Today's 15-game slate features cold conditions across most of baseball, but three venues stand out for MLB home run props today.
I'm targeting Coors Field, a mainstay for home run bets, as it hosts the Dodgers and Rockies with dry humidity at 77°F. For my second homer, I'm heading to a domed park at Miami's loanDepot park. Lastly, the new and improved Kauffman Stadium benefits from a strong 14 mph wind blowing out to left field.
Cold weather elsewhere creates clear fade spots, making our home run picks more concentrated on these favorable environments.
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Best MLB Home Runs Props Today (April 20, 2026)
After scanning today's slate, these are my favorite MLB home run bets for April 20, 2026.
My methodology relies on simplicity. Who has been hitting the ball hard with swing speeds, exit velocities, and barrel percentages to match? From there, I examine the park and MLB weather factors of each player. Finally, I look at both their starting pitcher matchup, how they perform vs similar pitchers, and the condition of their opponents' bullpen.
Remember, home run props aren't about records in numbers – they're about profits in dollars and cents.
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Max Muncy (LAD) to Hit A Home Run (+350)
Muncy brings elite power metrics into the best launching pad conditions on the slate. His 90.8 mph average exit velocity pairs with a 56.3% pull rate on fly balls, perfectly suited for Coors Field's 118 HR index and dry 7% humidity that enhances carry. Against LHP sinkers — Jose Quintana's primary weapon — Muncy posted a 1.3 SLG with five home runs in his last 10 games versus southpaws. The altitude advantage at 5,280 feet eliminates the typical concerns about his moderate 71.2 mph swing speed, making this the top home run prop betting play of the day.
While everyone else is on Ohtani, and rightfully so, we will chase a better priced Dodger bat in Muncy.
Best Price: +350 (FanDuel)
Kyle Stowers to Hit A Home Run (+450)
Stowers returns from injury into a dream matchup at loanDepot park, where the controlled dome environment neutralizes weather variables. Michael McGreevey has already surrendered two home runs to left-handed batters in just 15 innings, sporting a dangerous 43.8% hard-hit rate versus LHB that jumps to 40% in 2026. Stowers demolished LHP four-seam fastballs for 10 home runs in 2025 — McGreevey's most frequently thrown pitch according to Baseball Savant — and the young Cardinals righty's 19.1% HR/FB rate suggests more damage ahead.
Even with neutralized park conditions, the matchup edge drives this MLB HR prop pick. Give me Stowers at a nice price.
Best Price: +450 (BetMGM)
Samuel Basallo to Hit A Home Run (+525)
Basallo enters Kauffman Stadium with 14 mph winds blowing directly out to left field — maximum launch assistance for right-handed pull hitters. Due to this, folks will flock to Pete Alonso. However, despite wind direction, I'm betting on Basallo. His elite 96+ mph exit velocity in six of seven recent plate appearances combines with a ridiculous 20% barrel rate in 2026, well above the 7% MLB average. Seth Lugo's fastball-curveball mix has already yielded three home runs to Basallo this season, and the Royals' veteran righty faces those metrics in perfect wind conditions.
The 71°F temperature keeps the ball from getting too dense while the outbound wind provides the decisive carry boost for this best home run bet. This is a much better price than +372 on Alonso, who Basallo has outpowered thus far.
Best Price: +525 (BetMGM)
Other MLB Home Run Bets Today: My Favorite Pivots
We all know how the story goes: If it's not the player you bet on to go yard, it's the player hitting before or after him in the lineup.
These are my favorite batters in games I targeted but didn't list as a favorite above:
- LAD: Will Smith – Best Price: +450, BetMGM
- BAL: Gunnar Henderson – Best Price: +475, theScore Bet
- MIA: Owen Caissie – Best Price: +800, BetMGM
