Tigers Team Preview: The Window is Closing

The Tigers were heavy favorites to win the AL Central crown again in 2014, but few projected their margin of victory in the division race to be as narrow as it was, as the Royals were held off with a mere one-game lead after 162 were played. Narrow margin aside, the division title marked the fourth consecutive season that the Tigers finished atop the Central, but the 2014 club had a noticeable limp entering the postseason, and was promptly swept by the Orioles in the American League Division Series.

General manager Dave Dombrowski has continued to take an aggressive approach while trying to bring a World Series to Detroit during the team's current window. In terms of position players, only the Yankees and Phillies had a higher average age than the Tigers in 2014. While many of those trades have worked in the Tigers' favor over the years, Dombrowski's willingness to move young talent from the pipeline in exchange for pieces to push the team closer to October glory will eventually catch up to the organization.

The long-term commitments include $262 million owed to a soon-to-be 32-year-old Miguel Cabrera through 2023 (with vesting options for two additional years), $140 million to Justin Verlander (through 2019), $68 million to Victor Martinez through 2018, and a front-loaded $46 million to Ian Kinsler (through 2017). More than $500 million committed to four players on the wrong side of 30, and the aforementioned depleted farm system point to a title window that may close quickly in the AL Central. The departure of Max Scherzer to the Nationals via free agency and the Tigers' decision to avoid going after James Shields suggests that payroll flexibility has become an issue.

The Tigers may still be the favorite to win the division in 2015, but the White Sox's offseason makeover adds another immediate threat, while the Twins' rising crop of young talent could put Minnesota back in contention in the not-so-distant future.

Offseason Moves (listed in order of significance)

Re-signed DH/1B Victor Martinez to a four-year, $68 million contract.

Martinez defied Father Time in 2014, posting a career-best campaign in his age-35 season. The veteran designated hitter set career highs in numerous categories, including home runs (32), hits (188), batting average (.335), on-base percentage (.409), slugging percentage (.565), and OPS (.974). His plate discipline was also the best of his career, as Martinez posted a 1.67 BB/K ratio and 93 percent contact rate. While his .230 ISO was well above his career average of .169, Martinez's .320 BABIP was right in line with his career norm. Eligible at just DH to begin the 2014 season, Martinez will have first base eligibility in many formats after making 35 appearances at the position. Unfortunately, he only had two appearances at catcher and isn't expected to play much behind the plate going forward. A regression in the power department wouldn't be a surprise, but Martinez will post strong enough numbers across the board to warrant a lofty draft slot, although he'll carry added risk following surgery in early February to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. His status for Opening Day could be in question depending on the pace of his recovery.

Acquired OF Yoenis Cespedes, RHP Alex Wilson, and LHP Gabe Speier from Boston for RHP Rick Porcello.

Cespedes split the 2014 season between Oakland and Boston, playing his final 51 games for the Red Sox. His final numbers indicate what was expected of him -- a middle of the order bat who doesn't get on base at a great clip. He stayed healthy and had his first 100-RBI season and played 152 games. Defensively, he struggled in Boston while attempting to adjust to playing in front of the Green Monster. With only one year remaining on his contract, Cespedes was traded to the Tigers in December. He'll take over as the starting left fielder in Detroit, with the potential to sustain his improved RBI count in the heart of a strong Tigers lineup. The addition of Cespedes should be a significant upgrade over Torii Hunter in the everyday lineup, while J.D. Martinez will shift from left to right field to fill Hunter's defensive spot.

Acquired RHP Alfredo Simon from the Reds for RHP Jonathan Crawford and SS Eugenio Suarez.

Simon turned what was supposed to be one spot start in April into a full 32-start season, first filling in for the injured Mat Latos and then hanging on through Latos' setbacks, and later Tony Cingrani's injury permanently gave him the rotation spot. Don't look for a repeat of 2014 this upcoming season -- not only did Simon struggle after the All-Star break (4.52 ERA), but his 196.1 innings were more than he threw in the previous two years combined by a wide margin. He'll also move back to the tougher AL after his trade to Detroit, where he figures to slot in at the back of the rotation.

Acquired RHP Shane Greene in three-team trade with Yankees and Diamondbacks while giving up 2B Domingo Leyba and LHP Robbie Ray.

Greene wasn't on the radar this time last year and it's hardly our fault as he wasn't anything close to a prospect from either a scouting or numbers standpoint. He put up unimpressive numbers as someone who was too old or at the exact right age for his level. His start to 2014 was no different as he had a 4.61 ERA in Triple-A prior to his callup. The rash of injuries that ravaged the Yankees' rotation forced Greene into the role in early July and he hit the ground running with a 3.09 ERA through his first 55 innings with 54 strikeouts and a 3.2 K/BB ratio. A couple of six-run shellackings book-ended his September and pushed his final mark up to 3.78, but even while struggling he still fanned 27 in 23 innings. The strikeouts were the biggest surprise in his breakout and they give him some staying power going forward. If he can refine his changeup and cut into his 100-point platoon split, Greene can be a steady all-formats option. Moving into spacious Comerica Park for half of his starts this season should go a long way toward helping him put the pieces together.

Acquired OF Anthony Gose from Toronto for 2B Devon Travis.

Gose has earned big league paycheck in parts of three seasons because of his speed and defense, but he has been unable to solve big-league pitching. In 616 career plate appearances, he's struck out at a 27.6% clip. For a player with minimal pop (career .332 SLG), it's a less than ideal approach, but he walked at a career-high 9.1% rate last season. Gose's path to playing time in Detroit may be clear following the mid-summer trade of Austin Jackson and the departure of Torii Hunter in free agency. If the Tigers are content to benefit from his defense and bury him in the bottom third of their lineup, Gose may prove to be a great source of cheap steals in 2015. With a .329 OBP against right-handed pitching last season, Gose could end up on the larger side of a platoon in center field with Rajai Davis while hitting near the bottom of the potent Detroit batting order.

Signed LHP Tom Gorzelanny.

Injuries limited Gorzelanny to just 23 appearances last season, but he gave up just one home run and two earned runs in those outings. After two effective years for the Brewers, he became a free agent this offseason. Signed by the Tigers as a free agent in January, Gorzelanny will have an opportunity to compete for a high leverage role during spring training. If all goes well, he could prove to be an upgrade over Phil Coke, as Gorzelanny has a career 2.88 ERA over 171.2 innings with a .216 batting average against as a reliever.

Signed RHP Joel Hanrahan to a minor league deal.

The elbow injury that ended Hanrahan's 2013 campaign kept him on the sideline for the entirety of 2014 as well. Originally expected to return from Tommy John surgery in mid-2014, Hanrahan was a free agent until he was finally scooped up by the Tigers in early May. The Tigers had hoped to bring Hanrahan along slowly, progressing him through the minors until he was ready to face major-league hitters. Hanrahan threw multiple bullpen sessions, and his fastball reportedly reached 92-93 mph in some workouts, but he eventually suffered a setback and was shut down for the remainder of the season in late July. Despite the struggles to return to the mound last year, the veteran reliever is expected to be ready for spring training, and the Tigers were confident enough to hand him a $1 million contract with incentives to reach $2.5 million if he makes the active roster. Even if Hanrahan does prove to be healthy for the first time in two years, he still has re-establish his effectiveness. If all goes well, Hanrahan will provide the Tigers with late-inning depth in front of setup man Joakim Soria and closer Joe Nathan.

Claimed RHP Josh Zeid off of waivers from the Astros.

Offseason Lasik surgery helped Zeid -- who is astigmatic -- feel more comfortable on the mound, but the right-hander still struggled to the tune of a 6.97 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 23 relief appearances for the Astros. The cause of his struggles may have been due to a condition called sesamoiditis, which caused pain and inflammation at the bottom of his feet and subsequently affected his pitching mechanics. The right-hander actually had two procedures done to correct the issue; season-ending surgery on his right foot in late July and the same treatment on his left foot in October. Zeid is expected to be ready for spring training, however, during which he'll compete for a spot in the Tigers' Opening Day bullpen.

Projected Lineup (v. RHP / v. LHP)

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B / Rajai Davis, CF
2. Nick Castellanos, 3B / Ian Kinsler, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Yoenis Cespedes, LF
6. J.D. Martinez, RF
7. Alex Avila, C / Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Jose Iglesias, SS / James McCann, C
9. Anthony Gose, CF / Jose Iglesias, SS

When healthy, the Tigers still boast one of the stronger lineups in the American League. It's a predominantly right-handed hitting group, but that shouldn't prove to be an overwhelming shortcoming. There is some uncertainty regarding the plan with the No. 2 spot in the order to begin the year, but Castellanos is believed to be the favorite to handle the role against right-handed starters. When Davis slots in as the leadoff man against left-handed pitching, Ian Kinsler will simply move down a spot.

Projected Rotation

1. David Price
2. Anibal Sanchez
3. Justin Verlander
4. Alfredo Simon
5. Shane Greene

With the loss of Max Scherzer in free agency, the Tigers need several things to go right with their rotation. The health of Sanchez is increasingly important, as the lack of depth remains a problem at the higher levels of the minor leagues. A rebound from Verlander would also go a very long way toward solidifying this unit, as he struggled with his mechanics last year after having offseason core muscle repair surgery. Simon and Greene will enter the year with guaranteed spots, while the latter seemingly has more upside and growth potential than the former at this stage of their respective careers.

Closer:Joe Nathan - Nathan was the Tigers' prized free agent acquisition prior to the 2014 season. After posting a miniscule 1.39 ERA with 43 saves in his final season for the Rangers, Nathan was expected to anchor the Tigers' bullpen. Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned, as Nathan struggled out of the gates in 2014. Prior to the All-Star break, Nathan posted a 5.61 ERA and 1.51 WHIP while blowing five of 24 save chances. He righted the ship a bit in the second half of the season (16-of-18 on save chances, 3.70 ERA), but Nathan still finished with some of the worst numbers of his career. His fastball, which hovered around 94 mph back in 2012, dipped to 91 mph and the dominate slider he showcased in Texas was ineffective last season. As would be expected, the drop-off in his two most effective pitches led to a lower strikeout rate (8.38 K/9), and Nathan also battled control issues (4.50 BB/9) for much of the season. Despite the down campaign, Nathan is expected to once again open the season as Detroit's closer. The 40-year-old righty will have to prove he can bounce back, otherwise Detroit may hand over the ninth-inning duties to Joakim Soria or an option outside of the organization.

Key Bullpen Members:Joakim Soria, Al Alburquerque, Tom Gorzelanny, and Bruce Rondon.

The bullpen has plenty of questions yet again, but a healthy Soria may go a long way toward helping solve the late-inning issues that have become a signature of the Tigers in recent seasons. Gorzelanny may prove to be a sneaky addition to the bullpen as a free agent pickup, while the Tigers could also benefit from Rondon and Joel Hanrahan returning from Tommy John surgery.

Notes of Import, Fantasy and Otherwise:

Can Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez stay healthy?

Cabrera is recovering from surgery to stabilize the navicular bone in his right ankle. He played through pain throughout the second half of last season, but there are questions as to whether he'll be healed enough to play on Opening Day. Once the Tigers begin playing their Grapefruit League schedule, it should become easier to get a feel for whether he's in danger of missing significant time. Cabrera is expected to be limited when full-squad workouts begin for position players in February.

Martinez had surgery in early February to repair a torn meniscus, and the initial timetable for his return was placed at four-to-six weeks. Barring setbacks, he should be ready to serve as the DH on Opening Day, but the Tigers' previous plans of using Martinez as a fallback option at first base in the absence of Cabrera, or putting him behind the plate during early-season Interleague series in National League parks are on hold.

Who settles into the second spot in the lineup?

Last season, the Tigers' No. 2 hitter combined for a .272/.306/.403 line. That spot was predominantly held by Torii Hunter, who returned to Minnesota via free agency this winter. Even with the low OBP, 103 runs were scored by that spot in the Tigers' lineup, which hints at the potential surge in value of a player like Castellanos if manager Brad Ausmus elects to give the second-year third baseman the opportunity. Of course, the value of hitting second in the Tigers' lineup could take a slight hit depending on the health of Cabrera, V-Mart, and the team's other run-producing bats in the heart of the order.

Will Justin Verlander return to his pre-2013 form?

Verlander was a perennial Cy Young candidate from 2009-2012, but he took a big step back in 2013 before having offseason core muscle repair surgery. The recovery limited his ability to throw leading up to the 2014 season, and he eventually had to adjust his mechanics as a result of the impact of his procedure. This winter, he's added 20 pounds of muscle and progressed through a regular offseason workout routine, something he was unable to do a year ago. While a return to the elite levels he once sustained seems unlikely, Verlander could push back toward the low-3.00 range with his ERA and continue to provide plenty of strikeouts if he's able to recover his mechanics.

Strengths

When healthy, an offense that can put plenty of runs on the board, and three starting pitchers capable of dominating on any particular day.

Weaknesses

There is limited depth here at several positions, the roster is aging, the farm system as a whole lacks high-end prospects thanks to the multitude of trades made in recent years, and the bullpen could still be problematic.

Rising:J.D. Martinez - Martinez was easily one of the biggest fantasy surprises of 2014. After being released by the Astros during spring training, Martinez was quickly signed to a minor league contract by the Tigers, who assigned him to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season. He was able to force the Tigers' hand after just 17 games with the Mud Hens and his success carried over to the majors, as Martinez quickly took over as Detroit's everyday left fielder. While it's hard to argue with the strong numbers he posted, Martinez's production was buoyed by an unsustainable .397 BABIP. He also struggled with his plate discipline, posting a 71 percent contact rate and 0.24 BB/K ratio. The odds are stacked against Martinez repeating his magical 2014 campaign, but he is a former top prospect with solid power, and it certainly won't hurt his cause hitting behind superstars Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Owners will want to make sure they don't pay for his 2014 production, but there's still plenty of value to be had here if the price tag is right.

Declining:Justin Verlander - See above.

Sleeper:Nick Castellanos - As the Tigers' top positional prospect heading into the 2014 season, many pundits had high hopes for Castellanos. On the surface, Castellanos had a mediocre first full season in the majors, hitting .259/.306/.394 with 11 home runs, 66 RBI and 54 runs in 533 at-bats while serving as the Tigers' full-time third baseman. Similar to his results in the minors, Castellanos had trouble with his plate discipline, finishing with 24.2% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He also struggled defensively, ranking last in the majors at UZR for third basemen. The defensive struggles can partially be chalked up to the Tigers juggling Castellanos between the outfield and third base in 2013. With a full-year of playing third base at the major league level under his belt, Castellanos should show improvement on defense. And some of the advanced metrics behind Castellanos' performance at the plate during his rookie campaign hint at further growth to come. Castellanos did a great job limiting infield flyballs (2.1% IFFB) and he ranked second among qualified hitters with a 28.5% line-drive rate. The Tigers appear to be committed to Castellanos as the team's third baseman of the present and future, so he will have a long leash to work through the issues that arose throughout his rookie campaign. The 23-year-old showed consistent improvements in both plate discipline and power as he made his way through the minors, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see similar improvements as he becomes acclimated to the majors.

Supersleeper:Tyler Collins - Collins split time between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit in 2014, marking his first taste of pitching at either level. He finished his first full season at the Triple-A level hitting .263/.335/.423 with 18 homers, 12 steals, 62 RBI and 63 runs in 468 at-bats. The 24-year-old outfielder actually made the Tigers' Opening Day roster last season, but he was sent down after limited action through the first two weeks of the season and wasn't recalled until rosters expanded in September. Collins finished his time in Detroit hitting .250/.280/.375 with one homer and four RBI in 24 at-bats. Collins is a left-handed swinging outfielder who doesn't excel at any one particular facet of the game - he possesses modest pop at the plate with decent speed and solid defense at a corner outfield position. He projects long term as a bench option, a role that Detroit currently has vacant, but his path to a more prominent role in 2015 became obstructed with the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes via trade in December.

Top Prospects

Derek Hill, OF - The Tigers selected Hill with their first-round pick of the 2014 first-year player draft. Immediately after being selected, Hill was considered one of the Tigers' best prospects. The 19-year-old outfielder possesses plus-plus speed, which allows him to be a disruptive force on the basepaths. He's also considered a premium defender and will likely patrol center field once he reaches the majors. At the plate, Hill has demonstrated elevated discipline for a player of his age, but his power potential appears to be limited to the double-digit range if he doesn't more bulk than expected. Even with low-to-modest power production, Hill's stellar speed and defense should one day earn him a regular spot in a major league lineup. He'll need to work his way through the minors over the next few years, but Hill will eventually be a regular presence in Detroit's outfield if he develops as projected.

Steven Moya, OF - The Tigers have been enamored by Moya's power potential since signing the international free agent as a teenager back in 2008. The big-bodied (6-6, 230) outfielder finally fulfilled that potential last season, hitting .276 with 25 homers and 105 RBI en route to Eastern League MVP honors. While the power is clearly legit, Moya still struggles with his plate discipline. His swing is often long and loopy, which resulted in 161 strikeouts in 515 at-bats, and he also doesn't draw many walks (23). On the defensive side of the ball, Moya is considered a decent corner outfield option, although he may be better suited for first base long-term. The Tigers are in need of a left-handed bat to platoon with Rajai Davis, and the team intends to give Moya a legit look for the gig, but he's probably a notch behind Tyler Collins in the position battle heading into spring training. With no Triple-A experience yet, Moya is probably best served spending the majority of the year in Toledo refining his approach at the plate, but he'll definitely be on the Tigers' radar if the need arises.

Kevin Ziomek, P - While he has been overshadowed at times by fellow prospects Jonathon Crawford and Austin Kubitza, Ziomek was arguably the best pitcher the Tigers had in the lower levels of the minors last season. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound lefty went 10-6 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 152:53 K:BB ratio in 123 innings for Low-A West Michigan in 2014. A 2013 second-round pick, Ziomek has a fastball in just the low-90s, but his slider is bordering on elite and he keeps hitters off-balance with a show-me curveball and a decent changeup. The 23-year-old southpaw will likely begin the season at High-A Lakeland, but he could move up the ladder quickly with another solid showing. If he continues to progress, Ziomek could make a push for a spot in the Tigers' rotation as soon as 2016.