This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
My PrizePicks plays have been off to a hot start, as I've hit on 10 of my first 13 recommendations. We don't expect to hit at that rate all season, but baseball statistics always tend to be more predictable than any other sport. The reason for that is that we have these absurdly massive sample sizes and individual splits that help us understand each player's strengths and weaknesses. That's one of my favorite aspects of baseball, so let's keep that momentum rolling into this Tuesday's slate!
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Shota Imanaga, CHC vs. PHI: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
You know that saying about the immovable object vs. an unstoppable force? This is the exact opposite, because Imanaga is an unstoppable force, while this Phillies offense is very movable. While the Phillies have one of the best lineups on the surface, they rank 25th in OBP, 28th in runs scored, 24th in wOBA and 26th in OPS. They've been even worse over the last two weeks, and it's unlikely they'll figure it out in Wrigley Field against Imanaga.
Let's talk about the left-hander because Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers through the opening month. Imanaga has a 2.45 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and K/9 rate through four starts this season. That's the stud we've seen throughout his Chicago tenure, tallying a 3.28 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 rate at home. We also saw Imanaga face the Phillies just last week, where he struck out 11 batters across six sensational innings.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. ATH: More Than 17.5 Outs
Castillo isn't quite as dominant as he was in the past, but this veteran is always a dangerous option in Seattle. That ballpark has been one of the best pitchers' parks over the last decade, with Castillo compiling a 3.05 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.4 K.9 rate there over the last three seasons. Most importantly, he's completed at least 18 outs in 16 of his last 23 home starts.
We've also seen Castillo clobber the A's over recent years, allowing two runs or fewer in seven straight starts against them while surpassing 18 outs in all but one of those. That's quite the run, and it's less surprising since the A's are projected to score fewer than four runs in this spacious Seattle ballpark. Not to mention, they rank 22nd in OPS, K rate and wOBA so far this year.
Patrick Corbin/Jack Kochanowicz, LAA vs. TEX: Less Than 0.5 First Inning Runs Allowed
This is not a prop we recommend too often, but this should be a high-scoring matchup. While neither of these lineups is too scary, we have two of the worst pitchers taking the mound. Let's start with Corbin, who's collected a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since 2020. Kochanowicz hasn't been quite that bad for so long, but his 6.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP last season were some of the worst in baseball.
Many of those duds for Kochanowicz were against Texas, as he surrendered a 12.91 ERA and 2.51 WHIP in four starts against them last year. This is also an Angels team that ranks fifth in runs scored and seventh in wOBA. It'll be challenging for Corbin to get through righties like Mike Trout, Zach Neto and Jo Adell, so we expect to see some massive RBI opportunities for both teams in their first chance at the plate.
Zach Neto, LAA vs. TEX: More Than 7.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Corbin)
Let's parlay that last pick with another prop that correlates directly with that result. We already discussed just how poor Corbin has been over recent years, so we have to pick some Angels against him. It was difficult to pick between Trout, Adell and Neto for this spot, but Neto looks like the best option of the bunch.
He's surpassed this total in eight of his last 10 outings and has cracked in 15 of 24 games this season. That's an encouraging stat in a favorable matchup like this, especially since Neto has a .369 OBP and .914 OPS against lefties over the last three years. Neto has some brilliant BvP numbers against Corbin, compiling a .500 OBP and 1.409 OPS in 11 at-bats against him.
What plays are the RotoWire baseball experts dialing in on? Check out our free MLB betting picks for all of today's top plays!
