Mound Musings: Targeting 2023 – Building a Draft Day Value List

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Updated on August 18, 2022 6:55PM EST

You might be in a pennant race, or you might be looking forward to 2023. If your season is slipping away (or slipped away earlier), but that doesn't mean your job is done. This is a great time to do your homework for next year, and even lay the foundations for a big season in 2023. This week we'll look at pitchers to target next spring. Keep in mind, these won't necessarily be the "best" pitchers. These are pitchers who could potentially offer considerable value on draft day. They could be difference makers. The big-name aces will likely post excellent numbers next season, but in the majority of leagues, you'll pay full price for those guys. We're looking for valuable arms you can buy at a discount. Let's see who tops my list of pitchers who are establishing themselves as players to potentially target on draft day next season:

Noah Syndergaard (Phillies) – When determining a good bet, they sometimes say, "Go big, or go home." Well, I am going big by selecting Thor for inclusion on this list, hoping he finds a home with a better pitching environment this off season. It's been a strange year for Syndergaard. Returning from Tommy John surgery, one of the purest power pitchers in the game today has transformed into a finesse, pitch to contact guy. Less reliance on his wicked breaking pitches and less velocity may have been to protect his arm, but with poor defensive teams behind him and significantly fewer

Mike Clevinger (Padres) – You will note a recurring theme on this list. Fantasy players often resort to a "what have you done for me lately" approach to assigning value, and don't take complete recovery time from a major injury into account. When Clevinger came into his own in 2018, he really impressed me withy electric stuff and a dominating mound demeanor. He made just eight starts in the Covid shortened 2020 season before missing all of 2021 following Tommy John surgery. This year, he has performed fairly well, but his velocity is down a bit and the rust of being away has impacted his command of the strike zone. He should be back to his pre-injury form for next year. He is the type of pitcher who provides only a small window for value buying.

Kodai Senga (SoftBank Hawks - Japan) – We have seen a slow but steady stream of arms (and bats) arriving from the Pacific Rim and contributing. Senga figures to be next up. He will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, so he will not require posting. The 29-year-old has been a perennial All-Star in Japan, and will likely bring his rather amazing forkball to MLB in 2023. He's not Shohei Ohtani – Ohtani is a generational talent – but he has the stuff and the experience to contribute right away. Perhaps the biggest red flag on Senga is a pretty extensive history of arm problems scattered throughout his career. If he comes over and remains healthy, I think he could help a fantasy team.

Braxton Garrett (Marlins) – He caught my eye earlier this year so regular readers are aware of my thoughts regarding his potential. The southpaw has good stuff, though not overpowering. He generally throws strikes, albeit not always well located which sometimes results in hard hit balls, but I see that command improving. He's also been a bit unlucky (.325 BABIP) and he can struggle with men on base. What probably impressed me most was his ability to miss bats (over 12% swinging strike rate), and that too could improve as he hones in on location. Miami has a history of developing talented young pitchers, and he might be the next to make a significant splash.

Jordan Montgomery (Cardinals) – He returns to thisn list yet again. Right on the edge. That's where I remain convinced Montgomery resides. He is tantalizingly close to a breakout season. Like a lot of young southpaws, his command wanders a bit, but I am seeing steady improvement. He throws strikes – well, most of the time – especially first pitch strikes, something I love to see. He generates a lot of soft contact (which is a much bigger help on a better fielding team like the Cardinals) and everything I see points to him missing more bats in the future. It's fairly unusual for a pitcher to feature as many positive indicators as Montgomery has on his ledger, so I will definitely be targeting him whenever possible on draft day 2023. I often talk about patience with young pitchers, and I have talked up Montgomery for some time with only modest success. I remain convinced his day is coming and that patience could be rewarded soon.

Mitch Keller (Pirates) – This is my big risk (hopefully) big reward choice. I have been watching Keller pitch for both Triple-A Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. All too often it's been like Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde. In Indy he displays a commanding mound presence. He has an air of confidence and aggressively goes after hitters, often dominating his opponents. Unfortunately, we only rarely see that with the Pirates. Too much nibbling, too many pitches that are easy takes, and rising pitch counts resulting in shorter outings seem to be the norm. It's there. Keller occasionally gives us glimpses, but he needs to believe it's there before we'll see more of Dr. Jeckyl and less of that Hyde guy.

Mike Soroka (Braves) – Do you suppose folks remember Soroka from back in 2019? He bounced right to the top of the Braves rotation and looked like an ace in the making. Then, just three starts into the shortened 2020 season a freakish mishap resulted in a ruptured Achilles tendon. Unfortunate, but not usually a big deal. Surgery. A lay off. Back to work. But it didn't work out that way. He needed a second surgery last year and had a couple setbacks so he is just now getting back on the mound. He made his first rehab start a few days ago and he was dazzling. He allowed one hit with no walks and eight strikeouts over four shutout innings. He is targeting an early September return to Atlanta, but just hope he settles down a bit or his 2023 draft taq will rise dramatically.

Luis Castillo (Mariners) – At first glance, he doesn't really look like he belongs on a value buys list, but he might surprise. He's been talked up in fantasy circles for quite some time, but his numbers in Cincinnati consistently disappointed. Now with a new and exciting team in Seattle he could be ready to unleash his talent. He has one of the best change-ups in the game which is enough to put him on the radar, but he's the full package. I put him on the list because the "changes in latitudes" angle is difficult to predict. Most analysts look for better from him, but how much better? I'm banking on a big jump in performance – enough to make his 2023 price tag a bargain.

I have a few honorable mentions. Most of these guys are injury related considerations, and could therefore face workload restrictions, but they could still be good investments. Kenta Maeda was a consideration to be included on the list as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Matt Manning has looked nothing like the pitcher who was very high on my watch list, but don't be surprised if he gets that magic back next season. Andrew Heaney, Cal Quantrill, and Miles Mikolas are additional thoughts.

There you have it – a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. They may not be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

The Dodgers' Walker Buehler is undergoing elbow surgery, ending his 2022 season. That's bad news, but it appears there may be a silver lining. It is not Tommy John surgery and even though a definitive recovery timeline has not been provided, hopefully he will be ready for net year. It's hard being patient.
Houston's Lance McCullers finally made his 2022 debut after recovering from a flexor strain. Not surprisingly, his command was a bit spotty (four walks over seven innings), but he tossed 81 pitches, and allowed just two hits. McCullers has long displayed durability issues, but if healthy he is clearly a fantasy asset.
The Mets are scary with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both active, but they can't keep Carlos Carrasco healthy. He came away with a strained oblique after his last outing, and that could effectively finish his fantasy season. If all goes well, he could be back for the end of the regular season, but there are no guarantees.
Sonny Gray is the leader of the Twins staff, but he has been inconsistent this year. He had a start earlier this week where he didn't allow a run. It was the sixth time he has accomplished that in 18 starts. It was against a weak Royals team, but I watched a few innings, and he was as sharp as he has been all year.
The Cardinals hope they have dodged a bullet. Jack Flaherty has missed much of the 2022 season but he recently made his second rehab start, and looked sharp. I have long been a huge fan of a healthy Flaherty, and while shoulder woes are finicky, the team needs hive back in game form for the playoffs.

Endgame Odyssey:

Remember when Boston's Matt Barnes was one of the best closers in the game? He hit an extended rough stretch, probably related to a series of injuries, but he successfully closed a game earlier this week. Is he back? Probably too soon to say, but keep an eye on his usage. It really looks like Jonathan Hernandez has claimed the closer's job in Texas. As long as he continues to perform, he should remain their top option. While he has been the "primary" closer in Arizona since Mark Melancon was relieved as the first call for the ninth inning, Ian Kennedy has been less than convincing. This is looking more and more like a full-blown committee. Clay Holmes has been suffering from back woes which might partially explain some of his recent struggles. Meanwhile, lefty Aroldis Chapman has been on something of a roll. Holmes has been placed on the IL while Chapman and Scott Effross are in line to probably share save chances for the Yankees while he is away.