This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
We got off to a great start with our first PrizePicks article of the season, hitting on four of five recommendations. The opening month is the most unpredictable of the season, but it's also a time when these sites/sportsbooks aren't as sharp as they'll be later in the year. That's why I love playing on sites like PrizePicks early because it feels like one of the few times the books don't have an advantage. With that in mind, let's dive into our picks for this Tuesday's slate!
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Jacob Misiorowski, MIL at BOS: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
It might feel surprising to recommend a pitcher against the Red Sox, but this team is struggling mightily. They have the worst record in the AL through the opening two weeks while ranked 22nd in OBP, 28th in runs scored and 26th in K rate. That's the post-Rafael Devers effect, and it looks even worse since three of the top four bats in this lineup are righties.
Now that we have the matchup out of the way, let's discuss the pitcher. Not many guys have the nasty stuff that Miz possesses, with the righty registering a 12.3 career K/9 rate. That strikeout stuff has him looking like a Cy Young candidate this season, as he's compiled a 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 14.7 K.9 rate through two starts. That's 18 strikeouts across 11 innings, and we love that he's thrown at least 94 pitches in both outings.
Paul Skenes, PIT vs. SD: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Trivia time: How many times did Skenes record at least 18 outs in 15 home starts last season? The answer is 12, with Skenes struggling in his two starts against the Cubs. It's just bizarre to see this ace with such a low total, but that'll happen after a slow start to the season. We're talking about a guy who has a 2.10 career ERA and 0.97 WHIP, so the 18-out gems will become a regular thing in no time.
Facing San Diego sounds scary, but it's actually a great matchup for Skenes. The most impactful part of the matchup is that he's never faced the Padres, so most of these guys don't know what to expect. It's also a righty-heavy lineup, which is beneficial since Skenes is holding righty bats to a .238 OBP and .528 OPS throughout his career. San Diego's early-season struggles are the final piece of the puzzle, sitting 25th in runs scored, 27th in OBP and 29th in OPS.
Reynaldo Lopez, ATL at LAA: More Than 15.5 Outs Recorded
It feels like everyone is sleeping on Lopez. This guy made only one start in an injury-riddled 2024-25 season, but he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball aside from that. In fact, Lopez had a 1.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 2024, and has a 2.67 ERA and 1.09 WHIP dating back to 2021. He's also got a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP so far this season while recording at least 18 outs in 17 of his last 28 starts.
It was scary to see LA go off against Chris Sale yesterday, but this offense doesn't frighten us. They rank 17th in OBP, 20th in OPS and 27th in K rate this season. They were even worse in all of those statistics last year, ranked 23rd in runs scored, 25th in runs scored and dead-last in K rate.
Christian Walker, HOU at COL: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Kyle Freeland)
Whatever Walker props you see today, take the over. This guy is hitting in the heart of a Houston lineup that leads the league in OBP, OPS and runs scored. That's a prominent lineup spot, but Walker's been a major part of it. He's homered in two of his last three outings and has cleared this prop in eight of his last nine games.
The splits for Walker are impossible to overlook, too. This powerful first baseman has a .339 OBP, .781 OBP and .331 wOBA against left-handers. He also has a .386 OBP and 1.010 OPS against the Rockies throughout his career, while collecting a .409 OBP and 1.052 OPS at Coors Field. A matchup with Freeland doesn't worry us at all, with the southpaw sporting a 4.53 career ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The BvP numbers are the icing on the cake, with Walker posting a .393 OBP and .993 OPS in 41 at-bats against Freeland.
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