MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, May 11
We're faced with a limited slate Monday consisting of just six games. The evening won't be short on star power, though, with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in action. Let's dig into the betting market and highlight three wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 25-13-1 (+8.01 units)
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MLB Picks Today: Expert Betting Tips and Analysis
New York Yankees 
at Baltimore Orioles 
Betting Picks
- Yankees Over 4.5 team total runs (-135) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
The Yankees were held in check at the plate while losing all three games to the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. That was rare for them, considering that they are tied for the third-most runs scored in baseball. They also rank third in OPS and first in barrel rate.
Another key stat for the Yankees for this game is that they lead baseball in home runs. That has been an area of weakness for Orioles starter Brandon Young, who has given up 1.7 HR/9 over 78.1 career innings in the majors. That has resulted in his 5.74 ERA and a 4.40 xERA. Look for power hitters like Aaron Judge and Ben Rice to put the Yankees in a favorable position to hit this over.
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Los Angeles Dodgers 
vs. San Francisco Giants 
Betting Picks
- Dodgers ML (-178) at FanDuel for 1 Unit
The Dodgers have lost back-to-back games to fall into a tie with the Padres for the top spot in the NL West. They have gone into a bit of an offensive malaise, which has contributed to them posting a 4-7 record over their last 11 games. Still, they are 13-8 at home after recording a 52-29 home mark last year.
The Giants have followed up their 39-42 road record last season by going 6-12 on the road so far this year. Their lineup has been the main culprit for their overall losing record this year, scoring the fewest runs and posting the second-worst OPS in baseball. There is plenty of juice that comes with this wager, but with the hitting advantage that the Dodgers have, this could still be profitable.
Texas Rangers 
vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 
Betting Picks
- Rangers ML First Five Innings (-142) at FanDuel for 1 Unit
Two veterans will take the mound for this game with Nathan Eovaldi facing Michael Soroka. Soroka has a respectable 4.14 ERA, but his 5.03 xERA is cause for concern. If he's going to improve in that area, he'll need to do better than his current 1.43 WHIP. Soroka's 12.1 percent barrel rate allowed is also on pace to be the highest mark of his career.
Eovaldi struggled in his first two starts of the season, allowing a combined 11 runs. Since then, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. He hasn't finished with an ERA above 3.87 since 2019 and he hasn't had a WHIP above 1.20 since 2022. Let's eliminate the bullpens from the equation here and take the Rangers to have the lead through five innings behind Eovaldi.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Yankees Over 4.5 team total runs (-135 DraftKings)
- Dodgers ML (-178 FanDuel)
- Rangers ML First Five Innings (-142 FanDuel)
All Plays - 1 Unit
