The 2026 MLB regular season returning and a longstanding narrative surrounding the game has reared its ugly head yet again for fans and baseball betting interest. Several top-tier starting pitchers already have arm injuries, either during this year's Spring Training or some time in 2025.
To get a sense of how each of the 30 clubs in the MLB rank for pitching injuries, RotoWire.com compiled a ranking, dubbed the "Rotation Injury Risk Score" (or RIRS). This RIRS metric measures Opening Day IL burden on each team, a pitcher's arm injury history, 2025 durability, overall rotation age and the ERA gap between a healthy rotation and that team's actual Opening Day starting five.
Here is the list in our interactive graphic:
This list is exclusive to RotoWire, where the best MLB Betting promos line up all season.
The 2026 Pitching Injury Crisis — Context
The 2026 MLB season arrives against the backdrop of one of the worst waves of starting pitcher injuries in recent memory. The off-season and spring training period leading into Opening Day were marked by a cascade of arm injuries at the highest level. We're not talking about fringe depth arms, but genuine rotation anchors and ace-caliber starters.
The broader pattern was already in place heading into spring. The 2023-25 period produced an unusually high volume of Tommy John surgeries and major elbow procedures across the league. That has strained organizational depth and pushed teams to paper over rotation holes with younger or less proven arms. Industry observers noted that pitcher usage trends — heavier spin rates, higher velocity demands and expanded pitch mixes — have correlated with rising UCL injury rates league-wide.
Spring training 2026 accelerated that narrative dramatically. By Opening Night, the landscape looked like this:
- Gerrit Cole (NYY) — Tommy John surgery, March 2025. Won't pitch until late May/June 2026 at earliest. Missed all of 2025.
- Hunter Greene (CIN) — Bone chip/spur removal surgery, March 2026. On 60-day IL. Out until at least July. Second career elbow procedure (TJ in 2019 as a minor leaguer).
- Pablo López (MIN) — Tommy John surgery, February 2026. Out for the entire 2026 season.
- Blake Snell (LAD) — Shoulder fatigue. On 15-day IL to open the season. Return target late May.
- Corbin Burnes (ARI) — Tommy John surgery, June 2025 (Year 1 of major contract). Out until mid-July 2026.
- Zack Wheeler (PHI) — Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. On 15-day IL; on rehab assignment as of March 28.
- Spencer Strider (ATL) — Tommy John surgery, April 2024. On 15-day IL to open 2026, return timeline uncertain.
- Bowden Francis (TOR) — Tommy John surgery, 2026. Out for the year.
- José Berríos (TOR) — Stress fracture in right elbow. On 15-day IL to open the season.
- Shane Bieber (TOR) — Tommy John surgery, April 2024. Forearm fatigue delayed return; on 15-day IL.
- Hayden Birdsong (SFG) — Tommy John surgery announced Opening Night, March 25, 2026.
- Jackson Jobe (DET) — Tommy John surgery, June 2025. Questionable for entire 2026 season.
The result: seven Critical-tier teams (RIRS 65+) entered the 2026 season with rotation health so compromised that their win-total projections and MLB fantasy value are materially affected from day one. For bettors and fantasy managers, an honest accounting of this damage — before the season's first pitch — is urgently useful.
Note: The full 30-team ranked dataset is available in the interactive graphic asset. The table above covers the top 10 by RIRS score. The Yankees rank No. 4 despite the highest raw RIRS (86) because the return timelines for Cole and Rodón are relatively defined (May/June). Tier placement reflects composite score, not a single factor.
MLB Rotations That Are Most Injury Compromised
The defending American League champion Toronto Blue Jays have two starters on the 15-day IL: Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage. That makes them the most compromised rotation.
Also, José Berrios opens the season on the 15-day IL (elbow stress fracture) and Bowden Francis is on the 60-day IL blowing out his UCL and requiring Tommy John surgery. Considering all of that, you understand why Toronto had the second-highest RIRS score at 81 on our metric, behind the New York Yankees (86). Yet FanDuel Sportsbook rates the Yankees as the favorite to win the American League East with +145 odds and Toronto is second at +270.
The Atlanta Braves' rotation is also very questionable this season, with a RIRS score of 79. Their injured list includes Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Joey Wentz.
Luckily for Atlanta, Strider's injury is not to his arm, as the veteran starter is on the 15-day IL with an oblique strain. But Schwellenbach is on the 60-day IL after having bone spurs removed from his right elbow.
Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery this week and is out for the year; Waldrep is on the 15-day IL after having "loose bodies" removed from his right elbow, according to MLB.com. Finally, Wentz tore his right ACL, putting him on the 60-day IL as well, though for a non-elbow-related injury.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Braces are listed at +250 odds to win the National League East, in the middle of the five-team pack.
The No. 3 team on our list is the Cincinnati Reds (67 RIRS), who have seen ace Hunter Greene go down with an elbow injury that landed him on the team's 60-day IL, with the hard-throwing lefty expected to be out until July. And Nick Lodolo is on the 15-day IL with a finger injury.
Yankees Injury Concerns in Rotation
The Yankees (86 RIRS) put ace Gerrit Cole on the 15-day IL to start the season as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Clarke Schmidt's elbow injury has him on the 60-day IL; MLB.com reports he'll likely begin throwing bullpen sessions this month and could toss to live hitters in May.
Throw in lefty Carlos Rodón's 15-day IL stint (elbow) after he missed spring training, and you have a decent snapshot of why the "Bronx Bombers" have the highest RIRS of any team on our top 10.
The Yankees are still the favorites to win the AL pennant, carrying +1000 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook and a few other operators.
Who Else Has Starting Pitching Questions?
The most noteworthy team on our list is the two-time defending World Series champions. Los Angeles Dodgers. They are not immune to rank seventh with a RIRS score of 54.
Between a shoulder injury that'll keep lefty Blake Snell out through late May and flamethrower Gavin Stone 15-day IL stint (shoulder), there's plenty to worry about in Tinseltown. Add Landon Knack's 15-day IL stint for an intercostal strain and Bobby Miller 60-day IL spot (shoulder) to the list as well.
The Detroit Tigers (68 RIRS) seek to earn a playoff spot for the third straight season and the Arizona Diamondbacks (65 RIRS) hope to regain the form that led them to a surprise World Series run in 2023.
For Detroit, mainstays Jackson Jobe (elbow), Reese Olson (right shoulder labral tear) and Troy Melton (elbow) are all on the 60-day IL. In the Grand Canyon State, ace Corbin Burnes and fellow starter Blake Walston are on the 60-day IL with elbow injuries. Merrill Kelly (15-day IL, left intercostal nerve irritation) and Cristian Mena (60-day, shoulder) will also miss significant time in 2026.
The final MLB team labeled as a "critical" tier rotation is the lowly Washington Nationals at 72 points via our math. DJ Herz (Tommy John surgery) and Josiah Gray, the centerpiece of the Max Scherzer trade, has a strained flexor. Trevor Williams is continuing his recovery from internal brace surgery on his right elbow. All start the season on the IL for the Nationals, who are a +1700 longshot at Caesars Sportsbook to make the playoffs.
Other Rotations Have Fewer Concerns
Some teams are just below the most compromised bunch, but clubs in the next tier still have concerns.
The Minnesota Twins (61 RIRS) and Chicago White Sox (63) join the Dodgers in the "Compromised" tier, a step below the other seven who are one step higher.
For Minnesota, injuries to Pablo López (Tommy John, out for the year), David Festa (15-day IL, hamstring) and Travis Adams (15-day IL, triceps) are out. Their AL Central rival White Sox have three starters in various phases of recover after Tommy John surgery: Prelander Berroa, Ky Bush and Drew Thorpe. Berroa and Thorpe enter the year on the 15-day IL.
All told, there will be no shortage of arm injuries to top tier talent this season across the 30-team league. The 10 franchises we spotlighted are cautionary tales of sorts about the litany of ailments that continue to hamper the best and brightest taking the bump each day. These injuries are worth monitoring for customers at MLB betting sites all season.
Methodology
Rotation Injury Risk Score (RIRS)
All 30 MLB rotations are scored on a 0–100 composite scale across five weighted factors. Higher scores indicate greater injury-related risk. Scores were computed as of Opening Day, March 26, 2026.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures | Data source |
| F1 — Opening Day IL Burden | 40 pts | Quality-weighted sum of SPs on Opening Day IL; +3 per 60-day entry; ace = 18, #2 = 12, #3 = 7, depth = 4 | FanGraphs Roster Resource (3/26/26) |
| F2 — Arm Injury History | 25 pts | Elbow/shoulder IL stints 2023–2025 per top-5 starters; TJ = 8 pts, other elbow procedure = 5, shoulder surgery = 5, multiple short stints = 3 | Baseball Reference transactions + primary reporting |
| F3 — 2025 Durability | 15 pts | Avg IP for projected top-5: <100 IP = 15 pts, 100–130 = 10, 130–160 = 5, 160+ = 0 | FanGraphs depth chart projections |
| F4 — Rotation Age | 10 pts | Weighted avg age of projected top-5: 33+ = 10, 30–32 = 6, 27–29 = 3, <27 = 0 | Baseball Reference |
| F5 — Projection Delta | 10 pts | ERA gap between full-health projection and actual Opening Day roster; +0.75+ = 10, +0.40–0.74 = 6, +0.15–0.39 = 3, <0.15 = 0 | FanGraphs depth charts |
Data Sources
- FanGraphs Roster Resource Injury Report — current as of March 26, 2026 (Opening Day)
- FanGraphs Depth Charts — projected team rotation ERA and WAR (full-health and current-roster views)
- Baseball Reference — player transaction histories (2023–2025) for F2 arm injury verification
- Primary reporting from MLB.com, RotoWire, CBS Sports, The Athletic, and team beat writers for injury confirmations and return timelines
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