Nine games comprise Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel, which gets underway at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Three arms are priced in five figures with five more in the $9,000 tier, so 44.4 percent of our arms are in a pay-up level, suggesting we won't likely be able to go cheap on the mound.
Coors Field is present, giving us an elevated 11.0 run total, but three games come with low 7.5 scoring expectancy, seeming to back up the pay up pitching options. The Mets (-184), losers of 11 straight, are the slate's biggest favorite, followed by the Dodgers (-180). Slight rain chances are present in Anaheim, but otherwise we're largely dry. Keep an eye on winds as we're closer to first pitch, as they could be blowing out in Chicago, Kansas City, San Francisco and Denver, giving us the potential for some offensive boosts.
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Pitching
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD at SF ($10,900): If paying up is the play Tuesday, and it certainly looks like it is, I see no reason to mess around and just take the top option. Yamamoto has returned under 40 FDP just one in four starts, going at least six innings in every outing and striking out at least six three times. The Giants' roster is hitting .139 across 90 plate appearances against him, fanning 27.8 percent of the time. He has an equal 42.6 percent fly ball and ground ball rate, so the wind concerns do cause very minor reason for pause, but it should be all systems go against a lineup with an 81 wRC+ and .287 wOBA against righties.
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. CWS ($9,200): Kelly profiles better for cash lineups as a stable floor play at a slightly reduced price to the top options, but it's unlikely he'll offer a high enough ceiling for GPPs to merit consideration. The White Sox come with a 24.6 percent K rate against righties while posting a .286 wOBA and 79 wRC+. Think 3x return here due to a lack of strikeout and inning potential. High floor, low ceiling, set it and forget it.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. ATH ($7,500): Perhaps Castillo is due some progression as his 5.40 ERA comes with a 3.30 FIP and a .403 BABIP. Pitching at home always makes him a consideration, and the A's have a low 3.1 run expectancy paired with the Mariners (-172) being overwhelming favorites. Castillo's Ks are down, and have been for three seasons (under nine per nine) and his walks are up (3.4 per nine), so this is far from a slam dunk. But that's clearly factored in to the price.
Top Targets
This seems to start with which Padre piece do you want to build around in Coors Field. Fernando Tatis ($3,700) is still without a home run, but has reached double-digit fantasy points in three of four and seems overdue for a big fly. Gavin Sheets ($3,100) is in play with the Rockies likely using a righty for bulk work.
Corbin Carroll ($3,900) has double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four, and while it's a small sample, White Sox' starter Sean Burke is allowing a .477 wOBA to lefties on the road.
Bargain Bats
Shane Baz is allowing a .438 wOBA to lefties, and teams are clearly leaning into that as he's faced 62 as opposed to 38 righties. Kansas City's lineup is loaded with options too, so you can perhaps build elsewhere and use Royals' as fallbacks to finish your build. Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,600) and Jac Caglianone ($2,600) stand out for power potential.
There remains a plethora of star players in poor form and priced down. Tuesday looks like a day to consider Francisco Lindor ($2,900) from that pool. He's got multiple hits in four of his last seven, while Twins' starter Simeon Woods Richardson is allowing a .467 wOBA to lefties on the road.
Alex Bregman ($2,800) fits that mold as well. He's 4-for-13 with two homers off Jesus Luzardo. I have some interest in game stacking this matchup if we can confirm outbound winds.
Stack to Consider
Angels vs. Patrick Corbin (Blue Jays): Zach Neto ($3,600), Jorge Soler ($3,600), Jo Adell ($2,900)
It would appear easy and obvious to simply pencil in Mike Trout here, but he's just 2-for-14 off Corbin, so perhaps pivoting and grabbing a plethora of shares around him can work and be a touch contrarian. Soler is just 2-for-22, so that play is even more contrarian, but he's got a .391 wOBA and 149 wRC+ off lefties, the lowest of this trio. Neto is 5-for-11 against Corbin, and offers a .422 wOBA and 170 wRC+, while Adell is at .502/224.
