MLB Futures: AL MVP Award Odds

Bobby Witt Jr. has as much upside as anyone, and the Royals shortstop is Michael Rathburn's pick to click in the race for the AL MVP award.

March 25, 2026

By:

Michael Rathburn

March 25, 2026

MLB Picks

MLB Draft Kit

Prepare for your baseball season with RotoWire's MLB Draft Kit including rankings, auction value support, and mock draft simulator.

MLB Futures: AL MVP Odds

The 2026 MLB season is here, and we break down the frontrunners for the AL MVP award.

The favorites are Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Cal Raleigh, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and youngsters Roman Anthony, Nick Kurtz and Gunnar Henderson up next.

Three players -- Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Mike Trout -- won seven out of the last 10 AL MVP awards.

While Raleigh emerged as a serious threat in 2025, the MVP winner is usually someone with a track record. However, we have several candidates that look like they could break through in 2026.

AL MVP Odds

Name	Team	Opening Odds (11/12/25)	Current Odds (3/25/26)	Change
Aaron Judge	NYY	+300	+215	-85
Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	+500	+500	0
Cal Raleigh	SEA	+750	+1100	350
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	+1200	+1300	100
Roman Anthony	BOS	+2800	+1400	-1400
Nick Kurtz	ATH	+900	+1500	600
Gunnar Henderson	BAL	+1600	+1500	-100
Jose Ramirez	CLE	+1300	+1600	300
Julio Rodriguez	SEA	+1000	+1700	700
Junior Caminero	TB	+1700	+2000	300

The MLB season is here, and you can get ahead of the game with the sportsbook promos and sports betting apps.

Line movement on player futures is typically highly concentrated as bettors are hesitant to lock up money for nearly a year. Clearly the money early on has come in on Judge and the only thing that can derail him is an injury.

Raleigh gave him an incredible race and will be one of the top favorites again. Witt has been knocking on the door and as he enters his prime years, the opportunity is there especially with the favorable changes made to his home ballpark.

Team performance does play more of an impact on the MVP race vs. others, so Rodriguez is also in play as the Mariners are the favorites in the American League. J-Rod's overall game leads to him having a potential 7+ WAR season which is needed to win the MVP.

Roman Anthony is an intriguing name because of his pedigree and the line movement is something you typically do not see in the offseason. His odds have gone from +2800 to +1400. The value in taking him now has diminished, but it is significant to take note of this move.

The Field

Rank	Player	Tier	Profile Strength
1	Aaron Judge	Tier 1	Historic power, elite WAR ceiling (8–10), prior MVP pedigree, Yankee narrative boost
2	Bobby Witt Jr.	Tier 2	30/30 upside, premium position, 7–9 WAR ceiling
3	Cal Raleigh	Tier 2	Power at catcher boosts positional value
4	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Tier 2	Elite bat, RBI narrative potential
5	Roman Anthony	Tier 3	Prospect hype + breakout potential, big market, pedigree
6	Nick Kurtz	Tier 3	Breakout projection play
7	Gunnar Henderson	Tier 3	SS value, 30+ HR upside, strong WAR profile
8	Jose Ramirez	Tier 3	Perennial 6–7 WAR floor, balanced production
9	Julio Rodriguez	Tier 3	Superstar tools, CF defense, AL Favorites
10	Junior Caminero	Tier 3	Explosive upside, unproven full-season durability

AL MVP History

2025: Aaron Judge (NY Yankees)
2024: Aaron Judge (NY Yankees)
2023: Shohei Ohtani (LA Angels)
2022: Aaron Judge (NY Yankees)
2021: Shohei Ohtani (LA Angels)
2020: José Abreu (Chi White Sox)
2019: Mike Trout (LA Angels)
2018: Mookie Betts (Boston Red Sox)
2017: Jose Altuve (Houston Astros)
2016: Mike Trout (LA Angels)

AL MVP Benchmarking

The MVP of the league will typically come from this group of benchmarking.

7–10 WAR
170+ wRC+
40+ HR or elite OBP
145+ games played
Plays premium position OR has historic offensive season
Team in playoff mix

AL MVP Picks

Bobby Witt (+500)

He's been knocking on the door which is scary considering his age and market, but maybe as soon as this year he could be the BEST player in baseball. He plays a premium position, improving team, ballpark changes, and you get him at a discount versus Judge.

Gunnar Henderson (+1500)

He showed his potential in 2024 and never could get going in 2025 dealing with injuries. The Orioles made a lot of key moves in the offseason with hopes of bouncing back after a disappointing 2025. Henderson has a lot of the same characteristics as Witt with playing a premium position, high projected WAR, and his odds have remained the same which shows equity.

How to Bet Aaron Judge

You can go two ways with him. You can just accept the chalk and his track record, but split the unit with other players. Or you can fade him early, hope he either starts slow or has a minor injury and you can jump on +EV.