Top MLB Picks: Best Bets for April 9
MLB 2026 betting record: 3-5, -2.55 units
Thursday's MLB schedule features a light, six-game slate with half the contests beginning before 2 p.m. ET.
I'm targeting a Detroit Tigers hitters early on, but putting the majority of my focus on tonight's matchups. My top MLB picks and predictions feature two pitching props and a play on the Kansas City Royals' offense.
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best MLB betting sites this baseball season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Best Bets and Predictions
Colt Keith has hit leadoff in six of his last seven games and in the No. 3 spot in every other contest this season. He's been put in a great position to make an impact and responded with a team-best .351 average and .898 OPS through 11 games. The infielder is back atop the lineup today. Detroit has been reeling, but it still sports a top-10 offense, per wRC+, and has a solid matchup vs. Twins righty Mick Abel (6.99 ERA over 49.1 MLB innings).
Abel has been hit hard in both of his starts and was wild each time. He has issued seven walks, and he also battled control issues throughout the minors. The Tigers should be able to put baserunners on against Abel before tapping into a Twins bullpen that sports below-average swing and miss and has also struggled to find the zone.
Keith is 8-2 vs. this line in his 10 starts.
Best Bet: Colt Keith over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs (-114 Caesars)
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this MLB season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top MLB betting promos.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Best Bets and Predictions
Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't allowed just one earned run through two starts against a pair of dangerous lineups (Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves). It's an impressive start to his 2026 season, though he's recorded just eight strikeouts in those two outings.
Tonight, Rodriguez faces a Mets team that has the sixth-lowest K rate through the first two weeks of the season. Each of Arizona's last two starters (Zac Gallen and Ryne Nelson) cleared this line vs. New York, but both landed on exactly five punchouts. Rodriguez's K rate has been trending downward for several seasons. He has a below-average 20.7 K% over the last two years with high home run rates. Even without Juan Soto in the lineup, this is a tough matchup for Rodriguez, who has been aided early on by an unsustainable 90% strand rate.
Best Bet: Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeouts (-118 BetRivers)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
There are a few ways I'm interested in attacking this game with Chicago sending lefty Anthony Kay to the mound.
One angle is to isolate Kay's innings as best as possible and back Kansas City's offense. The forecast projects tonight to be a good hitting environment at Kauffman Stadium, making this a potential blowup spot for Kay. While the southpaw held the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays to two runs each in back-to-back starts, there was plenty to dislike. Kay issued six walks in those two outings, gave up a bomb in both, and didn't record a single strikeout vs. Toronto.
Proceed with caution when examining stats this early in the season, but only three pitchers who have logged as many innings as Kay have a higher hard-hit rate. And while his 4.00 ERA looks respectable, his xERA is 8.66.
Best Bet: Kansas City over 2.5 runs, first 5 innings (-125 DraftKings)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
The matchup and venue are favorable for Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who has gone six innings in both of his starts and allowed just one run. Vasquez has a deep repertoire and has been generating whiffs on several of his offerings, but he's never been a big strikeout arm. He does have a plus strikeout matchup against the Rockies, and I'm hoping any success in that department drives up his pitch count.
The 27-year-old has enjoyed throwing at his pitcher-friendly home park but a total outs line of 17.5 is still a big number for me to get behind, especially when he's backed by one of the game's best bullpens.
Vasquez only cleared 17.5 outs in nine of 26 starts last season and in six of 20 in 2024 (a hit rate of 33%). He has never thrown six-plus innings in three consecutive starts.
Best Bet: Vasquez under 17.5 outs (-105 BetMGM)
MLB Picks Recap
- • Colt Keith over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs (-114): Caesars
- • Eduardo Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeouts (-118): BetRivers
- • Royals over 2.5 runs, first 5 innings (-125): DraftKings
- • Randy Vasquez under 17.5 outs (-105): BetMGM
