Oak's Corner: Time to Take a Hard Look at Your Teams

With that crazy FAAB weekend behind us and most MLB teams nearing the 50 games played mark, I consider this an important time to do a full reassessment of our fantasy squads. I usually do this three times a year, once right about now, again during the All Star Break and finally with about 50 games left in the season. In this reassessment, I'm not only taking a detailed look at my standings but also at the stats so far of my players. For the first two months of the season, I tend to slot in the guys I drafted (at least the early and mid-range ones) with the theory that players will come around and it's still early. However, with two months of stats behind us, it's time to be real with struggling players and possibly consider benching them at times. It's also time to determine whether guys you didn't anticipate dropping might in fact be drops. I think May 1 is too early to make this determination on players you liked when you drafted them, but I also think July 1 is too late, so this is the perfect time to figure out what you want to do with mid-rounds guys like Miguel Cabrera, Yu Darvish and Eduardo Rodriguez.

In this fresh evaluation, I'm also taking a hard look at my overall league standings and also the standings within each category. In leagues in which I'm doing well and/or winning, I put a focus on how real my lead or good start is by looking at potential downside to see if I have built a real lead or one that could lose 10 points on a bad weekend series. The most important work comes in leagues in which I'm trailing or, especially, getting beat badly.

We all have leagues where our team starts slowly, whether it be bad picks, poor prep work or maybe a visit from the bad injury luck gods. For these leagues, I take a hard look at each category to figure out (and write down) what my near-term upside is. How many points can I realistically gain with some solid hitting and pitching, and I set that as my goal for the next few weeks. If I am in a 15-team league and sitting at 70 points and 45 points behind the leader, it can be daunting and easy to feel like it's impossible to make up ground. If you can find a path to 85 or 90 points with a good month, the hill suddenly isn't that steep, and then when you reach that level, you can then reassess and decide what your next step is. I feel it becomes a lot easier to stomach the bad days when you know you are just trying to make up chunks right now rather than trying to get to first place on July 1st. And we can't forget, even though it feels like the season has been here a while, it's only May, and it only matters where you end up in September. So take a realistic look this weekend at your team and standings; you'll be surprised how much you learn, and it will help you make effective decisions as we head into the dog days of the season.  

The Week That Was

I mentioned Eduardo Rodriguez above as a mid-round guy who has been very frustrating, with a 5.43 ERA and 1.46 Whip, but I won't be dropping him and will be looking to buy in trade leagues. E-Rod had his best season for the Sox in 2018, posting a 3.82 ERA in 129.2 innings and pushing his strikeout rate over 10.0 K/9 for the first time in his major league career. Hidden under the ugly 5.43 ERA are fairly identical stats to last year's, as he has essentially the same strikeout, walk and home runs rates, and his hard hit rate is still great at 27 percent. Further, his swinging strike rate has actually pushed nicely higher from 11.1 percent to 13 percent. He's getting killed by his BABIP of .355 (which I think will come down with his avoidance of hard contact) and his strand rate of 65.1 percent. Rodriguez isn't going to be an ace, but I love getting him at a discount right now from a frustrated owner, and think a nice run of starts is on its way.

I was out on Josh Bell heading into 2018, as I didn't buy the 26 homers in 2017, and while that call looked good last year, I was out again this year, and that is looking like an epic miss. Bell homered again on Thursday and now has 16 homers on the year in only 201 plate appearances after hitting a total of 12 in 2018. My issue with Bell after 2017 was that his hard hit and fly ball rates just did not support his big home run total, but he has completely changed his game so far in 2019. His hard hit rate, which previously topped out at 33.8 percent, now sits at 52.3 percent, and he's also carrying a career high 36.4 percent fly ball rate. The hard hit rate represents a huge breakout, as he had been very consistent between 32 and 34 percent during his three years in the Majors prior to 2019.

As he has opened up his swing to hit for more power, he has struck out more, but at 21.9 percent, that's still manageable for the amount of power he's showing. His Statcast numbers also support the breakout, as he's currently second in MLB in average exit velocity at 96 mph, trailing only Joey Gallo. He also ranks fifth in baseball in barrels per plate appearance at 12.8 percent and is also second with 78 balls hit at more than 95 mph. As Bell has hit for more power, his walks have dropped a bit, as he's attacking more than ever, swinging at a career high 47.4 percent of pitches seen. While it's hard to believe Bell has taken this big a step, all of the numbers show a guy who is in full breakout mode. I may not take him in the second round, like someone did in one of the NFBC Second Chance Leagues drafted last night, but I'm not looking to sell high on him either.

FAAB Feelings

Luis Urias. With the news right before the season that Fernando Tatis Jr. would be starting the season with the Padres, Urias was sent to start the season in Triple-A. He did come back up for 11 games due to some team injuries in early April and proceeded to strike out a lot and was sent back down. Well, now Urias is mashing in Triple-A (I know, a very common theme this year) to the tune of a .350 batting average with 12 homers in 30 games. Urias is only 21, so maybe he's growing into some power, but it's definitely a surprise as he only had 11 homers in the last two seasons over 238 games. While the newfound power is clearly nice, if you buy Urias, I think you're doing so for the batting average, as he hit .296 over those 238 games in 2017 and 2018, and also hoping he hits in a spot in the order where he's able to score a bunch of runs. With the Tatis promotion to start the season, it's clear the Padres are looking to be competitive now with no issues going young, and while they aren't likely to hang with the Dodgers, they should be in the National League Wild Card mix all year.

The most important aspect to a potential Urias call-up is the utter abysmal season Ian Kinsler is putting together so far; he's hitting .184 with an impossibly low .240 OBP that puts him in the bottom seven in baseball among players with at least 100 plate appearances. The Padres did sign Kinsler for two years, but the money wasn't huge, and one has to imagine they will make the move to Urias before too long, and once they do, it's likely for good. He's still rostered in many NFBC 15-team leagues at a 70 percent ownership rate, but I'd definitely look to add him if he's available in your league, and if you have an available spot in 12-teamers, he's readily available there, owned at only 18 percent in the NFBC 12-teamers. I think he'll be a nice player for your middle infield spot in the second half.

Cavan Biggio. News broke on Thursday afternoon that the Blue Jays are calling up Biggio, son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, for Friday's game, and suddenly we have another prospect to bid on this week to supplement all the big names last week. The 24-year-old Biggio was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 draft, and after struggling in 2017, he had a breakout year in Double-A in 2018. He did only hit .252, but for pure fantasy goodness, he hit 26 homers to go with 20 stolen bases while driving in 99 runs in only 132 games. He did strike out a bit much at 26.3 percent, but so far this year he has remedied that with a 16.7 strikeout rate and has actually walked more than he has struck out so far in his 168 plate appearances.

The speed and power is there again in 2019, as he has six homers and five steals, but the diminished strikeouts have helped boost his batting average to .306. Biggio can play all over the field, so he should be able to find at-bats as the Jays' lineup is pretty ugly right now, but my guess would be he plays some at second base and in left field, although the Jays are calling up Lourdes Gurriel, too, and he's likely to get starts at second base also. If Biggio hits, he is going to play, as the Jays start to look toward 2020, and he will garner some strong bids with his power/speed upside.

Kevin Cron. As I was finishing up the column, news come out that Cron was also likely getting called up on Friday. It's unclear for how long and where his playing time comes from in Arizona, and one local media member tweeted that Cron would be a pinch hitter and play a little bit at first base. It seems odd they would call him up not to play, and while they do have Christian Walker at first base who started well, he's only hitting .197 with one homer in May. It has to be noted that Cron does play his Triple-A home games in Reno, and as someone who spent a summer working for a minor league team in Reno, I can promise the ball flies there. However, even taking that into account, his numbers so far this season are nothing short of insane with 21 homers and 62 RBI in only 44 games, and yes, you read that correctly.

Cron had shown some pop in the minors with three different seasons of more than 25 homers, but his prospect status wasn't high coming into this season, and he wasn't even in the top 30 in the Diamondbacks system in this year's Baseball American Prospect Handbook. During this power breakout, he has also managed to impressively cut his strikeout rate to 16.6 percent. I'm hoping to get more of a feel on Cron's role with the team before bids are due on Sunday, but I will admit that the Diamondbacks four-game series next week at Coors is very much staring me in the face. Power like this isn't easy to find on the waiver wire (well, unless you bought Austin Riley...wow!), and if it looks like he's going to play, I will have to put some medium bids in to try and ride the wave, as power hitters can be very streaky, and he's clearly on one right now.

A Closer Look

With Wade Davis going on the 10-Day Injured List on Wednesday, the Rockies closer job is open for a bit, and although a Rockies beat writer called the oblique strain "not severe," with no timetable given by the team, I would imagine it will at least keep him out for a few weeks. Manager Bud Black was nice enough to come out and actually say that Scott Oberg is going to be the primary closer while Davis is on the shelf. Oberg has an excellent ERA so far at 1.77 in 20.1 innings, but he has a lot in his profile with which to be concerned.

His strikeout has taken a significant tumble to 5.75 K/9, while his walks have jumped to 4.8 BB/9. Granted, this is all over only 20.1 innings, but his swinging strike rate has dropped to 9.9 percent from 13.2 percent in 2018, while his velocity has dropped from 95.3 mph to 94 mph. He has been saved by a .196 BABIP and 89.6 percent strand rate to make his ERA look a whole lot prettier than his 4.70 FIP. If you need saves, you need to take a bit of a leap with Oberg and hope he can stave off the regression police for two to three weeks while Davis is out, but these struggling stats plus a long 10-day homestand at Coors Field will make my bids tepid at best.

Series of the Weekend

Red Sox at Astros. After a brutal start to the season that began with a 3-8 road trip, the Red Sox have found their way and are now four games over .500, thanks to a 14-6 record so far in May. After winning three of four in Toronto this week, they make the trip to Houston to face the dominating Astros who already have a seven-game lead in the American League West. This series features a lot of big name stars and will be a good test for the Red Sox to see if they can keep the momentum going.

The Red Sox hot streak coincided with the call-up of Michael Chavis who has been a big spark to their offense. Chavis took over for the struggling (and injured) pair of Eduardo Nunez and Dustin Pedroia, and is actually already second on the team in homers with 10 big flies despite playing only 29 games. Chavis missed half the season last year due to a PED suspension that he still disputes, but he has picked right up where he left off in 2017 when he homered 31 times across Single and Double A. Chavis has stuck out a good amount with a 26 percent strikeout rate, but he has also walked at a nice 12.2 percent clip, and his Statcast data looks nice, also. Chavis has 15 barrels already this year and his barrel/plate appearance percentage of 12.2 percent places him in the top 10 in all of baseball.

For all the back and forth we all did this offseason about which pitcher to draft in the second or third round and then watching the issues many of those aces have had this year, the veteran of the group, Justin Verlander, has been just awesome. He faces the Red Sox on Sunday and brings with him a sparkling 2.24 ERA to go with eight wins in 11 starts. Even though the strikeout rate is down a touch this year to 1.11 K/9, the career high 15.6 percent swinging strike rate is very nice and makes me not worried about the strikeout drop.

A closer look does reveal a few issues of concern, as his hard hit rate currently sits at 42.3 percent, which would be easily the highest of his career. When you combined that with the 45.4 percent fly ball rate, the homers, which have often been as issue for Verlander in the past, are going to hurt him even more this year. And while his FIP is still good at 3.56, the absurd .158 BABIP (career .282) and 97 (!!) percent strand rate (career 74.8 percent) have done a lot of work to make his ERA look better than it should be. Verlander is still great, no doubt, and I wouldn't be aggressively looking to move him, but if I could get an elite bat based on Verlander's start to the season, I would certainly do so. Enjoy this great series and your holiday weekend, and here is to a strong summer of fantasy stats!