,900) @ HOU
I have no problem going with Gay in this intrastate rivalry game. The contest sports one of the highest O/Us on the slate, and if Gay can do just a little bit more than the 26.3 DKFP performance he delivered in his last game against Houston, he should match value at $4,900.
Aron Baynes, PHO ($4.800) vs. POR
Baynes logged 21 minutes Saturday in a game where he was questionable to suit up, so it appears that his calf injury may be in the rear-view mirror. You'd need to monitor the Suns' starting five to go in this direction.
Donte DiVincenzo, MIL ($4,600) vs. DAL
Get DiVincenzo now in your weekly leagues with Eric Bledsoe out for the remainder of the month, and he's also a great DFS value-beater while he starts in Bledsoe's stead. You won't find better production at this price level.
Ersan Ilyasova, MIL ($4,400) vs. DAL
We always get a decent dose of Ilyasova in a Milwaukee blowout game, and with the Mavs running without Doncic, this is as good of a spot as any for Ilyasova to spell Giannis and make an appearance. Don't expect a miracle here, but he's reasonable enough if you've loaded up on someone like Harden.
Also consider: P.J. Tucker, HOU ($4,400), Tyus Jones, MEM ($4,000), Kevin Porter Jr., CLE ($3,8000)
SUMMARY
We have enough basement value that reaching for Harden isn't unreasonable, but loading three guys in the 7-9k range probably provides the most bang for your buck. I neglected to add Spurs stars like LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, but they will probably get 10 percent exposure from me due to the lofty over/under.
