Todd's Takes: Reviewing More of the Moves and ADP

No time for a pithy opening. There are a ton of moves to evaluate. Starting in chronological order, Reviewing the Moves and ADP handled the first set. Let's jump right in with the next group.

TRADES

Mets acquire Brooks Raley

As has been the case for several seasons, Raley excelled with the Rays, so it's somewhat surprising they traded him away. Last season, the lefty fanned 61 in 53.2 innings while compiling six saves and 22 holds. He's clearly not in the closer mix for the Mets, but he strengthens the bridge to Edwin Diaz and serves as a solid option in holds and NL-only leagues.

Braves acquire Joe Jimenez

There's not much to say here other than that Jimenez isn't as bad as some may perceive. In fact, he's pretty good. The biggest fantasy repercussion could be that Gregory Soto's job security with the Tigers is up a tick. For what it's worth, Soto isn't pretty good.

Athletics acquire Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz and Manny Pina

Who would have thought Oakland needed a third team involved to deal for Pina? I know the cool kids are chastising Oakland for this deal, but I like Muller and am willing to give Ruiz a chance. Muller's breaking stuff is more advanced than his fastball, but his new park is very forgiving. Scouts already were on the fence with respect to Ruiz and power. Moving to Oakland could put an end to the debate, but if Ruiz continues to hit flyballs, his average and on-base percentage will suffer. Decent plate skills provide a floor, but Ruiz either needs to maintain teens power or sell out for line drives and groundballs to take advantage of his speed.

Brewers acquire William Contreras

Contreras' batted ball data is certainly impressive, though he fans too much. The main concern is what he does behind the dish, not standing astride it. Defensive metrics aren't kind to Contreras, and the Brewers sport two of the top starters in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, with Aaron Ashby looming. I don't think it's worth downgrading either ace, but restraint should be the call when auction bidding gets aggressive.

Braves acquire Sean Murphy

First off, I disagree with the sentiment Atlanta just swapped All-Star backstops and the upgrade isn't significant. Ignoring the offense for a moment, Murphy's defense for a team competing in the tough NL East is huge, especially in terms of his framing and game calling, as his throwing isn't special. At the plate, Contreras posted the better wRC+, but he was lucky while Murphy was a bit snakebitten, and that's above and beyond park effects. My biggest concern with the deal is Murphy's playing time. Sure, he'll play a ton, but will he eclipse 600 plate appearances like he did last season? That's a tough call, especially with so much uncertainty still surrounding Atlanta's lineup, specifically at shortstop and potentially designated hitter, depending on if the team trusts Marcell Ozuna. On the flip side, a much better venue and a much, much, much, much better lineup helps mitigate the drop in volume.

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

Athletics sign Jace Peterson

Peterson has carved out a niche as a utility guy and injury fill-in. With Oakland, he could cover the strong stride of a platoon, and with his stolen base ability and the new rules, Peterson could tease a 20-steal season. He could just as easily revert to a reserve role. He's averaged 315 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Setting that as the over/under, I'll go over, but not by much.

Yankees sign Tommy Kahnle

For the first time in what seems like forever, the Yankees enter spring training with uncertainty at closer. Well, that's not entirely true, as Aroldis Chapman has been shaky, but at least it's been apparent who will get the job. This year, who knows? Clay Holmes is the clubhouse leader, but he has injury concerns (as does Kahnle). There are many speculative closers ahead of Kahnle, but he still merits such status.

Guardians sign Josh Bell

it's always nice when a perceived perfect signing comes to fruition. There were a few other options provide some thump at first base, but Bell combines the Guardians' patient, contact-driven approach with some pop. Being a switch-hitter helps, as Progressive Field embellishes power from both sides of the plate. The Bell tolls for mixed leagues.

Cubs sign Cody Bellinger

I take pride in my ability to look under the hood and see things not everyone sees. With Bellinger, I got nuthin'. There's evidence his slide started before his shoulder issue, but the injury certainly doesn't help. Recently, he's tinkered and tweaked his swing. One year he can't catch up to heat, the next he's scared of the curveball. Through it all, Bellinger has become a plus defender in center field. It's a cop out, but if I'm playing multiple leagues, I have FOMO and will draft the former NL MVP. It will probably be in a best ball format. I don't think that's pragmatic analysis. The truth is, if I'm drafting one league, I'm avoiding Bellinger. I'm also a certified wuss.

Cubs sign Jameson Taillon

If you were on Taillon before, you should still be on him. Well, figuratively. If you're actually on him, get off. The guy has been through enough over the past few seasons. He's not an ace, but his 177.1 frames last season were SP2/SP3 territory, though Taillon's strikeout rate is low for that level. On the other hand, if you bake in some weeks where the matchup isn't ideal, you still collect around 150 frames, assuming he stays healthy. The park and league switch is a slight upgrade, though his win potential dips. With the quirkiness of wins, that's a trade I make every time. I'll even throw in a couple of FAAB units.

Cardinals sign Willson Contreras

Apropos to nothing, several moons ago I did QA for MLBAM social media. They'd send me the text and I'd proofread it, mostly checking spelling, but also content. The first misspelled name was Contreras'. Well, his first name. Trust me, that wasn't the only time I had to add an 'l'. Anyway, St. Louis is sacrificing some defense for more offense behind the dish. The park downgrade is mitigated by a better lineup and the fact that he now gets to face the Cubs' staff as opposed to the Cardinals'. Wherever you ranked Contreras prior to the deal should be where you rank him now.

Padres sign Xander Bogaerts

Math teachers all over New England are using 280,000,000 and 11 to teach long division. What they should be showing is how much Fenway Park inflates batting average. The power is a wash, but there's around a 15-point difference in batting average from Petco Park. Bogaerts the .300 hitter is now Bogaerts the .285 hitter. That's true on paper, at least, as park indices don't affect everyone in a linear fashion.

Athletics sign Aledmys Diaz

Diaz has flashed stretches of mediocrity over the years, but he usually gets exposed when he plays regularly. Well, Oakland isn't paying him $14.5 million over two years to sit on the bench. The park should hurt his numbers, though a high contact rate offers a batting average floor.

Yankees sign Aaron Judge

Judge is fascinating on so many levels. Ignoring his health history, gravity is just about guaranteed to pull his homer total down, but to where? Is there any credence to the Goldilocks ball, possibly inflating Judge's home run total? Then there's the health consideration. Does one season of avoiding the IL remove Judge's "injury-prone" label? Even with batting average and home run regression, if Judge repeats last season's 157 games and steals around 10 bases, he'll project to be the top overall batter. If he's projected for the 633 plate appearances he garnered in 2021, Judge drops to 1.03. Big whoop, right? Not so fast. Two rankings spots in the eighth round is nothing. However, 1.01 to 1.03 is a drop of about $5 in projected earnings. Once you get into the draft, we're now talking about the difference between rounds, not spots. 

Mets sign Jose Quintana

Take away the pandemic season (in which he threw just 10 innings) and Quintana has sported xFIPs in a very narrow range between 3.72 and 4.03 since 2016. His ERAs have ranged from 2.93 to 6.43. The latter was in only 60 innings, but he had full seasons of 4.50 and 4.68. The point is that Quintana's style lends itself to wide swings of variance. The good news is Citi Field reduces the effect, so from a baseball sense, he made a great decision. For fantasy purposes, he's still risky, just no longer wicked risky.

Red Sox sign Kenley Jansen

The biggest takeaway from Jansen's signing is that Boston plans on competing for the next two seasons. I plan on losing 200 pounds — which is more likely to occur? The judges will accept "why not both?"

Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida

There have been a lot of Shogo Akiyama comparisons, which seem valid. That said, Akiyama came over in the middle of a pandemic, so the surrounding landscape was different. The site outlook does a nice job of thumbprinting Yoshida's fantasy prospects. Tying in the Jansen note, Boston is still short a catcher and either a second baseman or center fielder with Trevor Story (2B/SS) and Enrique Hernandez (2B/OF) providing flexibility to go either way. Could Jean Segura be an option? A bopper at designated hitter would also be nice. So would pizza with no calories.

Mets sign Brandon Nimmo

Nothing changes from a fantasy sense other than Nimmo is a year older. Does returning to the Mets following a season in which he played 151 games absolve him of injury concerns? He's still an OBP and points-league monster, with marginal power and no speed.

Mets sign David Robertson

Add Robertson to the list of middle relievers getting the bag. He was solid for the Cubs and Phillies last season but only tallied 40.1 innings. He'll get holds, but so will a lot of guys. I don't like paying for partial seasons from relievers. Once the price hits $4, I'm out. It's not that he can't earn it, it's that I can get someone for $1 or as a free agent with more durability, meaning I'm not always looking for a replacement.

Nationals sign Trevor Williams

After being a swingman for the past two seasons, Williams is earmarked for the Nationals' rotation. Last season, he recorded a personal best 16.4 percent K-BB mark, but that's still pedestrian and he's moving to a hitter's park with poor run support. Pass.

Mets sign Kodai Senga

Senga ostensibly replaces Chris Bassitt. It's an interesting contrast in that the charm of Bassitt is you know what you'll get, but the allure of Senga is the unknown. As usual, his site outlook does a great job or detailing his range of outcomes. From a drafting perspective, I'll take the chance if I can get him as a streamer. For the record, I prefer my SP1-SP3 to be active every week. I'd rather have my SP4 active, but I'll reserve him for difficult matchups. I'll more liberally bench my SP5. The SP6 and SP7 spots are generally fungible. If I can get Senga as my SP5, I'll do it.

Blue Jays sign Chris Bassitt

Repeat after me: park factors don't affect everyone linearly. That said, other than 29.2 innings in his inaugural season with the White Sox, Bassitt has toiled in pitching-friendly venues. Playing the park factor game, a 3.67 ERA with the Mets translates to a 3.77 mark with Toronto. Sure, this will influence his earnings and associated ranking, but you shouldn't be drafting a 3.77 ERA. You should be drafting reliability and durability, which remains the same regardless of .10 points of ERA.

Giants sign Sean Manaea

Market cost matters, but color me intrigued. The Giants (or maybe the confidence developed from pitching in Oracle Park) have been an elixir for starting pitchers. Manaea's skills weren't that much different than normal last season, and his ERA estimators sync up with prior campaigns. Yielding more homers is a tangible issue, but a 67.5 percent left on base mark did Manaea no favors. Combine organic regression with a pitcher's park and more confidence and you have an SP4/SP5 with SP3 upside.

Twins sign Christian Vazquez

Vazquez's fantasy prognosis is the same as it was the past few seasons with Boston. He'll play three out of four games with a decent batting average and occasional pop. His defense is above-average and will help the Twins' younger pitchers. The interesting note is that Vazquez is usually around the 12th or 13th catcher off the board. This season, with similar expectations, he could be 18th or 19th. This speaks towards the influx of talent behind the plate, though overall catcher still lags the other spots, and the back end remains terrible.

Giants sign Ross Stripling

If everyone is healthy, Stripling could return to his swingman role. However, between Alex Wood, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani, someone is likely to be hurt, opening a rotation spot for Stripling. I'll gladly pay for the solid skills in a great pitching venue and let the rest flesh itself out.

Guardians sign Mike Zunino

Assuming Zunino recovers from thoracic outlet surgery (not a foregone conclusion), I like this move a lot more for Cleveland than for Zunino's fantasy value. His defensive presence will be a boon for the young pitchers. He could hit 20 homers and fan 480 times and still be an asset. A .040 batting average with 20 homers, on the other hand, isn't fantasy fodder.

Giants sign Carlos Correa

So much for J.D. Davis SZN as Brandon Crawford will slide to the left, stopping when he's about six feet away from the third base bag. Wilmer Flores could also lose playing time. For the final time, at least in this missive, park factors don't always hold true, but Correa could lose as much as $5 of projected earnings in Oracle Park. That said, sometimes the market overreacts, availing a buying opportunity.

Wow, that gets us up to date, at least through this writing. As I did with the first installment, I'd like to end with a few words on...

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION

I was in the NFBC before there was an NFBC (or something like that). Trust me, I am full of admiration for what Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich have done. That doesn't mean I can't share a few warnings about the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Average Draft Position.

I don't blame Greg and Tom for publicizing the bejabbers out of their ADP. I do however, cringe when I hear it discussed, or see articles comparing one's own rankings to the NFBC ADP or evaluating picks in a draft using it.

The NFBC ADP is its own economy, best applicable to the NFBC format. Furthermore, the most popular ADP is for their Draft Championship, a 15-team, 50-roster-spot draft-and-hold format. There are strategies and philosophies intrinsic to that format which may not transcend other setups.

For example, I am currently drafting in a 15-team league with moves allowed on Monday and Friday, for both hitters and pitchers. This significantly changes the dynamics, especially with regards to pitching. With twice-weekly moves, it's easier to avoid poor matchups while backfilling with solid relievers. As such, starting pitching traditionally isn't drafted as aggressively as the NFBC. Corbin Burnes' ADP is around 14, but he was the 24th player taken in this league. Gerrit Cole's ADP is around 17, but he was picked 26th.

A newcomer to the league sent me an email, suggesting no one knows what they're doing because, "pitching goes much sooner in the NFBC." Yeah, it does. For a reason.

I love how the NFBC can be filtered and viewed as a draft board. I am thrilled they're able to market it and grow the various leagues. Just be careful how you use it, at least in an absolute sense. The best approach isn't comparing Burnes' and Cole's ADP to rankings, or to another draft. It's looking at the relative ranking within each positional or statistical pool. I don't care about Zac Gallen's ADP, but I do care where he is chosen relative to other starters.