This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
I hope you enjoyed your 4th of July, but there is no rest on the DFS front. This is MLB's time to shine, and Wednesday there are 11 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. In hopes of keeping the good vibes from the holiday going, here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Justin Steele, CHC at MIL ($10,300): The naming of the All-Star Game rosters are always illuminating. Maybe you saw them and thought to yourself, "Justin Steele is an all-star?" Indeed! The lefty doesn't only have a 9-2 record, but a 2.43 ERA paired with a 2.81 FIP. The Brewers have one of the five worst team batting averages, and with a lefty on the mound, guys like Christian Yelich are likely to be kept in check.
Pablo Lopez, MIN vs. KC ($10,100): The Twins traded for Lopez in hopes of adding a steady mid-rotation starter who could rack up starts and eat up innings, and they've gotten a guy with a 3.41 FIP through 102.0 innings. Now, he has been decidedly worse at home as a Twin, but this matchup balances that out to me. The Royals have fallen to 29th in runs scored, and they are threatening to finish the year with a sub-.300 OBP as well.
Alex Cobb, SF vs. SEA ($8,600): When Cobb is within the shadow of the Golden Gate Bridge, he's an elite pitcher. Last year, his first as a Giant, he had a 2.68 ERA at home. This year, his home ERA is down to 1.43. The Mariners are right in the middle of the majors in runs scored, but their .232 batting average and .389 slugging percentage make me feel like they have been lucky to get that high.
Top Targets
Marcus Semien ($5,900) has changed his game a bit, and as a result likely won't match his 26 homers from last year, but his .280/.345/.451 slash line is the product of his work. While he hasn't been brutal at home like in his first season with the Rangers, he is still decidedly better on the road, with an .835 OPS in away games over the last two years. Brayan Bello has dropped his ERA from 4.71 to 3.08, but this year his FIP is up to 3.73. He also has a 3.60 ERA at Fenway in his career.
As per usual, Jose Ramirez ($5,800) has put Cleveland's offense on his back. A perpetual lock for a 20/20 season, Ramirez is a switch hitter, but since 2021 he has an .920 OPS against righties. Injuries have derailed Michael Soroka's career, and he doesn't seem quite ready to face MLB hitters yet. Through three starts this season he has a 7.44 FIP.
Bargain Bats
Though Alex Kirilloff ($2,700) doesn't have much power, he does have a .278 average and .381 OBP. He also has an .867 OPS versus right-handed pitchers. The Royals are giving Alec Marsh a second start because, well, the choices are lacking. In Marsh's MLB debut he allowed five runs, 10 base runners, and two homers in four innings against the Dodgers.
While CJ Abrams ($2,700) is far from living up to his prospect status, he's kind of bringing it in the counting stats. The lefty has seven homers and nine stolen bases from the shortstop position. Also, while he is brutal against southpaws, his career .707 OPS against righties is adequate. Graham Ashcraft's sophomore campaign is going way worse than Abrams. After a good start to 2023, he's completely come off the rails, posting a 10.89 ERA over his last nine starts.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta at Guardians (Cal Quantrill): Matt Olson ($6,400), Sean Murphy ($5,800), Michael Harris ($4,600)
A red-hot Atlanta offense vying to claim the throne of the best in baseball will get a chance to pad its numbers against Quantrill. His 6.18 ERA through 12 starts owes to the fact he allows a ton of guys to get on base. Quantrill has struck out a mere 5.03 batters per nine innings while allowing 3.16 walks per nine. Lefties have hit .280 against him, while righties have hit .288. Throw in his 10.03 ERA over his last five starts and it really came down to picking and choosing among Atlanta's many fine options.
Olson is having a bad season against lefties, but has balanced it out with a fantastic season against righties. He has an 1.028 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, and he's hit 25 of his 28 home runs off them. Atlanta has been taking it easy with Murphy, allowing the catcher a lot of rest. When he's played, though, he has a .294/.389/.557 slash line. With the All-Star break coming soon, hopefully Murphy will be behind the plate a bit more. It seems like Harris is geared up to try and replicate the 19 homers and 20 stolen bases he had as a rookie. With an 1.139 OPS over the last three weeks, the lefty is up to nine homers and 10 stolen bases in 2023.
Blue Jays at White Sox (Lance Lynn): Vladimir Guerrero ($4,800), Daulton Varsho ($3,300), Brandon Belt ($3,000)
With so many notable hitters plying their trade for the Blue Jays, this may seem like an odd stack. However, it makes sense against Lynn. In addition to his 7.22 ERA, Lynn has allowed lefties to hit a whopping .345 against him. Thus, I wanted to get to southpaws in this stack.
Guerrero is a righty, but he is a career .283 hitter with power upside, even though he only has 13 homers this year. Notably, Vladito has a .697 OPS at home, but he has an .878 OPS on the road. Varsho has really struggled at home in his first season with Toronto. He has an .818 OPS in away games though. Also, even with his home struggles, Varsho has 12 homers and 11 stolen bases. Belt has a .370 OBP and just hit two home runs Monday. They both came against righties, naturally, and since 2021 he has an .872 OPS versus right handers.
Dodgers vs. Pirates (Osvaldo Bido): Freddie Freeman ($6,100), Max Muncy ($4,700), David Peralta ($3,300)
Bido has only made four MLB starts, posting a 4.74 ERA. However, it probably says something that he spent his entire age-26 season at Triple-A, posting a 4.55 ERA and not getting a call up from a Pirates team lacking a formidable rotation. So far, lefties have hit .294 against Bido, so why not stack three southpaws?
Earlier in his career, I never envisioned Freeman has a guy with 14 homers and 11 stolen bases through 84 games, but here we are. His .314 batting average is not surprising, though, and he still has a .527 slugging percentage as well. Muncy has racked up 19 home runs, even with missing a decent chunk of time. This year he has an .856 OPS against righties, but also an .855 OPS at home. Peralta has a .950 OPS over the last three weeks. In his first season with the Dodgers he has an .842 OPS at home as well.
