It's been an exciting opening two weeks to the season, and it's always amazing to watch the baseball season develop. My PrizePicks article went really well yesterday, and I'm looking to build off of that momentum. What's interesting about this slate is that you'd better get your lineups in early. The 10-game slate starts at 1 p.m. ET, and many West Coasters will still be stuck in morning traffic by the time these start. With that said, let's get started with one of the most talented young arms in baseball.
Pitching
Kyle Bradish, BAL at CWS ($8,500)
Bradish has gotten off to a rough start this season, but this guy has ace stuff. He showcased it in his return to action last season, sporting a 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 rate across six starts. That strikeout rate is one of the best you'll see, but it's no surprise since he was once one of the top prospects in baseball. A soft landing spot against Chicago is what could get him back on track because the White Sox were bottom five in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA last season. We saw Bradish drop 27 DraftKings points when he faced them last year, and he enters this matchup as a -170 favorite!
Grant Holmes, ATL at LAA ($6,700)
Chris Sale killed us on Monday, but we're going back to this Angels well. They're simply one of the best matchups in DFS, posting the worst K rate in baseball since the start of last season. They're also 21st in OPS this year and should be without their cleanup hitter after the brawl last night. That makes Holmes a solid value at just $6,700 because he's one of the cheapest pitchers on a 10-game slate. That's difficult to understand since he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season after allowing four runs or fewer in 19 of 21 starts last year.
Top Targets
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (vs. Sean Burke) $5,800
Henderson was an MVP candidate two years ago, and he looks like he's recaptured that form. This shortstop has 54 homers and 51 steals over the last two years while posting a .357 OBP and .847 OPS in that span. He's been even better this season, homering in four of his last eight outings. We also love that he's rocked righties throughout his career, registering a .891 OPS against them over the last three seasons. That won't bode well for Burke, who's got a 4.18 ERA and 1.43 WHIP since last year after posting a 6.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP throughout his Triple-A career. Stacking Baltimore is easy, with Samuel Basallo ($3,300) and Colton Cowser ($3,100) looking too cheap from the left side.
Christian Walker, HOU (vs. Michael Lorenzen) $5,000
I had Walker in my PrizePicks article yesterday, and you simply can't fade this guy in Coors Field. His splits there are unbelievable, with Walker totaling a .386 OBP and 1.007 OPS against the Rockies and a .409 OBP and 1.045 OPS in Coors Field. Those are large sample sizes, and we can't overlook the fact that this power hitter has homered in three of his last four fixtures. That makes him a solid value at $5K, and we didn't even discuss the matchup. Walker and the Stros face the worst pitcher on this slate, and we'll talk about that more in the stacks section!
Bargain Bats
Austin Riley, ATL (vs. Reid Detmers) $3,700
How strange is it to see Riley at $3,700? This guy has been closer to $5,000 throughout his career, and this feels like an overreaction to a slow start. What we love here is that Riley has a fantastic matchup. Let's start with Detmers, who has a 4.71 career ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Most importantly, it gives Riley the platoon advantage from the right side. He has a .350 OBP and .880 OPS against southpaws throughout his career. If you want to stack Atlanta, Ronald Acuna ($5,500) and Drake Baldwin ($4,500) have the platoon advantage against Detmers as well.
Jordan Walker, STL (vs. Miles Mikolas) $3,000
Fantasy managers have been waiting for Walker to break out for years, and it feels like we're finally getting our wish. He's posted some of the best hard-hit metrics around, and it's culminated in three homers over his last four outings. That's also moved Walker up to the cleanup spot, and that's where he thrived in the minors when he posted a .361 OBP and .839 OPS. It's hard to believe he's just $3,000 as one of the highest-scoring players in DFS, and we'll discuss the matchup in the stacks section!
Stacks to Consider
Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies (Michael Lorenzen): Yordan Alvarez ($6,500), Jose Altuve ($5,500), Walker ($5,000) and Cam Smith ($4,200)
Seeing the Stros lose the first two games of this series was shocking, but look for them to bounce back here. This is a team that ranks first in runs scored and OPS, facing a pitching staff that was last in ERA and WHIP last season. That's why Houston is the highest-projected offense on this slate, facing a guy who has a 14.73 ERA and 2.86 WHIP after getting tormented to the tune of nine runs in his home debut.
Alvarez is easily the best option on this slate, amassing a 1.334 OPS so far this season while having the platoon advantage against Lorenzen. Altuve is right there with him, accruing a 1.180 OPS. These two also have been prime players at their positions for more than five years now. Smith is the cheap option of the bunch, collecting three homers and three steals en route to a 1.017 OPS. No wonder this is the highest-scoring team in baseball!
St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas): Alec Burleson ($4,500), JJ Wetherholt ($4,200), Nolan Gorman ($3,300) and Walker ($3,000)
The Cardinals aren't a team we'll be stacking much this season, but they've been sneaky; ranked 10th in scoring. That pairs beautifully with how cheap these guys are, making them a great fit with the Stros mentioned above. The most impactful variable is facing a former St. Louis slinger, with Mikolas maintaining a 14.46 ERA and 2.25 WHIP so far this season.
Burleson is the everyday three-hole hitter in St. Louis, tallying a .293 AVG and .818 OPS against righties over the last three years. Wetherholt has become their leadoff hitter in his rookie season, accumulating a .978 OPS at the minors while averaging 9.2 DK points per game. Gorman also has the platoon advantage against Mikolas, generating a .766 OPS against them this year.
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