This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday can be light days for MLB, but with the All-Star break coming up soon, this week is a bit different. While there isn't a full slate, there is plenty of MLB action over the course of the day, with six games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later on the slate, which is where the DFS focus is. Now, there are seven games scheduled, but DraftKings has axed the unexpected Blue Jays-White Sox doubleheader closer. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Julio Urias, LAD vs. PIT ($9,400): It's been a tough season for Urias, and he return from injury went poorly. However, hopefully he has worked those kinks out. If you are looking for positive signs, he has an 1.99 ERA at home this year, and a 2.72 ERA at home since 2021. The Pirates are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, having regressed to be in line with preseason expectations after a hot start. Ideally, Urias being at home here will be when he rights the ship.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. KC ($8,700): The AL Central is setting a new standard in offensive utility. All five teams are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, and three of them are in the bottom four. Even, so Kansas City and Detroit seem to have separated themselves in a battle for who will end up 28th and who will end up 29th on that front. The rookie Bibee has a 3.46 ERA through 12 starts, and he's only allowed one run over his last two outings.
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. SEA ($): Valdez may get back on the mound after healing up an ankle injury, and while he hasn't had his usual amazing groundball rate, he still has a 2.49 ERA through 16 starts, in part because he remains elite at avoiding home runs. In fact, since 2021 he's allowed only 0.5 home runs per nine innings at home. The Mariners are middling in runs scored, but with a bottom-10 batting average. Since Valdez is a southpaw, he can keep Seattle's lefties in check as well. I say "may," though, because though it had previously been reported that Valdez would be returning for this start, suddenly this seems less clear. There isn't any other pitcher I'd want, though, so if Valdez isn't on the mound, Urias and Bibee are the only two guys I'd consider.
Top Targets
While he's on a homer drought, Freddie Freeman ($6,300) is still racking up hits, and he's slashed .315/.393/.528 with 14 homers and 29 doubles. Plus, since the lefty joined the Dodgers he's posted an OPS over .970 on the road. Johan Oviedo doesn't allow many home runs, but he has a 4.61 ERA, and six of the eight homers he's given up have been to lefties.
The switch-hitting Jose Ramirez ($6,000) has seen his performance against lefties dip in 2023, but in turn his performance against righties has been on the rise. He has a .951 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, and also a .912 OPS at home. Jordan Lyles is in line to start, even though he's been dealing with an illness, but that's only good news for the Guardians. Lyles has a career 5.20 ERA, and this year his ERA is up to 6.68.
Bargain Bats
Unsurprisingly, Nathaniel Lowe ($4,600) has a .271 average and .364 OBP, and while his power numbers have dipped, that's mostly because last year he had an atypical campaign against his fellow lefties. While southpaws have handled Lowe this year, he has an .834 OPS against right handers. Kutter Crawford, a righty, has a 3.92 ERA, but that's with half of his appearances coming out of the bullpen. Plus, he has a 5.40 ERA at home.
Sure, Francisco Alvarez ($3,600) has a sub-.300 OBP, but he's a catcher who has hit 15 home runs and has real power. Through he is a righty, he has an .895 OPS against right handers, as his issues are against lefties. He also has an .867 OPS on the road. Ryne Nelson's three-game cup of coffee in 2022 has not proven illustrative for him, as this year has a 4.67 ERA. That includes a 7.09 ERA at home.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Mets (Carlos Carrasco): Corbin Carroll ($6,200), Christian Walker ($5,400), Lourdes Gurriel ($4,800)
With no strikeouts, a ton of walks, and over two home runs allowed per nine innings, it's no surprise that Carrasco has a 6.46 FIP. While he has a 4.91 ERA on the road compared to a 7.23 ERA at home, that road ERA is by no means good. Now, Carrasco has, as per usual, kept lefties fairly in check, but righties have hit .299 against him. As such, I am going with two righties in my stack against the right-handed pitcher.
Carroll is a lefty, but he's also the presumed NL Rookie of the Year with 18 homers and 24 stolen bases. He has an 1.006 OPS versus righties, so I am still going with his prodigious talent in my stack. Walker hit 36 homers last year and has 18 this season. His performance against lefties versus righties is relatively even, but his .914 OPS at home in 2023 stands out. As a righty, Gurriel has consistently been better against right handers, posting a .791 OPS in those matchups since 2021. In his first season in the desert, he has an .877 OPS at home.
Orioles at Yankees (Luis Severino): Gunnar Henderson ($4,700), Anthony Santander ($4,600), Jordan Westburg ($3,200)
Severino is coming off a brutal start that pushed his ERA up to 6.30. Now, he has a 9.27 road ERA versus a 2.55 home ERA, but that's over only three home starts. One of those saw him allow three homers to the White Sox. Righties have hit .304 against Severino and lefties have hit .270, so even at Yankee Stadium, I will stack three Orioles.
Henderson has cooled back down after a torrid run, but he has 11 home runs and five stolen bases. Plus, his issues tend to be with lefties, as in his career he has an .850 OPS versus right handers. Santander has 14 homers after he had 33 last year, having boosted his average to .266 as well. He's been better against lefties, and at home, but he's slugged .473 versus righties and .468 on the road, and that's good enough for me in this matchup. Westburg has just been called up for the Orioles, and he is their number-two prospect behind Jackson Holliday. He posted a .939 OPS at Triple-A, and the third baseman is a righty, so I'll take a shot on him in this stack.
