This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Four Game 1s of the Divisional Series get going Saturday, with action coming at us all day, starting at 1:03 p.m. EDT in Baltimore and wrapping up with a 9:20 first pitch in Los Angeles. Weather looks a tad dreary for that first game, but the game should be playable. Early reports indicate we'll have favorable winds blowing out in Atlanta.
Seemingly predictably and potentially wind-aided, Braves-Phillies has our highest run line at 8.5, while the other three games sit at 8.0. Atlanta starter Spencer Strider has a huge price tag but has dominated the Phillies. He'll be hard to fit in if you're also targeting Atlanta bats, which are equally expensive.
Pitching
Justin Verlander, HOU vs. MIN ($9,700): This perhaps is too obvious for GPPs, but if we're not paying for Strider, Verlander is the right play as Clayton Kershaw's innings potential seems too low for a huge return. Minnesota is likely the most targetable offense for pitching that remains. Verlander didn't face the Twins during the regular season, but for his career against the hitters on their roster, he's allowed a .149 average (10-for-67) with a .568 OPS, striking out 22. A 28.2 percent K rate gives Verlander plenty of potential at this price.
Kyle Bradish, BAL vs. TX ($9,500): It's a stretch to find enough compelling arms on this small slate, but Bradish has some appeal; he's riding a 16-inning shutout streak over his last three outings, fanning 18. He faced the Rangers twice in the regular season, allowing just one run and five hits over 8.1 innings. Neither of those starts came after May however, and I find the Rangers lineup depth presently to be a challenge. If nothing else, Bradish is likely to have low usage, and he's shown potential to match any arm on the slate.
Top Targets
The divisional familiarity makes Dodger bats off Merrill Kelly highly targetable. They got him for 27 hits and 11 runs across 20.1 innings this season. Mookie Betts ($4,400) is hitting just .250 off Kelly, but has homered three times in 32 at bats. Max Muncy ($3,900) could be a lower-used play, going 14-for-34 (.412) with a 1.118 OPS off the D'Backs starter.
Entry points to the Atlanta offense are always difficult given their high prices, and Ranger Suarez has had success against this offense despite the Braves' prolific numbers off lefties. The exception is Austin Riley ($3,900), who is 6-for-16 (.375) with a homer and 1.188 OPS. We want shares here for certain, moreso if the wind is confirmed at double-digits going out. Perhaps build elsewhere and see what piece you can fit in to round things out.
Corbin Carroll ($4,300) remains a tough out, and is 4-for-7 off Kershaw with two homers, but struggled off lefties all year with just a .318 OPS. Christian Walker ($3,800), however, did not. He posted a .381 wOBA and .319 ISO off southpaws. And he's 10-for-34 (.296) with five homers off the Dodgers' starter. High risk, high reward as he's hitless in five of his last six games.
Bargain Bats
Will Smith ($3,400) and Chris Taylor ($2,900) offer cheaper entries into the Dodgers lineup, with decent BvP success. Smith has more potential in a run-producing spot of the lineup, and is 10-for-31 (.323) while Taylor is 10-for-32 (.313), both with a homer.
Somewhat curiously, and unsuccessfully, Robbie Grossman ($2,700) hit third in both wild-card games. He did next to nothing, but if that holds, he's got a shot to produce in the heart of this lineup. Leody Taveras ($2,900) stole a base in both wild-card games, earning double-digit fantasy points each time.
I think a relatively easy stack is to load up on Phillies bats, as their struggles against Strider mean you'd have to assume low usage. But the stats are what they are, and I can't build a convincing case. Brandon Marsh ($2,800) has the only success off Strider (4-for-11), while Alec Bohm ($3,300) is priced favorably for his middle of the order lineup spot.
Stack to Consider
Astros vs. Bailey Ober: Yordan Alvarez ($4,200), Jose Altuve ($4,000), Kyle Tucker ($4,000)
This is expensive, eliminates the opportunity for top bats elsewhere, and likely eliminates paying up for a pitcher, so it's a risky approach. But we know the Astros hit in the playoffs, and I'll take their core, add a cheap starter on the mound and still have around $3,000 per player to build a lineup. Ober is a flyball pitcher, allowing 49.6 percent on the year, a risky proposition in the postseason. And he really struggled to keep the ball in the park, allowing 16 homers in 54.2 second-half innings. It led to a .373 wOBA to lefties and a .406 wOBA to righties. Tucker has a 41.7 percent flyball rate and Alvarez a 50.2 percent rate. I look for Altuve to get on in front of them, and benefit from some pop from these two. If you're targeting flyballs, Altuve isn't the play, and we could save some funds with Alex Bregman ($3,500). He hit safely in five straight to end the year, lifts balls at a 43.8 percent rate (Altuve sits at 30.4) and is 3-for-6 with a homer off Ober.
