MLB Futures: NL Cy Young Award Odds

There's a big favorite in the NL Cy Young award race, but Michael Rathburn explains why he is backing Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

March 25, 2026

By:

Michael Rathburn

March 25, 2026

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MLB Futures: NL Cy Young Odds

As the 2026 MLB season begins, the race for the NL Cy Young Award is on.

With voters prioritizing elite run prevention, high strikeout rates, durability, and advanced metrics like WAR and FIP, the blueprint for a winner has never been clearer if you look at recent history.

The question now isn't just who has the best stuff -- it's which aces are positioned to log 175+ innings, dominate with swing-and-miss, pitch on competitive teams and surge in the second half.

From established Cy Young winners looking to repeat to high-upside breakout candidates poised to take the leap, the 2026 awards landscape is loaded with intrigue -- and opportunity.

NL Cy Young Odds

Name	Team	Opening Odds (11/12/25)	Current Odds (3/25/26)	Change
Paul Skenes	PIT	+350	+210	-140
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	+475	+650	+175
Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	+900	+800	-100
Chris Sale	ATL	+1300	+1400	+100
Logan Webb	SFG	+1200	+1700	+500
Blake Snell	LAD	+1500	+1800	+300
Zack Wheeler	PHI	+1200	+2000	+800

The MLB season is here, and you can get ahead of the game with the sportsbook promos and sports betting apps.

Much like the American League race, the NL is a two-horse race with Skenes and Yamamoto, which is evident by the line movement. Other notables with low line movement include Cristopher Sanchez, Chris Sale and Blake Snell.

The Field

Rank	Pitcher	Tier	Profile Strength
1	Paul Skenes	Tier 1	Generational stuff, ace trajectory, market-backed
2	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Tier 1	Proven international ace, strong team context
3	Cristopher Sanchez	Tier 2	Emerging frontline starter
4	Chris Sale	Tier 2	Veteran pedigree, durability question
5	Logan Webb	Tier 2	Durable innings-eater, lower K ceiling
6	Blake Snell	Tier 2	Two-time Cy pedigree, volatility
7	Zack Wheeler	Tier 2	Injury questions, consistent WAR machine

NL Cy Young Benchmarking

One of the best strategies used in sports betting is the criteria for teams to win the NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship.

I wanted to look at the same thing for Cy Young Award winners and this is what I came up with.

ERA under 2.50
K-BB % Top 5 in league
WAR 5.0 or greater
Innings 180 or greater
WHIP under 1.05

Team success is not as much of a factor in the Cy Young as it is with awards like MVP, which is why Paul Skenes has been able to win it. You either have to go with an established pitcher -- which is mostly what has won the last few years -- or you are looking for that extreme breakout. By establishing benchmarks, you are narrowing the pool with laser focus and not just throwing darts.

Bank on the proven guys first, then take a calculated flier on a long shot.

NL Cy Young Picks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+650)

We saw how truly dominate he can be in the postseason and coming into 2026, he looks primed to make a run at the Cy Young award. While team profile does not have as much of an impact in the Cy Young race versus MVP, it still helps that he plays on the best team in baseball.

Spencer Strider (+3500)

Strider was the third best pitcher in baseball from 2022-2023 with a 9.6 cumulative WAR. This is banking that he is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. He showed signs last season with dominant stretches in June, July, and September.

Eury Perez (+3500)

There are traits that a pitcher has to show in order to compete to win a Cy Young award and Perez has a few. He pitches in one of the best ballparks and he has a high strikeout ceiling. The road splits could be his downfall, as his six worst starts in 2025 all came on the road.

Emmet Sheehan (+15000)

Sheehan is my long shot for the NL based on the way he finished in 2025 and he should be in a strong position to get enough innings. The issue will be health, but the 5th starter on the best team in baseball is a great narrative for a dart throw.