MLB 2026 betting record: 8-14-1, -7.23 units
Thursday's top MLB betting picks feature four plays, including a pair of pitcher props and a plus-money underdog.
I like the Athletics to win on the road and am expecting two entirely different results from a couple of starting pitchers.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets and Predictions
Zac Gallen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 DraftKings)
Pirates Over 2.5 runs, First Five Innings (+120 DraftKings)
Gallen's days as a top-of-the-rotation arm appear to be long gone. The right-hander has followed up the worst season of his career with a miserable start to 2026.
He's limited damage somewhat (4.45 ERA) by keeping the ball in the yard, but he's not fooling many batters. Gallen is barely generating whiffs and enters today's start vs. the Pirates with the eighth-lowest K% among 125 pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings.
The 30-year-old has struck out 14.2 percent of the batters he's faced this season, an unbelievable drop from the 25-28 percent rates he posted every year from 2019-2024.
Pittsburgh has some swing-and-miss in its game, but it's hard to trust Gallen to clear this number vs. any opponent at the moment. He has reached five strikeouts once in seven starts.
Opposing batters are hitting .298 off him and producing a lot of hard contact. Gallen has pitched well at home, but Chase Field is a great hitter's park and the Pirates have a lineup capable of damage (top 10 in wRC+ and on-base percentage). This is unlikely to be a deep start for Gallen, especially after the Diamondbacks got length from both starters to begin this series. That will further limit his strikeout upside.
A short outing likely means runs, which is why I'm adding the over on the Pirates' team total across the first five innings.
Pittsburgh has scored two runs in its last three contests but averaged 8.4 in the five games before that. The club is seventh in MLB in runs per game and hits right-handed pitching significantly better than southpaws.
Chase Field has been MLB's No. 2 offensive environment over the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant.
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
Athletics Moneyline (+115 Caesars Sportsbook)
Both teams will have a good opportunity to hit based on the forecast and starting pitching matchup (J.T. Ginn and Andrew Painter).
Painter is a fastball-heavy arm and the Athletics are one of the top fastball-hitting teams, closing out tonight's series finale at an excellent hitting venue in Citizens Bank Park.
This is a tough matchup for the rookie. The Athletics have been the better offensive team and they've been strong vs. righties, ranking fourth in average and seventh in wRC+ (the Phillies are 14th and 17th, respectively, in those splits).
Ginn struggled his last time out, but that also came at his home park, a terrible spot for pitchers. On the road, he's posted a 1.65 ERA, a year after stark home/road splits as well. Ginn has given the Athletics a 4.03 ERA across five starts since moving to the rotation and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground. I don't expect him to dominate by any means, but he can certainly outduel Painter and hand over a lead to the Athletics' bullpen, which has admittedly been poor.
At plus money for what's been the better team through the first month and change of the season, I'll take the underdogs in a decent value spot with no clear starting pitching advantage in this game.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts (-112 DraftKings)
King has been great at his pitcher-friendly home park since joining the Padres in 2024. He's posted well-above-average K rates since then, compiling a 3.08 ERA in 53 appearances.
The righty is generally an excellent source of strikeouts, even if his numbers are a little down to start the year. He's topped this line three times (twice in his last three starts) and recorded at least five Ks in all but one outing. There should be confidence in his floor, and he does come with double-digit upside.
St. Louis has been below average at hitting fastballs, per Statcast data, and King should exploit that. According to Baseball Savant, Jacob Misiorowski is the only starter with a higher whiff rate on his four-seamer, which has been King's top putaway pitch.
I expect King to work deep. Provided he does, the strikeouts should be there against a Cardinals team that has a top-10 strikeout rate vs. righties. As a result, I see better value on King to clear 5.5 Ks at -112 than take the over on his 17.5 outs line (the price is into the -140s at several sportsbooks).
MLB Picks Recap
- Zac Gallen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 DraftKings)
- Pirates Over 2.5 runs, First Five innings (+120 DraftKings)
- Athletics Moneyline (+115 Caesars Sportsbook)
- Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts (-112 DraftKings)
