Top MLB Betting Picks for March 27: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
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Wednesday was tough, as we did go in on the F5 in Yankees/Giants. The insight of a low-scoring game was correct, as the total landed on 7.5, and the game ended up 7-0 in favor of the Yankees.
Early on you want to take a conservative approach, and instead of full-unit plays, you want to be at 0.50-0.75 unit plays until we get more of a sample size. We saw a TON of wild games on Thursday already with Paul Skenes getting shelled, and several large underdogs getting the win (Nationals, Guardians, Angels).
Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and it also has a ton of variance, and it is a moneyline sport. You have to look at favorites -110 to -120, or just take the underdog approach to win in the long run. The best 'dogs to take are between +100 and +150, and at home, or against weak pitchers with an inflated line. We saw this with Houston and Chicago Thursday. The Cubs were the heaviest favorite on the board, but their starting pitcher Matthew Boyd should not be priced like that.
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Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
The Athletics are going to be a team that I have a lot in situations like this (Road underdog against a pitcher that is overpriced). The Jays came within one game of beating the Dodgers in the World Series which means they also come into the season with an inflated value. This spot screams inflation from the jump with Luis Severino against Kevin Gausman.
The Jays are laying -170 . This is an A's team that was 18-10 in their final 28 road games in 2025. They were also 34-24 (.547) in their last 58 after going 41-57 (.418) in the first half. Severino looked good in the WBC, and has flashes of dominance which makes him a live dog. Toronto was just 5-5 SU in its final 10 home games as a favorite in 2025.
This could be a full-game ML play on the A's, or an F5 +0.5 run line play at -105.
Give me the A's as a juicy road 'dog tonight.
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins Best Bets and Predictions
I faded the Rockies in almost nearly every ROAD game in 2025, and have done so the past several years because of how brutally bad they have been. But, there is a scenario in which you can take a look at them, and I think tonight is one of those spots. The game is in Miami which is a suppressed run environment. We also get Kyle Freeland, who for lack of a better term, is their best pitcher.
But, more importantly, we have a Marlins team that is heavily priced in as a nearly -200 home favorite (-194), and that is just too high. I do not have faith in taking the Rockies on the ML, but let's take a look at a possible run-line angle.
Here is where the money is - last year the Marlins were -175 and -200 home favorites against the Rockies and LOST both games outright. One of those games was Sandy Alcantara versus Chase Dollander.
We can lay -1.5, but that comes at a price of -136 which I am not a huge fan of. We can also lay -1 and hope for a win or push, but again I do not like that outcome because I can see them losing 4-3.
I am willing to hedge here with a Rockies ML and F5 +0.5.
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
I think the Tigers could be the AL representative in the World Series and the Padres will be on the outside looking in NL. This line is mispriced with Framber Valdez against Michael King. I have it closer to Tigers -120, but instead they are getting a little bit of juice.
I like Michael King as a pitcher, but not as a home favorite against one of the better teams in baseball. I also think this is a prove it spot for Valdez who lasted quite a long time in the free-agent market before the Tigers jumped in to sign him. King also had a brutal spring training with a line of 10.19 ERA and 9 home runs across 17.2 innings. Those numbers are scary, and I also like the Tigers team total Over full game and F5.
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
Best MLB Bets
- Athletics ML for 0.50 unit (BetRivers +150)
- Athletics +0.5 F5 for 0.50 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Rockies ML for 0.50 unit (The Score +165)
- Rockies +0.5 F5 for 0.50 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Tigers ML for 0.50 unit (BetMGM +110)
- Tigers OVER 3.5 runs for 0.50 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Diamondbacks +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +102)
