MLB Futures: AL Cy Young Odds
As the 2026 MLB season begins, the race for the AL Cy Young Award is on.
With voters prioritizing elite run prevention, high strikeout rates, durability, and advanced metrics like WAR and FIP, the blueprint for a winner has never been clearer if you look at recent history.
The question now isn't just who has the best stuff -- it's which aces are positioned to log 175+ innings, dominate with swing-and-miss, pitch on competitive teams and surge in the second half.
From established Cy Young winners looking to repeat to high-upside breakout candidates poised to take the leap, the 2026 awards landscape is loaded with intrigue -- and opportunity.
AL Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher | Team | Opening Odds (11/12/25) | Current Odds (3/25/26) | Change |
| Tarik Skubal | DET | +380 | +350 | -30 |
| Garrett Crochet | BOS | +400 | +425 | +25 |
| Cole Ragans | KC | +900 | +1000 | +100 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | +850 | +1300 | +450 |
| Max Fried | NYY | +1500 | +1500 | 0 |
| Hunter Brown | HOU | +1100 | +1500 | +400 |
| Bryan Woo | SEA | +1300 | +1700 | +400 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | +2000 | +2000 | 0 |
The MLB season is here, and you can get ahead of the game with the sportsbook promos and sports betting apps.
You can tell by the line movement that most of the money is on Skubal and Crochet, but the one guy to keep an eye on is Logan Gilbert, whose odds have remained the same from mid-November through March. The most intriguing name in the American League is MacKenzie Gore.
Other notables are Hunter Brown -- a favorite of mine going on two years -- and Max Fried.
The Field
| Rank | Pitcher | Tier | Profile Strength |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | Tier 1 | Elite, but can he three-peat and risk of a trade to NL? |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | Tier 1 | Strikeout dominance, high ceiling, improved infield defense, adding splitter |
| 3 | Cole Ragans | Tier 2 | Strong K profile, rising ace, but not proven to hit innings |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | Tier 2 | Best rate stats, lower IP cap, health/age risk |
| 5 | Max Fried | Tier 2 | Big market team and was dominant last year for long stretch, but struggled mid season |
| 6 | Hunter Brown | Tier 2 | Durable power arm, but team around him not as strong |
| 7 | Bryan Woo | Tier 3 | Could be right behind Gilbert; strongest home splits in MLB |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | Tier 3 | High innings reliability; solid home park, #1 favorite in AL (Mariners) |
AL Cy Young Benchmarking
One of the best strategies used in sports betting is the criteria for teams to win the NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship.
I wanted to look at the same thing for Cy Young Award winners and this is what I came up with.
- ERA under 2.50
- K-BB % Top 5 in league
- WAR 5.0 or greater
- Innings 180 or greater
- WHIP under 1.05
Team success is not as much of a factor in the Cy Young as it is with awards like MVP, which is why Paul Skenes has been able to win it. You either have to go with an established pitcher -- which is mostly what has won the last few years -- or you are looking for that extreme breakout. By establishing benchmarks, you are narrowing the pool with laser focus and not just throwing darts.
Bank on the proven guys first, then take a calculated flier on a long shot.
AL Cy Young Picks
Garrett Crochet (+425)
Crochet was right there with Skubal most of last season, but he did give up some homeruns late which hurt his metrics. The Red Sox infield defense has significantly improved and their outfield already has two Gold Glovers. The talk is Crochet is adjusting his changeup to be more of a splitter which could put him over the top in the American League.
Logan Gilbert (+2000)
I love a pitcher on a strong contender in an elite pitchers' park and we get that with Gilbert. He has hit the innings threshold needed in the past (2021-2023), but did have some injuries last year which limited him to 130 innings. The strikeout rate has jumped significantly from 23, 24, 27 and last year with 32. He is the number one pitcher on the Mariners who are the the odds on favorites in the American League.
MacKenzie Gore (+4000)
Ok, some people are going to read this and think this guy is crazy. Gore was 5-15 in 2025, but if you just look at his numbers from the start of the season until June 15th this is what we have.
87 innings, 119 strikeouts, 23 walks, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 12.3 K/9. That's elite.
Globe Life Field played as the most pitcher friendly park in 2025.
If you look at what the NL opening odds were in mid-November, Gore was sitting at +1900 on a terrible Nationals team. Fast forward to now. Gore does come with some risk which is why his odds are so long, but seriously why such an increase? This is all about potentially capturing lightening in a bottle and gaining some serious line value to sell off later.
AL Cy Young Fades
The biggest reason for the fade on Skubal is two-fold. Never bet the chalk in the futures market and there is still a chance of him being traded over the the National League. Nothing against Skubal, it is just more the situation.
AL Cy Young Best Bets
1-Unit Portfolio
Main Candidate
- Garrett Crochet, BOS (0.50 unit +425)
Secondary Candidate
- Logan Gilbert, SEA (0.40 unit +2000)
Long Shot
- MacKenzie Gore, TEX (0.10 unit +4000)
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