Mound Musings: Disappointments Abound

We are now nearly into August. This is typically the time I try to sort through my pitching staff, and take a good long look at any underperformers. Two-thirds of the way through the season, meaning most starting pitchers have taken about 20 turns. That should be long enough for the majority to work through any mechanical issues or get healthy, or build up normal arm strength/endurance. There are exceptions, so every dog might not get the heave-ho, but I am at that point in the season in which I need a viable reason to accept poor performance. And, is this a competitive situation, or wait 'til next year?

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have made us wonder, "what was I thinking" as we reflect on draft day. Are these pitchers that should hit the waiver wire, or is there some hope making them possibilities to still help in the title chase, or at the very least, could they be favorable contract keepers in a keeper/dynasty format?

Let's take a look at some significant 2022 underperformers:

Trevor Rogers (Marlins, 4-10, 5.85 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) – Competition was fierce for this top spot on the disappointments list, but Rogers gets the nod bas much as anything because I seem to see him mentioned more than anyone else. I was on his bandwagon, too, this spring. I watched him several times in 2021, and he genuinely looked like he was experiencing a breakout year. Good stuff, good location, good mound presence. This season has been very different. The basics still seem alright, but the results have been anything but. I have come to the conclusion that Rogers got out of sync – it happens – and as he tried different things to fix it, the problems multiplied and it just confused the situation. I do believe he'll come out of it, but right now he is lost and can't find his way. I believe, but I'm afraid it may be too late to save this year. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Lucas Giolito (White Sox, 6-6, 5.14 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) – You can pretty much copy the Rogers story from above. In 2018 you could arguably claim he was the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues. Then, a complete rework of his mechanics gave us a new and improved version with better movement and better command, certainly more consistency. It looked like all was right with the world, until 2022. It appears he has backslid a bit. The command is less consistent, and the movement isn't so crisp. The velocity is down, but only slightly, and he has experienced some bad luck (.354 BABIP) along with spotty defense, but he can get hit hard at times. He still has the ability, and shows the good Giolito often enough to hope it's fixed. Verdict: Hung jury.

Jose Berrios (Blue Jays, 7-4, 5.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) – This is my own personal favorite enigma. In my analysis, his stuff and repertoire should make him one of the elite pitchers in the game. Some days we see just that, a virtually unhittable, dominating figure on the mound. Some days. Then there are "those" days. He still throws strikes better than ever, but he may actually be filling the strike zone a bit too full, resulting in a lot of hard contact. That, and he also has experienced some bad luck (often heightened by that frequent hard contact). I can't in good faith write him off, but his track record suggests you may get that clinker sometimes. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Hunter Greene (Reds, 3-12, 5.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) – When you have one of the best pure arms in the game, people pay attention. He has that, and on draft day people paid attention. Unfortunately, we sometimes forget that a big arm can come at a price.  When he reaches back, his fastball can straighten, and his off-speed stuff, while pretty good, is still inconsistent enough that hitters often ignore it and sit dead red. And, we still haven't seen so much velocity that hitters can't square it up when they know it's coming. Mammoth home runs are made of this. He's learning on the job – no easy task – pitching for a poor team, and it's a very big arm after all. Verdict: Someday maybe, just not today.

Sean Manaea (Padres, 5-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) – He got off to great start in April, making the Padres decision to add him look great, but since his first three starts, it's been a roller coaster ride. While the overall stats aren't horrible, without those early starts things would look worse. His velocity is down a bit, and Manaea is not a pure power pitcher with overwhelming stuff, so a dip in zip can be more noticeable. Perhaps more concerning, his walk rate is up considerably (3.38/9, which is the highest of his career). Even in a pitcher-friendly park, those extra baserunners can hurt, especially when you don't have the strong stuff to get out of jams. I still like him, but … Verdict: Hung jury.

Kyle Gibson (Phillies, 6-4, 4.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) – I wanted to make sure I included Gibson or someone like him (the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks fits here, too) because pitchers of this ilk almost always rely on two things. Without overwhelming stuff, they require pinpoint command, being able to throw any pitch, in any count, to an exact location, and since there will be contact, a superior defense is imperative. Gibson falls short on both counts. His command is usually pretty good, but it can be spotty, and the Phillies defense is atrocious (that might be generous). With a lower strikeout rate, these guys have limited fantasy value even when things are going well. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Patrick Corbin (Nationals, 4-14, 6.49 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) – I've been a Corbin fan for a long time, riding him through his best years, but those days may be over. The most frustrating part is you can usually tell what you will get today after only a few pitches. If he is spotting the fastball for effect, and the slider is crisp as it darts out of the strike zone at the last second, sit back and enjoy the game. If those things aren't happening, you might want to switch channels. His command has been erratic. That suggests a need for major mechanical adjustments, but there has been time enough to accomplish that. One side of me says be patient, but the other side says your ERA and WHIP can't take many more of those meltdowns. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Even if you exclude pitchers with significant injuries, there are plenty more who were considered for the list above. Ian Anderson certainly qualifies, as do Charlie Morton, Noah Syndergaard, Nick Pivetta, Ranger Suarez, and an honorable mention to Mitch Keller who could still fulfill some pretty nice potential. The list goes on and on.

Next up is the trade deadline:

We also need to stay on top of a few quality pitchers expected to change uniforms in the next few days. The trade deadline (August 2 this year) always shakes things up in fantasy circles, too. A good pitcher who has been toiling for a bad team could turn things around in a hurry if he lands in a pennant race. Names being mentioned frequently include the A's Frankie Montas who recently returned from a minor injury, which should ease the minds of potential suitors, the Reds Luis Castillo, the Cubs Marcus Stroman, and a newer name being bantered about, the Angels Noah Syndergaard. Some, if not all, of these guys will be on the move, probably along with several more. We'll take a look at the expected trade repercussions in next week's Mound Musings.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Brewers' Aaron Ashby signed a contract extension and immediately turned in a very impressive start against the Rockies. He has had an up-and-down season so far, but he has flashed a lot of potential including the ability to miss a lot of bats. Maybe the new contract will take some of the pressure off.
• Boston was embarrassed by the Blue Jays last week as they were decimated, allowing 28 runs. Nathan Eovaldi started the game but recorded just eight outs while his ERA ballooned from 3.43 to 4.30. Games like this often provide a wake-up call, so don't be too surprised if the pitching staff wakes up and performs.
• I watched part of Colorado southpaw Kyle Freeland's most recent start, and he looked very good. I have always liked him, but pitching home games in Coors Field has always tempered his outlook. If he ever finds a new, friendlier home, he could be someone I might target. He's not an ace, but he is competent.
• The Royals' Brady Singer is one I have watched for quite some time, and he is quietly coming into his own. His command is still sometimes spotty, but it is improving and that improvement has brought about more strikeouts. If only he was on a better team his fantasy value would increase dramatically.
• I was skeptical of Spencer Strider when the Braves moved him into the rotation because I was concerned with his secondary stuff, but he is winning me over. He is mixing it up better, and his command is improving, allowing him to pitch deeper into games while facing opponent's lineups multiple times.

Endgame Odyssey:

The wonder boy of the bullpen this year, the Yankees Clay Holmes, has been a bit vulnerable in his recent outings. I think workload is taking its toll with the injury-riddled bullpen short-handed most of the time. He will probably be alright if the team does as we expect and bolsters the pen before the deadline. Paul Sewald has done a respectable job in Seattle, but I think we could see Andres Munoz getting a look in the ninth inning. He has the best stuff in that bullpen and has dominated. Speaking of Seattle, remember back in 2018 when Edwin Diaz finished games for the Mariners with great efficiency? Well, that guy is back and deserves to be in any best closer in the game discussions. Still at the top of my soon-to-be-closing list is Jose Leclerc in Texas. Brett Martin continues to struggle, and Leclerc just pitched on back-to-back days for the first time since returning from the IL. It's only a matter of time.