This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB World Series Game 2 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Saturday, October 26
The World Series provided some fireworks off the bat in Game 1. Aaron Boone, in his typical "deer in the headlights" pose, pulled Gerrit Cole after 88 pitches when he was dealing only for the bullpen to squander the Yankees' 10th-inning lead. Freddie Freeman's walk-off grand slam home run was not only electric but a likely crucial early turning point in the series. Can the Yankees salvage Game 2?
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New York Yankees (+122) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-144) | O/U: 8.5 (-124/+102)
Don't mind me, I'm just a bitter Padres backer who has to watch two teams fight for the gold. Coming into the series, I felt this was Dodgers all the way. However, I felt the Yankees needed to win Game 1 with their ace on the mound to at least head back to New York tied 1-1. Because that didn't happen, it leaves the Yankees in a tough spot for the next two games until Gerrit Cole presumably takes the mound in Game 4. It'll be Carlos Rodon and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this evening.
It's been a mixed bag for Rodon this season. When he's on, he looks like the guy who dominated for the White Sox in 2021 and the Giants in 2022. But when he's off, he looks like the guy who struggled to find his footing in the Majors for the first few seasons of his career. On the road, Rodon has been subpar this year, pitching to a 4.69 ERA and .261 opponents' batting average compared to a much better 3.11 ERA and .204 at home. The biggest issue with Rodon is the long ball, a stat he ranked among the worst in the regular season by allowing 31 (second-most). The bad news is he's facing a Dodgers lineup that pummeled the third-most taters in the regular season (233). The Dodgers' first four hitters in the lineup – Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez – have combined for 128 blasts. Additionally, this lineup smashes lefty pitching .36 points higher in average and .19 points higher in OPS than right-handed pitchers. The Yankees are now in a precarious situation down a game in a disadvantaged matchup.
Yamamoto's rookie season wasn't exactly what he had hoped for dealing with injuries, but he's come around this postseason. In his first postseason start against San Diego, he got lit up for five earned runs over three innings. But in his second start, he pitched five scoreless innings. The third outing against the Mets was fine – 4.2 innings and two earned runs. Anybody who's seen him pitch lately can tell his stuff looks a lot better as Yamamoto has looked a lot more comfortable.
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The Yankees are known as the Bronx Bombers for a reason. The team that's hit the most homers in the regular season is driven by three key players – Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. They have combined for 126 Jimmy Jacks. Stanton has found a new gear in this postseason, firing six homers, including a four-game home run streak. For the rookie, it's the devastating splitter that has given hitters fits this season. Opposing batters are only hitting .170 against the putaway pitch this year.
After last night's crushing loss, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Yankees come out hot. But at the end of the day, I think they are a bit overmatched. There's a good chance Rodon doesn't make it five innings, which means the bullpen will be called on again to make key outs. I think Los Angeles jumps on Rodon early in a high-scoring affair. The Dodgers are winning this series.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Dodgers
- Dodgers ML (-144 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Over 8.5 Runs (-124 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
