This article is part of our DFS Basketball 101 series.
Soon the NFL Fantasy Football season will come to an end, which means a lull until fantasy baseball starts. Most players are gearing up by doing offseason MLB research, but that does not mean your daily fantasy needs cannot be met. Daily fantasy basketball can be the perfect bridge from football to baseball because it's the most constant daily fantasy game, night in, night out.
Factors for Outperforming Salary
One of the biggest keys in daily fantasy basketball is knowing how to extract value from players on a given night. Here are some of the things to consider:
1) Player is on a hot streak and salary hasn't risen
2) Player is inheriting additional playing time due to injury/suspension/role change
3) Player has favorable matchup against opposing position
4) Player has favorable matchup against poor team defense
5) Player has favorable matchup against backup opposing defender
6) Player is going against a team that is shorthanded due to injury/trade/etc.
7) Player returns from injury giving value to teammates
Measures to Use when Making Daily NBA Lineups
Defense vs Position
The strongest indicator to building lineups in daily fantasy basketball is the defense versus position measure. Identifying the players who have the best matchups is the way to start your daily cheat sheet. (Ranks in parentheses – the higher the rank; the better the matchup). Any matchup that is 25th or higher is one to focus on. You can get all the updated rankings here on Rotowire's Defense vs. Position page.
Bottom 5 Teams Defense vs Position
PG - Lakers, Celtics, Pacers, Bulls, Magic
SG - 76ers, Knicks, Timberwolves, Kings, Suns
SF - Nets, 76ers, Pelicans, Trailblazers, Grizzlies
PF - Celtics, Pistons, Bucks, 76ers, Lakers
C - Timberwolves, Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, 76ers
Team Pace
Pace is the total number of possessions a team uses in a game. The formula is Pace Formula = [240/(Team Minutes)]*(Possessionteam+Possessionopponent)/2
Finding a matchup with two teams that average a higher pace than normal is key, because it means more possessions in the game. This will translate to more opportunities for points, rebounds and assists. On the flip side, you want to avoid teams that will be in matchups that are very low pace. I usually have a spreadsheet with each matchup that will have the team pace, and I take the average of both teams to get a "Game Pace".
NBA Team Pace Overall Rankings (12/12/14)
1) Celtics 100.7
2) Warriors 100.3
3) 76ers 99.7
4) Timberwolves 99.0
5) Suns 98.9
6) Nuggets 98.3
7) Lakers 97.8
8) Rockets 96.7
9) Trailblazers 96.4
10) Bulls 96.3
11) Bucks 96.2
12) Clippers, Mavs, Hawks 96.1
15) Wizards 96.0
16) Raptors 95.8
17) Spurs 95.7
18) Kings 95.5
19) Magic 94.9
20) Pelicans, Cavs 94.8
22) Pacers, Nets, Pistons 94.5
25) Hornets 94.4
26) Thunder 94.3
27) Grizzlies 94.1
28) Jazz 93.0
29) Knicks 91.9
30) Heat 91.7
Total Pace for 12/12/14
76ers/Nets - 194.2
Lakers/Spurs - 193.5
Pistons/Suns - 193.4
Thunder/T'Wolves - 193.3
Trailblazers/Bulls - 192.7
Knicks/Celtics - 192.6
Clippers/Wizards - 192.1
Magic/Hawks - 191.0
Pacers/Raptors - 190.3
Cavs/Pelicans - 189.6
Hornets/Grizzlies - 188.5
Heat/Jazz - 184.7
Vegas Odds
When building your daily fantasy basketball projections, one of the biggest factors will be what Vegas says the projected outcome is going to be. You can use the line and the total to assess how to build your projections. You want to focus on games that have the smallest spread with the highest total. Ideally, you want the top three to four games with a projected point total of at least 200 points and within five points on the spread.
76ers/Nets: 195.5 total, Nets -7.5
Lakers/Spurs: 207 total, Spurs -12.5
Pistons/Suns: 204 total, Suns -9.5
Thunder/T'Wolves: 205.5 total, Thunder -8.5
Trailblazers/Bulls: 199.5 total, Bulls -2.5
Knicks/Celtics: 201 total, Celtics -6.5
Clippers/Wizards: 204.5 total, Clippers -2.5
Magic/Hawks: 196.5 total, Hawks –8
Pacers/Raptors: 198 total, Raptors -8.5
Cavs/Pelicans: 199.5 total, Pelicans –2
Hornets/Grizzlies: 192 total, Grizzlies –10
Heat/Jazz: 190.5 total, Jazz -1.5
Projected Team Totals
(Focus on teams 100 or more points)
How to calculate team totals:
Example: Lakers/Spurs 207 total, -12.5 spread
Total/2-Line/2 = Underdog Total
Total – Underdog Total = Favorite Total
Spurs 109.75, Lakers 97.25 (Line is -12.5 / Total is 207)
Spurs 109.75
Thunder 107
Suns 106.75
Celtics 103.75
Clippers 103.5
Raptors 103.25
Hawks 102.25
Nets 101.5
Bulls 101
Grizzlies 101
Wizards 101
Pelicans 100.75
Cavs 98.75
TWolves 98.5
Trailblazers 98.5
Pistons 97.25
Lakers 97.25
Knicks 97.25
Jazz 96
Pacers 94.75
Heat 94.5
Magic 94.25
76ers 94
Hornets 91
Schedule (Days Rest) / (Last Game)
Knowing the schedule of a team is a very underrated measure in daily fantasy basketball. Teams on the road playing back-to-back games are not going to produce as well as a team that is coming off two days rest playing at home. Also, veteran teams playing on the road are most apt to rest their stars (San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis, Cleveland, Miami) which means you want to shy away from guys like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli in those scenarios. Look to play against teams that have to travel all the way east or west and the opponent played the previous game at home. The Rotowire Value Report gives you the number of days rest for each player. For example, Cleveland and Oklahoma City played on Thursday night, so you have to give consideration to fading those players Friday.
Home/Road Differential
Daily fantasy basketball sites salaries consist of an algorithm that is calculated mostly on a percentage of the most recent performance and the entire season as a whole. That means things like home versus road are not factored into the salaries. Extracting value is all about identifying each factor that you can exploit on a nightly basis. Identifying which teams have the best matchups is a way to build your lineups.
Hot Streak
You can identify value with players who have been hot over the past two to three games and their salaries have not been adjusted yet. Look for players who have just been inserted into the starting lineup that are seeing an increase in minutes and production. The Rotowire Value Report gives you the last five games for any player.
And be sure to use the rest of Rotowire's Daily Fantasy Basketball Content:
NBA Daily Games Cheat Sheet
NBA Starting Lineups
Daily Projections
Value Report
Lineup Optimizer
Defense vs. Position
