This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last article: 3-2, +0.85 RW Bucks
Season Record: 19-16-2, +1.93 RW Bucks
I'm jumping on a pair of AL matchups Saturday to keep a solid run going, and I'll rely on a pair of left-handers to keep up their solid work while facing a pair of vulnerable veteran counterparts.
Orioles at Tigers, 4:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Bruce Zimmermann vs. Michael Pineda
The Pick: Orioles 1st 5 innings over 1.5 runs (-120) for 1 RW Buck (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Secondary Pick: Orioles (+108) for 1 RW Buck (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Zimmermann took his lumps last season, but he seems to be better for it early this season. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while allowing no more than three earned runs in any start. He's battle-tested as well, having already faced the Brewers, Yankees (twice), Angels and Twins. Zimmermann is also giving up a bit less hard contact than in his two prior seasons, with his 7.1 percent barrel rate a notable drop from the 10.0 and 9.8 percent he conceded in 2020 and 2021. The Tigers' lineup is an appealing matchup as well, posting a 24.4 percent strikeout rate, .262 wOBA, -7.2 wRAA and .062 ISO against lefties at home.
Pineda has an acceptable 3.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but other metrics suggest he's been a bit fortunate. The veteran right-hander has a career-low 5.1 K/9 and has produced a 1.7 HR/9 across his first four starts. Statcast also reveals Pineda is yielding a career-high 10.3 percent barrel rate, a .304 xBA and a .387 xwOBA with a career-high 47.1 percent hard-hit rate. All of those crooked numbers lead to an xERA of 5.55 that's more than two runs higher than his actual figure.
Yankees at White Sox, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Dallas Keuchel
The Pick: Yankees 1st 5 innings -0.5 runs (-115) for 1 RW Buck (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Secondary Pick: Both teams to score 1+ runs in first 3 innings (+125) for 1 RW Buck (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Keuchel's ugly 6.86 ERA and 2.10 WHIP are accompanied by a 5.1 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and an xBA of .291. His xwOBA of .352 and xERA of 4.43 imply he hasn't been as abysmal as some of those numbers indicate, but there's no question the Yankees have the ability to feast on a pitcher whose fastball is averaging less than 87 mph these days. New York has a .336 wOBA, 8.0 wRAA and AL-high 127 wRC+ against left-handed pitching as well, and it's worth noting the quartet of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Josh Donaldson are hitting a combined .333 (23-for-69) with four doubles and five home runs in their careers against Keuchel.
Montgomery has much more impressive numbers than his veteran counterpart, though he does have somewhat of a tricky matchup against a White Sox team that has a .264 average, .775 OPS and .344 wOBA with a 134 wRC+ against left-handers at home. The southpaw's peripheral metrics back up his strong 2.90 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, however, as he also boasts a modest 4.4 percent barrel rate allowed, along with a .249 xBA, .300 xwOBA and 3.10 xERA. Montgomery is also doing a good job limiting hard contact, as evidenced by a .371 xSLG and 33.3 percent hard-hit rate, per Statcast.
Chicago's big-name bats could certainly break through for at least one run early, but the Yankees are the favorite to come out of the first five frames with a lead considering the Sox average just 1.9 runs per first five innings at home.
